Major League Baseball

Gerrit Cole, Spencer Strider lead Pitching Ninja's Cy Young candidates

Published Jul. 25, 2023 5:35 p.m. ET

Since we’re well into the second half of the season, I figured now would be the perfect time to kick off the first in my recurring series breaking down where I see the Cy Young races sitting in each league.

American League

Current Leader: Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

Cole is a workhorse and unquestionably an ace. He’s thrown the most innings in the AL and has been dominant most of the year. He leads the league in pitching WAR and is second in ERA. He’s also done a better job preventing the long ball this season, cutting his home runs allowed almost in half (from 1.5 per game to .9) and is tied for the MLB lead in quality starts.

I’ve always considered Cole a mix between a bully and a scientist on the bump. Nothing shows that more than this overlay of his tunneling of an up/in fastball with his slider, combining both fear and brilliant pitching:

His strikeouts are down a bit this season, but he’s still averaging a very solid 10.7 per nine innings. Cole is a perennial Cy Young Contender but has never won the award. Will this be his year? Right now, I’d say YES.

Contenders

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

McClanahan has some of the best pure stuff in the AL and is currently third in the league in ERA. His fastball touches 100 mph and he also has a 29% or higher whiff rate on all three of his secondary pitches.

While McClanahan can throw as hard as any starting pitcher in the AL and has filthy breaking pitches, I consider his best pitch to be his vicious changeup. The opffspeed pitch is a modified circle change and can be downright unhittable, as it's produced an amazing 53.8% whiff rate for the season.

Just look at this incredible movement:

McClanahan has been bitten by some minor nagging injuries but has competed through them. If he stays healthy for the remainder of the season and finishes strong, he can potentially claim the AL Cy Young.

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

Valdez can spin cutters and curveballs as well as anyone in the game. He has over a 40% whiff rate on both his curveball and cutter, and hitters are batting under .180 on both of those pitches. He’s currently fourth in the AL in ERA at 2.89 and third in pitching WAR. He has been the ace of the Astros’ pitching staff this season and is undoubtedly one of the top pitchers in the league.

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

Nasty Nate has quietly been outstanding this year. He’s second in baseball in pitching WAR and first in the AL in ERA. He’s also third in the league in innings pitched. While Eovaldi’s strikeouts per nine doesn’t jump off the page (8.1), all he does is get the job done and is a big reason for the Rangers' success this season.

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

Gausman is second in MLB in both strikeouts and K/9 behind only Spencer Strider. The Blue Jays ace also leads MLB in FIP at 2.77. His splitter is one of the most dominant pitches in the game, leading to both George Kirby and Joe Ryan "borrowing" Gausman’s splitter grip.

Hitters must worry about Gausman’s unhittable splitter so much that it makes his fastball that much more dangerous — Gausman’s fastball is rated the fourth-best in baseball in terms of run value.

Here’s an example of what makes Gauman’s splitter and fastball combination so deadly:

If he puts together a solid second half of the season, expect Gausman to be right up there in the Cy Young voting.

Dark Horse: Felix Bautista, Baltimore Orioles

While relief pitchers don’t often receive a ton of Cy Young attention, Bautista has had a historic season thus far, with an ERA under 1 and striking out nearly 2 hitters per inning. He has an outrageous ERA+ of 457 and gives up only 4.2 hits per 9 innings. The Mountain’s splitter has almost a 59% whiff rate and his fastball, which has an average velocity of over 99 mph, has a nearly 40% whiff rate. He’s been dominant all season, and if starting pitchers falter down the stretch, he could be in a position to garner some votes.

I also wanted to give a shoutout to Shohei Ohtani, who might have the filthiest stuff in the AL … while also leading MLB in home runs and triples. Amazing.

National League

I consider the NL race to be wide open, and whoever has the strongest second half will likely take home the award.

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

In my opinion, Strider is flat-out the most dominant and electric starting pitcher in baseball. He leads MLB in strikeouts with 189. His 14.6 K/9 not only leads baseball but it’s also on pace to break the record for K/9 by a starting pitcher for a season. Strider is also tied for the MLB lead in wins. The only thing keeping him from being the clear leader in the NL race is his 3.78 ERA. That number doesn’t accurately reflect his outstanding performance this year, however. The fact that he’s in a virtual tie for the league lead in FIP (2.88) and has a stellar SIERA (2.56) and xFIP (2.56) is much more illustrative of Strider’s season. If he finishes the second half strong, expect him to win the award.

Strider’s fastball and slider combo is usually stuff seen only in elite closers. His slider is an elite pitch and has over a 57% whiff rate, while his fastball is one of the best in baseball among starting pitchers, averaging abover 97 mph with over a 30% whiff rate. Even Strider’s third pitch, his changeup, has a 50% whiff rate.

Here’s what Strider’s stuff looks like from a home plate view (you can see why hitting against him is so tough):

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

For a good part of the season, Zac Gallen has been one of the best pitchers in the NL. He’s tied for the MLB lead in wins with 11 and is one of the best pure "pitchers" in baseball. If you love watching pitching, Gallen is a treat. He prepares thoroughly but can even inadvertently beat you sometimes!

He hasn’t been quite as dominant the past couple of months, but if he regains the form he had earlier in the season, he can finish strong and win the award.

Blake Snell, San Diego Padres

Snell has been the hottest starting pitcher in baseball over the past couple of months, allowing only four earned runs since May 31st (0.62 ERA) and lowering his ERA for the season to an MLB-best 2.67. Amazingly, Snell has over a 49% whiff rate on all three of his secondary pitches (curveball 57.6%, slider 52% and changeup 49.2%) and he’s averaged the second-most strikeouts per nine in the NL at 11.9. Although Snell has thrown only 108 innings this season, if he can keep up this torrid pace and go deeper in his starts for the remainder of the year, it’d be tough to deny him his second Cy Young Award.

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

Webb leads MLB in innings pitched and has been very solid all season. His slider and changeup have been especially good this year and he also possesses a wicked two seamer.

Webb has struggled occasionally over the past couple of months, however, and he’ll likely have to finish the season strong to have a chance at winning the award.

Dark horse:

Jesús Luzardo, Miami Marlins

Luzardo features some of the best pure stuff in baseball and is tied for second in pitching WAR in the NL. His slider and changeup have been particularly nasty this year. His slider has over a 52% whiff rate and is a real weapon, while his changeup has a nearly 40% whiff rate. He was outstanding in his last outing against the Giants with a career high 13 strikeouts. If he maintains that level of dominance for the remainder of the season, he can be a contender for the Cy Young Award this year, and he certainly has the stuff to be a contender for many years to come.

I also want to give a quick nod to Corbin Burnes, Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele, each of whom have each been very good this year and could be considered contenders, as well as Clayton Kershaw, who might have been the NL favorite before his latest injury.

I’m very excited to see how these Cy Young races end up and will give periodic updates for the rest of the season!

Rob Friedman is an MLB pitching analyst for FOX Sports whose work has been featured on many Major League Baseball broadcasts. Follow him on Twitter @PitchingNinja.