Major League Baseball

Eury Pérez placed 7th in NL ROY race — but has the highest ceiling of any rookie

Updated Nov. 13, 2023 9:33 p.m. ET

To no one's surprise, Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll was announced Monday as the 2023 National League Rookie of the Year. All 30 BBWAA voters had Carroll first on their ballots. I was also one of 22 to support Mets right-hander Kodai Senga as the runner-up. My third-place vote, however, was a bit of a deviation from my fellow scribes, as I gave my final spot on the ballot to Marlins right-hander Eury Pérez.

I was the only voter to include him.

Whereas MVP and Cy Young offer 10 and five spots on their respective ballots, Rookie of the Year voters are afforded just three slots. In turn, I did not take the last spot on my ballot lightly, especially as a first-time voter. Even knowing the overwhelming likelihood that the top two finishers were all but certain, I still found it important to carefully consider — and eventually explain — how I settled on my final spot. There are certainly more important things going on in the world than a third-place NL Rookie of the Year vote, but I know many fans care deeply about every element of award results, so I figured the least I could do is offer some transparency behind my ballot.

This was a tremendous rookie class — and I didn't even have to worry about sorting through the exceptional crop of young talent in the American League. Still, the fresh faces in the NL left me no shortage of players worthy of consideration. Let's start at the top.

Carroll was an easy call. He and presumptive NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. joined a group of just nine players in MLB history to amass 25-plus homers and 50-plus steals in a single season, with Carroll being the first rookie to achieve the feat. His 6.0 fWAR wasn't just comfortably tops among all NL rookies, it was tied with Francisco Lindor for fifth among all NL position players. Voting for Rookie of the Year took place before Arizona's magical run to the World Series even began, but Carroll's star power was again on display in October, further validating his worthiness as the clear-cut winner.

Though I don't love evaluating older players with extensive pro experience in foreign leagues as "rookies," I can't just pretend they aren't eligible — and I found Senga's debut season in Queens to be overwhelmingly sufficient for a second-place vote. At 30, Senga was much older than the majority of his competition for the award. But I think the degree to which he adjusted to a new league — let alone a new country — while achieving similar levels of dominance to his Nippon Professional Baseball days should not be underappreciated, especially considering the skepticism upon arrival about his ability to hold up as a starting pitcher in the majors.

Senga led all rookies in both leagues with 166.1 innings pitched, and his 2.98 ERA was fifth-lowest among all qualified starting pitchers. His 11.1% walk rate suggests the concerns about his shaky command were warranted, but Senga was exceptionally good at avoiding any disastrous outings — he allowed more than four earned runs just once in 29 starts. Only Gerrit Cole, Blake Snell and Sonny Gray delivered more starts allowing two earned runs or fewer than Senga's 21. By far the most fun part of Senga's debut campaign was that his trademark "ghost fork" off-speed offering was somehow even better than advertised, registering the highest whiff rate of any individual pitch in baseball. In an otherwise dismal Mets campaign, Senga was the most obvious silver lining. He was fantastic.

After that? This is where the ballot got interesting.

On the mound, Andrew Abbott (2.7 bWAR, 2.2 fWAR, 118 ERA+ in 109.1 IP) was one of several breakout Reds rookies in 2023. He stepped up in a huge way as Cincinnati's rotation suffered a rash of injuries mid-summer. Bobby Miller (2.1 bWAR, 2.8 fWAR, 116 ERA+ in 124.1 IP) fulfilled a similar role for a 100-win Dodgers team that also lost multiple key arms to the injured list, and he only seemed to be getting better down the stretch while Abbott scuffled in September. Though not quite on Senga's level, both deserve ample praise for what they accomplished in their first go at big-league bats and clearly have bright futures.

Now, to the rookie hitters — of which there were many to choose from.

A promising prospect for several years coming up with Cleveland, Nolan Jones flourished in Colorado after being traded last offseason. And before you shout "COORS!" assuming his gaudy stats were merely a product of his new home ballpark, get this: He actually posted a higher OPS (.935) in 54 road games than he did in 52 contests in Denver (.928). That's the ninth-highest road OPS a Rockies hitter has ever posted in a single season (min. 200 plate appearances), with franchise icons Larry Walker and Todd Helton accounting for six of those seasons. Similarly impressive was Jones' ability to mash left-handed pitching (.902 OPS) nearly as well as right-handers (.945 OPS). The former third baseman also transitioned seamlessly to the outfield, where he has quickly become a plus defender with truly elite arm strength. The Rockies roster might not be pretty, but Jones looks like quite the find.

