Major League Baseball

From Carlos Correa to Albert Pujols: 11 questions that will define the MLB offseason

Published Nov. 3, 2021 8:36 p.m. ET

By Jordan Shusterman
FOX Sports MLB Writer

It’s never too early to start warming up the hot stove.

The party is only getting started in Atlanta, but for 29 other fan bases, it’s time to begin thinking about what our favorite teams can do in free agency or the trade market to build toward a championship.

Of course, "elephant in the room" doesn’t even begin to describe the ominous cloud of uncertainty hanging over this winter: the expiration of the CBA on Dec. 1. Negotiations between MLB and the players' association could put a freeze on roster moves during what is usually the most active part of the offseason.

But for the purposes of this exercise, I’m thinking strictly in terms of team construction and player movement. These are the questions at the front of my mind as we transition into offseason mode and look ahead to Opening Day 2022. The CBA negotiations might delay the answers, but these moves will happen at some point, and for now, we can have some fun ruminating on the possibilities.

1. Who will be in the Braves' outfield on Opening Day 2022?

Even before Atlanta went on its Cinderella run from under .500 on Aug. 4 to World Series champion, a lot of attention was being paid to Freddie Freeman and the fact that he hasn’t agreed to an extension. Making Freeman a Brave for life is surely still atop GM Alex Anthopoulos’ to-do list, but now there’s the added intrigue of what the team will choose to do with the midseason additions who helped carry Atlanta through October.

Plus, if we trust Alex Bregman’s reporting, Ronald Acuña Jr. won’t be back in time for Opening Day, so his right-field spot will need to be filled for the first month at least. Adam Duvall has a team option for $8 million that seems likely to be picked up, but the other three — Joc Pederson (NLDS star), Eddie Rosario (NLCS MVP) and Jorge Soler (World Series MVP) — are set to become free agents.

None of them is a perfect player — there’s a reason they were so easily acquired at the trade deadline — but it still seems more likely than not that they’ll parlay their epic second-half runs with the Braves into bigger contracts elsewhere, rather than return to Atlanta.

'MLB on FOX' crew talks with World Series MVP Jorge Soler

The "MLB on FOX" team spoke with Jorge Soler on the field after the Atlanta Braves' World Series Game 6 win. Hear Jorge discuss coming to Atlanta at the trade deadline and what it feels like to be named World Series MVP.

2. What will Carlos Correa’s contract look like?

As for the World Series losers, Houston appears to be on the other side of the spectrum when it comes to retaining its homegrown star. All indications are that the Astros appear unwilling to break the bank for their former No. 1 overall pick, which begs the question: What does breaking the bank even look like? How many years? How many bajillions of dollars?

Fernando Tatis Jr. (14 years; $340M) and Francisco Lindor (10 years; $341M) helped set the market with their respective contract extensions last offseason, but it seems realistic that Correa could top those figures as an actual free agent coming off a monster year. Reaching $400 million seems unlikely, but if Correa wants a lifetime deal like his fellow shortstop stars, $350-plus million could be in play.

3. Where will Max Scherzer be pitching in 2022?

Arguably the four best pitchers of this generation — Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke — are all free agents this winter. To me, Scherzer stands out significantly among the four. He finished 2021 the strongest (and healthiest), and he appears to be the safest bet to still be a bona fide ace in 2022.

The key to securing any free agent is money, first and foremost, but I am also intrigued to see which team can appeal to Mad Max’s unmatched competitive spirit and drive to win, particularly at this stage in his career. The dude has already made more than $200 million. That's not to say he’s going to be take any sort of discount anywhere, but I believe he’ll need to be convinced by the team that signs him that it’s World Series-or-bust from Day 1. The easy answer would be a return to the Dodgers, but I’m excited to see what other teams get in the mix for Scherzer.

4. Which members of the Dodgers' core will return?

We’ve grown so familiar with the faces of the Dodgers during their nine consecutive trips to the postseason that the notion that any of the main characters would play elsewhere is difficult to fathom. But we seem to have arrived at a pivot point for this franchise, with four of its most consistent presences over the past decade — Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, Corey Seager and Chris Taylor — all becoming free agents.

Seager seems as good as gone, but what about the other three? Kershaw was outstanding this year when he pitched, but his health appears to be a significant question moving forward. Does that make him more or less likely to return to L.A.?

Taylor is the kind of player who could fit on any roster, but he has been so instrumental to the Dodgers’ roster flexibility over the years that they might not be able to afford to lose him. They thought they could withstand Kiké Hernández’s exit, and that didn’t go so well. They might not want to make the same mistake by letting Taylor walk.

Jansen just had a bounce-back year of sorts, with his stuff looking as good as it ever has. But are the Dodgers willing to bank on him maintaining this elite level of performance for many more seasons? Every closer is capable of turning into a pumpkin at any moment, and you don’t want to get stuck with that hot potato (please forgive the mixed metaphors).

As usual, Andrew Friedman will be front and center for some of the winter’s biggest decisions.

5. How different will the 107-win Giants look?

Meanwhile, up the California coast, the Dodgers’ biggest rivals and baseball’s best regular-season team in 2021 also have some tough decisions to make. Buster Posey has somewhat shockingly decided to retire, turning down the $22 million option the team was committed to exercising. So first and foremost, the Giants need to replace one of the best catchers in baseball.

They saved themselves some trouble with another of their stars, agreeing to an extension with Brandon Crawford earlier this year. But a ton of other key members of their stunning 2021 campaign are set to hit free agency. Kris Bryant surely tops the list and seems like a great fit if the Giants are eager to keep him around, but he’ll have no shortage of suitors. Arguably more importantly, 60% of one of MLB’s best rotations (Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood) are free agents, not to mention Brandon Belt, who is hitting the open market.

