Five questions for winter meetings: Will Dodgers land anyone?
David Price and Zack Greinke signed massive deals with new teams over the last week, but in some ways the 2015-2016 Hot Stove barely has begun.
Here are five questions confronting the baseball industry as it gathers in Nashville for the winter meetings:
1. How will the Dodgers respond?
The Dodgers' payroll exceeded $300 million this year, a record for any North American professional sports franchise. Yet, division rivals have outbid them for two marquee free-agent starting pitchers -- Greinke (Diamondbacks) and Jeff Samardzija (Giants) -- in as many days.
Did Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi suddenly forget they're running a multibillion-dollar enterprise, not the low-budget Rays or A's?
Now Dodgers officials are in the uncomfortable position of walking into a sprawling hotel, in which every agent and rival team executive knows they're desperate to add a pitcher. Not exactly a favorable environment for deal-making.
The Dodgers appear likely to land at least one of Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Hisashi Iwakuma, with our Ken Rosenthal reporting Saturday that the Dodgers were making a push for Iwakuma.
Teams can't keep outbidding the Dodgers . . . Right?
2. Who will be the first big-name outfielder to sign?
While the free-agent pitching market has produced a torrent of major news in recent days, the top outfielders have yet to sign. Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon and Dexter Fowler all remain available, with Chris Davis (primarily an infielder) unsigned, as well.
One potential complication: Several teams with the most obvious needs for outfielders -- the Orioles, Indians, Royals, Brewers and Padres -- have yet to signal that they're prepared to spend big dollars this winter. The Mariners, perpetually in need of outfield help, likely are set after signing Nori Aoki and Franklin Gutierrez and trading for Leonys Martin.
Still, we're destined to see action -- likely beginning this week. The Angels, Giants, Cubs, Mets and Cardinals are among the major-market teams interested in outfielders.
3. Will we see a true winter meetings blockbuster?
One of the biggest baseball trades in a generation occurred at Nashville's Opryland Hotel eight years ago, when Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis went from the Marlins to the Tigers in exchange for six prospects. That trade wasn't seriously discussed until after those meetings began -- a reminder that massive deals can materialize quickly while the entire industry is gathered beneath one roof.
The Marlins and A's have been steadfast in saying Jose Fernandez and Sonny Gray, respectively, are off-limits -- but you can be certain those teams will be asked again (and again) this week. White Sox ace Chris Sale is the more plausible blockbuster candidate, given his team's frustrating 2015 season and unlikelihood of contention in 2016.
The Braves have been hyperactive on the trade market this offseason but somehow haven't traded Freddie Freeman or Shelby Miller. Watch them closely.
4. How does Kenta Maeda fit into the pitching marketplace?
While not a superstar on the level of Yu Darvish or Masahiro Tanaka, Maeda has been among the very best pitchers in Japan for the past several years and is viewed as a possible No. 2 starter in the major leagues.
The Hiroshima Carp are expected to formally post him this week. MLB clubs then will have one month to negotiate with Maeda; the team that signs him will need to send the Carp a $20 million posting fee, in addition to Maeda's contract amount.
The Diamondbacks have scouted Maeda closely and haven't stopped looking at starting pitchers even after landing Greinke. The Padres are another intriguing possibility; San Diego general manager A.J. Preller has expertise in international markets and could trade Tyson Ross, James Shields or Andrew Cashner for offense if he signs Maeda.
5. After postseason berths, will Astros and Cubs trade prospects?
Privately, those in the Astros and Cubs organizations might tell you they didn't expect to reach the playoffs this year. Well, they did -- and held onto much of their deep prospect bases in the process.
Now comes the tricky part: Will they peel off a top player from their highly rated farm systems in order to acquire a difference-maker for 2016?
The Astros have spoken with the Reds about closer Aroldis Chapman since prior to the July non-waiver trade deadline. The Cubs, meanwhile, need an everyday center fielder and pitching depth; sources say Theo Epstein has been especially active in trade conversations recently.
And even as the industry spends hundreds of millions of dollars on free agents, prospects will be a universally accepted currency at the Opryland this week.