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James Outman, whose five second-place votes and five third-place votes made him a finalist, was a revelation for the Dodgers this year. After seizing a starting job in spring training, the 26-year-old Outman continued to demonstrate what he had at every MiLB level during his relatively low-profile ascent to the big leagues as a former seventh round pick: plus power, plus speed and plus defense in center field. That's a hell of a combination for a player on any team, let alone a 100-win club with sky-high standards like Los Angeles. An ugly May and June made it seem like Outman's breakout April was merely a mirage, but he course-corrected brilliantly (.852 OPS from July 1 onward) and played a huge part in L.A.'s second-half surge to another NL West title. He's now a clear foundational piece for the Dodgers moving forward.

At the same time, I also don't think Outman's case was all that dissimilar from that of 25-year-old Reds slugger Spencer Steer. Yes, Outman is unquestionably the better defender as a solid glove in center, with several advanced metrics rating Steer as well-below average at both third base and left field. Outman's baserunning is superior as well. However, Steer's ability to bounce between four spots (1B, 3B, LF, 2B) provided defensive value through different means by freeing up manager David Bell to use a far wider variety of lineups with an increasingly crowded position-player group as the season progressed. And the offensive production was strikingly similar, with Steer having the edge in the plate discipline department.

Steer: 156 G, 665 PA, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 15 SB, .271/.356/.464, 118 wRC+, 10.2% walk-rate, 20.9% strikeout-rate
Outman: 151 G, 567 PA, 23 HR, 70 RBI, 16 SB, .248/.353/.437, 118 wRC+, 12.0% walk-rate, 31.9% strikeout-rate

Both were awesome, and massively important to their teams. However, their similar cases ended up making it even harder for me to vote for one over the other for my third spot, leaving them both on the outside looking in.

While Steer's playing time allowed him to lead his team in all the traditional counting stats, there was another Reds rookie that impressed me even more: Matt McLain. As a member of the Cincinnati chapter of the BBWAA, I saw a ton of the Reds this season as they surged from 100 losses in 2022 to the thick of the wild-card race in 2023, thanks in large part to their outstanding group of first-year players. McLain stood out most among them, and I firmly believe he was Cincinnati's best player when he was on the field. As evidenced by my vote for Pérez, I didn't let a smaller sample rule out any candidate if the performance was good enough, and McLain's all-around impact warranted serious consideration.

As someone who has long followed the draft closely, I had been quite familiar with McLain dating back to his days as a high-profile prep player in Southern California. It's been clear for years that he was likely going to find his way to the big leagues one way or another, but his profile never screamed "star" to me. After a great career at UCLA, McLain was selected 17th overall by the Reds in 2021. A swing change in 2022 unlocked more power in Double-A, and that momentum carried over to 2023 in a big way. He posted a ridiculous 1.154 OPS in 40 Triple-A games before getting the call to Cincinnati in May, an arrival that helped spark what turned out to be an exceptionally fun summer for the Reds.

Watching him in person on a regular basis completely elevated my appreciation for his game. And you shouldn't even need to experience the eye test to be convinced — the stats jump off the page on their own. That he was able to be a 3-plus WAR player in just 89 games is a testament to his impact on both sides of the ball. He shined with the glove at both shortstop and second base while also racking up 16 homers and 14 steals in essentially half a season, with an oblique injury having put him on the shelf for good in late August. If I had a fourth spot on my ballot, I'd give the nod to McLain. He was that good, and I think he could be an All-Star as soon as next season.

All of these rookies were excellent candidates worthy of third-place votes, if not higher. Ultimately, after weeks of trying to sort through them using a litany of statistical measures, I defaulted to a far less scientific standard for my final slot. These are all great players and pitchers — future All-Stars, even. But when I watched each of them, my reactions amounted to various degrees of "wow, that's a really good player — that team is lucky to have him." Nothing more, nothing less. A complimentary sentiment, though not one that seized my attention in a distinct way.

But when I watched Carroll, I thought, "That's one of the best hitters in baseball."

When I watched Senga, I thought, "That's one of the best pitchers in baseball."

When I watched Pérez — the 6-foot-8 20-year-old throwing four different pitches for strikes and touching 100 mph — I thought, "What in the world am I watching?!"

That singular feeling was too hard to ignore.

The only other rookie to elicit such a visceral response from me based on the anomalistic nature of his physical ability was Elly De La Cruz, whom I was also lucky enough to witness up close on numerous occasions. But his end-of-season stats hardly measure up in the ROY conversation with the other top contenders. Pérez's — albeit in a smaller sample — definitively do.

After just 44 career starts in the minors, Pérez made his MLB debut on May 12 against Cincinnati as the first player born in 2003 to reach the major leagues. It didn't take long for his stuff — and stature – to stand out as must-watch whenever his turn in the rotation came around.

