Greinke's gone, but L.A.'s big mistake was not acquiring Hamels
I'm not going to say the Dodgers made a mistake by failing to give Zack Greinke $206 million. The contract is insane, everyone knows it's insane, and just as with the Red Sox and David Price, the only question is when the Diamondbacks start to regret it.
Maybe the commitment should not have been such a concern for the Dodgers — sunk costs are a part of doing business in baseball, and if any team can absorb sunk costs, it's everyone's favorite $300 million underdog. Still, the Dodgers' far bigger mistake occurred last July, at the non-waiver trade deadline.
Remember?
That's when the Dodgers failed to acquire Cole Hamels.
The D-backs will pay Greinke an average of $34.33 million annually. The Rangers, because of the way they structured their trade with the Phillies, effectively will pay Hamels slightly more than $13 million annually for the next three or four years, depending upon whether they exercise his option.
That, in baseball's new math, is practically J.A. Happ money.
Hamels — who, like Greinke, will pitch next season at 32 — was owed $81.7 million at the time of the trade. But the Phillies reduced the Rangers' burden by including $9.5 million in the deal and absorbing the remaining $32.7 million on left-hander Matt Harrison's contract.
The Rangers parted with five prospects in the trade, including three who are now rated among the Phillies' top four, according to MLBPipeline.com. The Dodgers, according to sources, would not part with any of their top three youngsters — center fielder Joc Pederson, third baseman/shortstop Corey Seager, lefty Julio Urias — and also wanted significant cash in the deal.
In time, Pederson, Seager and Urias all might prove cornerstones, a major part of the Dodgers' plan to build a sustainable model not just for the present, but also the future. But why couldn't the Dodgers have put their trade capital to better use, building a package around prized righty Jose De Leon, piling on other prospects and taking on the entirety of Hamels' remaining obligation?
The Dodgers certainly flexed their financial might in the wild three-team deal they did make, absorbing the contracts of Mat Latos and Michael Morse and dumping Hector Olivera just two months after paying him a $28 million signing bonus. They also landed two young players, left-hander Alex Wood and infielder Jose Peraza, and two veteran relievers, Jim Johnson and Luis Avilan.
The net result for 2015?
A combined minus-2.4 in Wins Above Replacement, according to baseball-reference.com.
Hamels, meanwhile, was good for 1.7 WAR in two months with the Rangers.
Wood, 24, and Peraza, 21, also are pieces for the future, and maybe they will make the Dodgers' move look better in time. But the Dodgers surely knew that Greinke would opt out; he was in the middle of a historic season. And they would have controlled Hamels for as long as they will control Wood, albeit at much higher salaries.
Ah, but the prospects, the Dodgers were reluctant to give up the prospects. Well, this is a franchise in the middle of a massive buildup of young talent, a team buying seemingly every Cuban youngster on the market, a team that is capable of regenerating prospects like none other.
The Dodgers have committed more than $40 million to international amateur players during the current signing period, which opened last July 2. Their total investment likely will come to more than $80 million, including a 100-percent penalty they must pay for exceeding their allotted bonus pool.
They've got plenty of prospects now, and they'll have even more prospects in the future — prospects who will help balance the payroll, prospects who will provide ammunition for trades.
They could have extended themselves for Hamels.
There is little doubt that Andrew Friedman, Farhan Zaidi and Co. are building a long-term monster, one that could dominate the NL West for years to come. But for now, the Dodgers need to worry about wasting Clayton Kershaw's prime. No matter which pitcher or pitchers they acquire, they almost certainly will not find one who will push Kershaw the way Greinke did. The benefits of such internal competition cannot be quantified; nor can they be assigned a dollar value.
The Dodgers had a huge advantage when their roster included two aces, an advantage they could have extended by getting Hamels.
That was the big mistake. Not the failure to pay Greinke.
