Dodgers or Mets? Yankees or Guardians? Ohtani and Judge breakouts? LCS predictions
And then there were four.
The Dodgers and the Yankees were preseason favorites to play for their respective pennants. The Mets and the Guardians were expected to reset in 2024 after finishing far short of the postseason last year.
None of that matters now, as they're all four wins from playing in the World Series.
With two fascinating matchups set for the league championship series, FOX Sports MLB experts Deesha Thosar and Rowan Kavner preview and predict the upcoming round in this week's roundtable.
1. Who is more likely to bust out in the LCS after a quiet division series: Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge?
Kavner: I think they both do, but I'll go with Judge here. The last time he played against Cleveland, he homered four times in three games. He has an OPS over 1.600 against the Guardians this year. Granted, he'll only be seeing the best of one of the top bullpens in baseball. But I think he can do some serious damage against that rotation and break out of his postseason funk. His last game of the Royals series was at least a little more encouraging.
Thosar: Judge. I think the Yankees as a team will be extremely confident entering the ALCS against the Guardians; New York has defeated Cleveland all three times they've faced off in the playoffs since Judge's 2017 rookie season. In their most recent October meeting, which took place in the 2022 ALDS, the Yankees eliminated the Guardians with help from homers from Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. But more than that, Judge has a .947 OPS across 37 career games against Cleveland, and he looked much more like himself in the final game against the Royals in the ALDS. He seems close to breaking out and having that signature postseason moment.
2. Whose pitching are you more confident in, the Dodgers' or the Mets'?
Thosar: The Mets'. Beyond the fact that the Dodgers will have to deploy a bullpen game not once, but twice to get through the seven-game series … the Mets' pitching staff is actually solid. Kodai Senga had one bad pitch to Kyle Schwarber in his postseason debut, and he's expected to go a bit deeper into his start next time out. That opposing hitters haven't seen him pitch in a year will be an advantage for him.
But the Mets' secret weapon continues to be Jose Quintana, who has allowed three earned runs over his past eight starts dating back to August 25, including two huge postseason outings against the Brewers and Phillies. The dominant stretch Quintana and the Mets have enjoyed is just not normal, and the rotation gives them a huge advantage right now.
Kavner: I'd take the Dodgers' bullpen here, but overall, in a longer series like this in which it'll be harder for them to ride their relievers day after day the way they'll have to, I have to lean the Mets overall. Who would have thought back in the summertime that would be the case? Yoshinobu Yamamoto finally delivered a solid starting performance, but it's hard to feel great about the state of the Dodgers' rotation, especially when Yamamoto will likely only be able to start once this series since he won't be going on short rest.
The Dodgers' pen worked wonders in a five-game series, with the pitching staff coming together to hold the Padres scoreless for the final 24 innings. But there might need to be multiple bullpen games for the Dodgers in this one, and that can wear a group out over a long series. The loss of Alex Vesia, who hurt his intercostal last series, is a significant one, and the Mets' Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana have looked sensational in October.
3. How would you set the Dodgers' starting rotation for this series?
Kavner: We know it'll be Jack Flaherty for Game 1, and the Dodgers will need some length out of him. Then it gets interesting. I would use a bullpen game in Game 2 with Landon Knack pitching the bulk innings, whether starting or with an opener, so the relievers can then reset on the off day before potentially three straight days of games. That would leave Walker Buehler for Game 3 and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for Game 4. Flaherty could come back to start Game 5. There's an off day before Game 6, so the Dodgers' relievers could reset again for another all-hands-on-deck bullpen game in that one with Buehler ready for a Game 7.
Thosar: Jack Flaherty for Game 1, followed by Walker Buehler for Game 2, then Yoshinobu Yamamoto for Game 3, and then a bullpen game for Game 4, and run that order back for the remainder of the series. It will be interesting if the Dodgers will have to stick to giving Yamamoto the five days' rest versus four, in which case they'd end up with two bullpen games and Yamamoto would only pitch Game 4 of the series. But this is the time to push him and take the risk of pitching their ace on four days' rest to optimize his usage within a thin pitching staff. I would avoid that second bullpen game if possible.
