Major League Baseball

Graveman to Maldonado to Correa: The anatomy of a series-clinching play

Updated Oct. 23, 2021 1:19 p.m. ET

By Jake Mintz
FOX Sports MLB Writer

First, let’s set the scene.

Before we introduce the characters for the ALCS’s dramatic final act, we need to know the setting: Game 6, top of the seventh inning, one out. Boston trailing Houston 3-2 in the series and 2-0 on the night. Runners on first and third, courtesy of a J.D. Martinez walk and an Alex Verdugo single.

Astros starter Luis García and his Jheri curl mullet had been downright dominant all night, carrying a no-hitter into the sixth, but he had since been removed, the bullpen since activated. Houston had pre-trade-deadline pickup and sinker-balling reliever Kendall Graveman on the bump. Boston pinch hit former and/or current Red-Sock-past-his-prime Travis Shaw, whom the team picked up in August.

The entire game and series and season hung in the balance. A ball in the gap would most likely tie the game. A walk would load the bases and most likely push the tired-looking Graveman out for a new arm. With the count full, Verdugo took off for second on the pitch as Graveman reared back and blew a down-the-pipe heater right by Shaw. Houston catcher Martin Maldonado sprang up and delivered a pinpoint throw to Carlos Correa’s glove, right into the incoming Verdugo, who was out by a mile.

Inning over. Game effectively over. Boston’s season? A soon-to-be distant memory.

No matter your thoughts on the Astros (and many of y’all let me know after I wrote about how most of the players are sneaky likable), this is an absolutely electric baseball play. It is high art, a beautiful sports dance, an elaborate drama full of compelling characters.

So let’s break down this season-defining play, from how the chess pieces got to the board in the first place to the motivations, mishaps and magnificence of everyone involved.

Graveman and his 3-1 changeup

John Smoltz talked about this on the broadcast in real time, but Graveman’s decision to throw Shaw a changeup on the 3-1 pitch was pretty shocking. Graveman is a fastball/slider guy. This season, he threw 72% heaters and 17% sliders but only 6% changeups. In fact, he hadn’t thrown a change in more than a month, since Sept. 12 against Shohei Ohtani (remember him?), who ripped the pitch for a single.

Changeups, especially for hard-throwing relievers, tend to be much more difficult to throw for strikes than other pitches. But even though Graveman had just thrown 20 consecutive fastballs and hadn’t thrown his changeup in more than a month, either he or Maldonado had enough confidence to call on it in that spot and completely alter the dynamic of the at-bat.

Why was this pitch selection such a big deal? Because by tossing the change in the 3-1 count, Graveman forced Shaw, who had just seen four heaters, to think about something else. That changeup was certainly in the back of Shaw’s mind when Graveman blew his doors off one pitch later with a fastball right down the middle.

Travis Shaw and his slow bat

With all the mixing and matching that happens in October, every postseason team needs a certified Left-Handed Bench Bat, a guy who is maybe a bit defensively limited but swings from the left side and can go out there and just run into one. A Dan Vogelbach type, if you will. Back in mid-August, Boston didn’t really have one of those guys.

Franchy Cordero was kind of brought in to be that, but he struggled mightily. So did Marwin González. Top prospect Jarren Duran came up and failed to make an impact. Neither Danny Santana (who still made the roster) nor Jonathan Araúz showed enough pop. Lefty first baseman Josh Ockimey OPSed just .775 in Triple-A Worcester and didn’t force a call-up. Kyle Schwarber was brought in, but he started every day. So the Sox went out and snagged old friend and large lefty hitter Shaw off the waiver wire as sort of a Plan F lefty bench bat.

Shaw was solid if unspectacular down the stretch for Boston, but he looked overmatched in October, like a once-good player who’d lost some bat speed and couldn’t catch up to the fastball anymore.

If any of those lefty gents listed above perform a bit better, Shaw probably lingers on waivers and never returns to Boston and is never late to the Graveman fastball. But alas ...

Martín Maldonado, defensive wizard

Maldonado was the fourth-worst hitter in baseball this year. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances, he had the fourth-lowest OPS+ in MLB behind (ahead?) of just Jackie Bradley Jr., Kevin Newman and Andrelton Simmons. But Houston kept running the veteran catcher out there every day because he’s a maestro behind the dish.

Maldonado is highly lauded for how he handled the young Houston pitching staff, but he also has one of the most game-changing throwing arms in the league. This season, he threw out about 40% of runners, fourth-highest in the league. The sheer presence of his steal-stopping howitzer kept runners from even trying.

That’s why after backup backstop Jason Castro came up clutch with a game-winning, pinch-hit single in Game 4, Maldonado still started the next two games, even though he’s anemic at the plate. A team such as Houston, with such an incredible offense, can afford to essentially punt the nine-spot in the lineup.

It’s all for moments such as this. Maldonado put that throw right on the bag and had Verdugo toasted, even though Graveman was slow to the plate (around 1.6 seconds, per Alex Cora postgame). It was an amazing throw from an inept hitter who gets to play baseball every day anyway because he’s so damn good at defense. I love it.

Alex Cora’s steal sign

So why was Verdugo running in the first place? Some were critical of Alex Cora for having him attempt to steal in that spot, but here’s what he had to say afterward:

"But that's one of those that it's a 3-2 count with a sinkerballer. We were trying to score one, and we felt that we had the right guy at first. The times were 1.6, 1.65, and it just mattered that their catcher just came out shooting, and he made a perfect throw."

Cora was basically arguing that a sinkerballer such as Graveman on the mound is likely to induce a ground ball, which almost certainly would have meant a double play with the slow Shaw running. Putting Verdugo (who is a league average runner) in motion keeps Boston out of the double play, thus allowing Martinez on third base to come in and score.

It’s pretty sound logic, actually. You’re leaning on your hitter to make contact, assuming that any ball put in play is likely to be a grounder. If Shaw rolls over to second base and Martinez scores on a fielder’s choice, cutting Houston’s lead to one, Cora looks great.

Unfortunately for him, the Red Sox and most of New England, Shaw instead whiffed on the fastball, and Verdugo completely bungled the steal attempt.

Verdugo’s big blunder

Verdugo didn’t just get a bad jump. He got a horrendous jump. In fact, he wasn’t even ready to steal. Graveman had thrown over on the previous play, and Verdugo took his time getting back to his feet. That meant that by the time Graveman started his motion again, Verdugo’s lead was much too small for a runner trying to steal a base in a pivotal moment of a postseason game.

It’s a game of inches. If Verdugo takes his lead earlier, he gets another half-step at least. He’s also not caught flat-footed and is in a more athletic position, more prepared to blast off toward second. As it was, he was out by about a foot, a foot that was there for the taking. The little things, y’all, they matter.

Granted, this play didn’t make or break the ALCS. Houston was already up in the game and the series. Boston, had it executed this play correctly, still would have needed another run to tie and would have needed its bullpen to shut down the potent Astros order.

But this wonderful play, the strike 'em out/throw ‘em out heard ‘round the world (or at least East Texas) will endure in our memories as the play of this series. And it will do so because of all those little things, those incremental advantages and disadvantages, the transactions and decisions and indecisions, all of which led up to this one unforgettable moment.

Jake Mintz is the louder half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball analyst for FOX Sports. He’s an Orioles fan living in New York City, and thus, he leads a lonely existence most Octobers. If he’s not watching baseball, he’s almost certainly riding his bike. You can follow him on Twitter @Jake_Mintz.