Colorado Rockies: Will 2017 Set Records for Home Runs?
We always hear about how the ball travels a greater distance at Coors Field, the home of the Colorado Rockies. We always hear about the thin air and how the stats of Nolan Arenado, Larry Walker or any other tremendous Rockies hitter are inflated because of the elevation, correct? We also hear that this year’s Colorado team could be one of the most potent offensively in recent years. It’s been listed as one of the top offenses in Major League Baseball heading into the 2017 … but is it good enough to be record-setting?
That’s the main question I wanted to find out as I poured through some of the statistics and record books. After all, Colorado’s record for home runs in a season came in 1997 when the Rockies smacked 239 homers. Did you know that they were still second in the league that year in homers, finishing behind the 264 blasted by the Seattle Mariners?
In 1997, the Rockies had three players hit 40 or more homers, with Walker belting 49, Andres Galarraga hitting 41 and Vinny Castilla adding 40. Ellis Burks wasn’t far behind with 32 while Dante Bichette certainly made his presence felt with 26.
Ah, the days of the Blake Street Bombers. Good times indeed. But how have the Rockies done with the long ball since then?
Last season, Colorado smacked 204 homers, good enough for 10th in MLB. It’s also only the fourth time since 1997 that the Rockies have hit 200 or more homers in a season.
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So here’s the question … could Colorado eclipse the record-setting mark of 1997? It’s possible but let’s take a look at the Rockies lineup to see if it could happen.
Let’s plug in Colorado’s potential lineup along with each player’s 162-game home run average, courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Some of the numbers may be a bit skewed since Trevor Story and Tom Murphy haven’t played a full season in the Majors yet, but we’re going to add them in there for consistency’s sake.
Charlie Blackmon – 20
DJ LeMahieu – 6
Nolan Arenado – 32
Carlos Gonzalez – 31
Trevor Story – 45
David Dahl – 18
Ian Desmond – 20
Tom Murphy – 41
Tyler Anderson – 8*
Note: I added Anderson in here as the starting pitcher since he hit a homer last season, part of a monumental night for him in a July 9 win over the Philadelphia Phillies.
So add all of those numbers up and you get 221 homers, which would be the third-highest total since 1997. That’s great, but it’s not a record.
OK, let’s go crazy, spin the trade/acquisition wheel and add Mark Trumbo or Chris Carter into the mix. If you add Trumbo’s average of 34 homers or Carter’s 35 homers into the mix (since one of them would play for the Rockies) and subtract Blackmon’s 20 (since he theoretically would be traded and Desmond would move to the outfield), you still fall just short of the Colorado single-season record.
There’s no doubt that Colorado’s offense will be fun to watch this season. Will it break a record in the long ball department? Statistically, it seems unlikely.