4. What is the Mets' blueprint to an upset?
Thosar: Their starters pitching as deep into games as possible and, of course, getting on base and continuing to set up big situations for Francisco Lindor. The Mets have the upper hand over the Dodgers with their starters (and that's including the excellent results of David Peterson out of the bullpen) and they can avoid overusing their somewhat turbulent bullpen if Senga, Quintana, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino do their thing for 5-7 innings. The Mets offense has, for the most part, been good at passing the baton, avoiding anxious at-bats, and trusting that the big hit will come eventually — even if it takes them nine innings to get a lead.
Kavner: I think the Dodgers' offense might be enough to get through, but I wouldn't even consider this an upset if the Mets win. Since June, they've been the best team in baseball. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have a decimated rotation, their starting shortstop out for the series and Freddie Freeman playing on one leg.
That said, as much late-game magic as the Mets have provided during their run, they'll need to flip the script a bit and get out to early leads. If their lineup, which has been one of the most productive this October, can get to Flaherty early, it not only puts them in the driver's seat of the series by potentially stealing a game in Los Angeles, but also puts the Dodgers in a real predicament moving forward with their heavy reliance on the pen.
5. Who would the Yankees rather have faced, the Guardians or the Tigers?
Kavner: The Tigers. Detroit was running on good vibes and a no-name pitching staff (outside of Tarik Skubal) through an incredible late-season run, but the Guardians were the better team all year, have Jose Ramírez and will deploy the best bullpen in the sport. Steven Kwan and Lane Thomas are also getting hot at the right time, perhaps giving the Cleveland lineup just enough to make this interesting.
Thosar: The Tigers. Even with Tarik Skubal being the biggest threat to the Yankees, after the Tigers and Guardians went to a Game 5 and Detroit was forced to use him, that would've limited the number of outings from Skubal in a potential ALCS to just one start — unless the series reached a Game 7. The rest of Detroit's rotation wasn't scary enough to pose as a legitimate threat to guys like Judge, Juan Soto and postseason hero Giancarlo Stanton. The Yankees offense would've outslugged the Tigers', and that goes a long way in a seven-game series. Cleveland will be more of a threat in that department with Jose Ramirez leading the way.
Bonus: Who will win each LCS?
ALCS — Yankees vs. Guardians
- Thosar: Yankees. I just said Cleveland would make this interesting, and I believe that, but the AL became the Yankees' to lose when the Astros got bumped out early. They have the offensive edge and the rotation edge in this series, and even the incredible Emmanuel Clase demonstrated that he's not infallible.
- Kavner: Yankees. Other than the fact that they've been down this road before, they have an extra weapon in Juan Soto this time around, which has led to one of their deepest lineups in years. I'm expecting Cleveland to serve as the elixir to Judge's postseason underperformance, and Gerrit Cole to raise it up a notch because he's not one to forget old grudges (yes, I'm referring to Josh Naylor implying he's Cole's daddy with one of the more memorable, and silly, home-run trots we've seen in recent Octobers). This is the easiest path the Yankees have had to the World Series in years, and I'd be surprised if they allowed themselves to get complacent when they're this close to winning the pennant.
NLCS — Dodgers vs. Mets
- Kavner: Dodgers. This one feels like a toss-up. Both teams are riding strong vibes into the NLCS, and both teams beat what I would consider to be the top two clubs in the NL to get here. They'll each have to avoid an emotional letdown afterward, and ultimately I think the Dodgers' experience in these spots help. I think their offense carries them in a series that could go the distance.
- Thosar: Mets. Pitching rules October, and I'm not convinced the Dodgers have enough of it to sustain them in a long series. As evidenced by some of my previous answers, I think the Mets have the arms to get it done because, well, they already have. Their most important postseason games have featured guys like Quintana, Manaea, Peterson and even Tylor Megill stepping up and staving off the opponent long enough to keep their own offense in the game. That's a major asset to have — even in the face of a talented Dodgers lineup.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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