His four-seam fastball averaged 97.5 mph (fourth-highest among starting pitchers), but it was his slider and curveball that both ranked among the best individual swing-and-miss pitches in all of baseball. Pérez's 28.9% strikeout rate was the second-highest ever for a pitcher age-20 or younger, behind only Dwight Gooden's mark of 31.4% in 1984 and a tick ahead of José Fernández's 27.5% in 2013. The strong surface stats were backed up by the underlying metrics, as well: Pérez's .296 xwOBA allowed was identical to that of AL ROY runner-up Tanner Bibee and NL Cy Young finalist Logan Webb, and a point lower than AL Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray.

Decent company all around.

Pérez's only real bugaboo was the long ball, as he surrendered 15 homers across 91.1 frames, thanks in large part to a staggering amount of airborne contact allowed. His 25.4% ground-ball rate was the lowest mark among 141 pitchers with at least 90 innings in 2023. That's concerning even in a small sample, although it's also a stark departure from the more palatable 40% rate he posted in the minors. On the whole, his homer issues seem likely to regress in his favor, particularly as he develops better fastball command. Velocity alone won't always cut it against the best hitters on the planet, and Pérez learned that the hard way: His high-90s heater was far more susceptible to slug than any of his other pitches. Still 20 on Opening Day 2024, we know there's more than enough time for him to tweak his arsenal accordingly.

Even with the dingers inflating his FIP to an unremarkable 4.11 and his ERA to a still-remarkable 3.15, Pérez was tremendously consistent all season. His one major hiccup came when the historic Braves offense blitzed him for six runs on seven hits on July 1 before he could even finish the first inning. Granted, you could play this game with a lot of pitchers, but erase that lone blowup start, and Pérez's ERA drops to 2.61. It's not like I need to make excuses for him, though.

Even in his relatively limited sample of outings, Pérez delivered seven starts in which he allowed zero earned runs — the same number as the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Justin Steele, George Kirby, Gray and Cole. That included a stretch of three consecutive scoreless starts of at least six innings in June — something no pitcher younger than Pérez had ever accomplished. His 0.32 ERA in June was the 12th-lowest of any pitcher with at least five starts in a calendar month in the past 80 years. On Aug. 19, Pérez became the youngest pitcher (20 years, 126 days) to strike out at least 10 batters while walking zero as an opponent at Dodger Stadium, beating out previous efforts by 1985 Gooden in '85 (20 years, 294 days) and Madison Bumgarner in 2012 (23 years, 19 days).

Pérez's 19 starts are an undeniably small sample. They were also largely the product of Miami trying to play it safe — and for good reason. The vast majority of high-profile pitchers Pérez's age are having their workloads carefully monitored over the course of a delicately structured minor-league season. When Pérez forced the issue in May as one of the team's best options, the calculus had to change, at least somewhat. Considering Pérez had thrown just 77 and 78 innings in the previous two respective seasons, the Marlins opted to put his campaign on pause for much of July and into August in an effort to keep him fresh and not push him beyond his limits.

Yet even after managing his innings in an attempt to have him available when the stakes were highest, an injury described as "left SI joint inflammation" — the SI joint connects the pelvis and the spine — ended Pérez's season prematurely, costing him the possibility of starting a postseason game for the surprise wild-card-bound Marlins. It was a disappointing end to a marvelous year, though not one that should overshadow what Pérez was able to prove in his time on the mound.

His 19 starts might not seem like a lot, but this is where his age becomes relevant once again. Since Gooden in 1985, only 10 pitchers have made at least 19 starts in their age-20 season, with fellow Marlins phenom Fernández being the most recent in 2013. Five of the seven arms on this list — Rick Porcello, Clayton Kershaw, Félix Hernández, Zack Greinke and CC Sabathia — have won a Cy Young award.

Is this my formal declaration that a Cy Young is in Pérez's future, as well? Not quite. And as already demonstrated by his injury hiccup at the end of this season, betting on pitchers to sustain excellence is always a more harrowing endeavor than projecting position players' outlooks. However, this recent history is illustrative of how unusual it is for a starting pitcher to be given an extended opportunity at such a young age. In that sense, what Pérez was able to accomplish in 2023 with that rare opportunity — even an abbreviated sample — was enough to sway my support in his direction.

Pérez wasn't the best rookie of 2023, but I believe his talent is the most special.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He has covered baseball for his entire adult life, most notably for MLB.com, DAZN and The Ringer. He's a Mariners fan living in the Eastern Time Zone, which means he loves a good 10 p.m. first pitch. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.

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