I have so much trust in Farhan Zaidi that no matter whom he chooses to bring back or let go, I believe it’s going to work out, but it seems a bit under-discussed how different this team could look next year.

6. Will the Blue Jays be able to retain one, both or neither of Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien?

Despite falling just short of the postseason, Toronto was easily one of the most fun teams to watch in 2021, thanks in large part to the mega-breakout of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but also due to the spectacular seasons of Semien and Ray, who signed one-year pacts with the team last winter.

The Blue Jays have proven willing to spend big bucks to keep up in the highly competitive AL East, but it could be difficult to bring back both of those guys after the Cy Young and MVP-type years they just had. Which one do they prefer, if they can bring back only one? Or is the payroll ceiling even higher than we realize, and ownership is willing to join the upper-echelon big-market spenders such as Boston and New York and keep this group fully intact?

Either way, and even if the Jays lose out on both players, the future is awfully bright in Toronto.

7. What will Jerry Dipoto do?

This might be the Mariners fan in me talking, but I strongly believe Seattle will be active this winter. After a shocking, 90-win campaign that reenergized the fan base, this is the perfect time for the Mariners to transition from the "rebuilding" to the "building" phase of their competitive window as they push to finally end their infamous playoff drought.

All the ingredients are present for an especially hectic offseason. Flexible payroll and reported willingness to spend? Check. A fan base desperate to see a roster constructed with legitimate postseason aspirations? Check. A GM who loves making trades more than anyone and now has one of the deepest farm systems in the league to trade from? Super-duper check.

I don’t anticipate an AJ Preller-esque hot stove fever dream like last winter (and look how that turned out — YIKES), but I think Dipoto completes at least one big trade and one big signing before the team reports to Arizona in February. Buckle up, fellow M’s fans. It’s go time.

8. Which New York team will appease its exhausted fan base more?

There’s no such thing as an offseason that doesn’t involve chaotic speculation and overzealous free-agent fantasies from Mets and Yankees fans, but we could be in for quite a circus this winter after the seasons the New York teams just had. The first step for the Mets will be hiring someone to make these roster moves, and once that gets sorted out, you know owner Steve Cohen will want to flex his payroll muscle to help the Mets rebound from a disastrous 2021.

Conversely, we know exactly who is in charge in the Bronx, but Brian Cashman appears to be at a crossroads of sorts with the way the current roster is constructed, and big changes, in the infield especially, could be on the way. It’s also continually unclear if the team is willing to start spending wildly again, as the fans believe they should be doing, or will continue to play an exhausting game of limbo with the luxury-tax line. Either way, there is no version of this offseason that will not involve scorching hot takes from all five boroughs and every kind of social media available. Log on with caution — it’s gonna get ugly.

9. Where will the shortstops land?

For years leading up to this winter, this has been the biggest question on fans’ minds. Francisco Lindor signing the mega-extension with the Mets before the season took one of the marquee names off the market, but the other four — Correa, Seager, Trevor Story and Javier Baez — made it to free agency sans extensions. The pecking order might have shuffled slightly over the years, but each player still comes with enthralling pros and worrisome cons. Is this going to turn into a game of musical chairs in which one shortstop is left stranded and has to settle for a one-year deal? Or will each of them find a long-term home? And here’s another wild card: What if there’s a mystery team out there that still considers Semien a shortstop and thus prefers him to the other four? OK, that's a separate question …

10. Will the two Matts still be on the A’s on Opening Day?

Between Bob Melvin going to San Diego with no compensation in return and continued rumors about the viability of the Athletics remaining in Oakland, all signs seem to point to a winter of further turnover and change for the A's. Plus, this organization has a track record of shipping out stars as they begin to get expensive in arbitration, a la Tampa Bay. After a fairly successful season and with a decent core still present to build around, it would be pretty brutal to see the A's take a hard left turn toward rebuilding now. But if Oakland wants to restock a barren farm system and set its sights on a new era of Athletics baseball — possibly in another city — trading Matt Chapman and/or Matt Olson would be a place to start. For the fans’ sake, I hope I’m wrong.

11. Will anyone give Albert Pujols a major-league contract?

When the Angels parted ways with The Machine in May, two months into the final year of his seemingly eternal contract signed in 2010, a lot of us believed that was it. An unceremonious end to one of the greatest careers in baseball history.

Then the Dodgers scooped Pujols up and turned him into a legitimate platoon star, allowing him to reach October for the first time in eight years and remind us that we should never be too quick to write off the best players of all time. He’s now playing in the Dominican Winter League for the first time, looking to prove that he still has something to offer; he continues to insist that retirement is not on the table quite yet.

But is anyone going to give a guaranteed contract to a 41-year-old DH who can hit only lefties? A universal DH would certainly open some more potential markets, but it’s difficult to fathom a competitive team giving Pujols the number of at-bats he’ll presumably want as he looks to add to his eye-popping career totals. Then again, that’s basically what the Dodgers just did, and it mostly worked out for them. And if Pujols is just looking to get to 700 home runs or whatever, he doesn’t need to be on a good team. We could see another Ichiro-getting-his-3,000th-hit-with-the-Marlins situation. Maybe it’ll be the Marlins! We’ll see!

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball analyst for FOX Sports. He lives in D.C. but is a huge Seattle Mariners fan and loves watching the KBO, which means he doesn't get a lot of sleep. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.