Colorado Rockies Not Talking Extension With Nolan Arenado
The Colorado Rockies and Nolan Arenado reportedly are not discussing a possible long-term contract right now. Is it the right move or could it end up being more costly in the long run?
If you were on Twitter last weekend, you might have seen a thread of posts from Rockies beat writer Patrick Saunders about Arenado. After advocating for Nolan as the game’s best third baseman, Saunders concluded the thread with this note:
FYI, from what I have been told, #Rockies and Arenado are not talking long-term deal right now.
— Patrick Saunders (@psaundersdp) January 8, 2017
Note the wording of this tweet: Saunders didn’t just say “I haven’t heard anything about a long-term deal.” He said he was specifically told (presumably by someone who would know) there is no discussion happening. Saunders is a reliable source of Rockies information, so it’s safe to assume that if he tweeted this, it’s probably a fact.
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While this news might be upsetting for Rockies fans, it’s not entirely surprising. Colorado just wrote a huge check for Ian Desmond, and they’ll have to make a decision about whether they can afford to retain Carlos Gonzalez after the 2017 season. Arenado is just starting the arbitration process this year, which means he won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2019 season at the earliest.
From the Rockies perspective, it makes more financial sense to wait until next off-season, when the Gonzalez contract and a number of the Rockies ill-fated bullpen experiments (Jake McGee, Jason Motte, Chad Qualls) come off the books. But even then, getting Arenado to agree to a long-term extension won’t be easy.
Sep 7, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) watches his ball on a home run in the ninth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
MLB Trade Rumors arbitration model estimates that Arenado will earn about $13.1M in 2017. If that number seems low, it’s because it is; the arbitration system is designed to control the salaries of young players.
Spotrac, a website that tracks the salaries of pro athletes, estimates that if Arenado on the open market right now, it would take a deal worth roughly $147M over eight years.
That price tag is high already, but as Arenado gets closer to free agency, it could get much worse for Colorado. We just saw the Los Angeles Dodgers give Justin Turner a four year deal worth $16M a year, and Arenado is a far better, younger player.
The MLB free agency market has been historically weak in recent years, and if Arenado’s agent is doing his job, he’s going to tell Nolan that he’s in line to get a massive contract from the team of his choosing if he can maintain his level of play for a few more seasons. The longer Colorado waits to sign him, the more they’ll be running the risk that Arenado decides he wants to see what he can get on the open market.
The Rockies don’t want to think about signing Arenado at the moment. That’s understandable because it’s going to take a huge, expensive contract, and they don’t have to get it done right this second. But if they don’t start coming up with a plan for locking down the star third baseman, and soon, then they may find that it’s already too late.
