How a Radical Lineup Change Could Empower Yankees' Aaron Judge
The New York Yankees are chasing the second Wild Card in the final few laps of the season. Taking away from the excitement is the struggling giant Aaron Judge.
Flash back to July 8, when Yankees manager Joe Girardi spontaneously shuffled his standard lineup. Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury flip-flopped the leadoff and No. 2 spots, and have resumed those duties ever since. Girardi didn’t have a sabermetric theory behind the change, other than searching for consistency in the offense.
At the time, the Yankees were 42-44 and buried 7.5 games under the AL East-leading Orioles. “Searching” loosely translated to “grasping at straws.”
Girardi’s club is now chasing the Wild Card in the final few laps of the season. Taking away from the excitement, unfortunately, is struggling giant Aaron Judge, who’s giving his skipper a reason to make another lineup revision.
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Rarely anyone breaks into the majors like Judge’s teammate Gary Sanchez has. Sanchez’s 11 home runs in 23 games and consecutive Player of the Week honors both made rookie history. He is already worth 2.3 Wins Above Replacement (using Baseball Reference‘s version of WAR) and boasts a robust 1.239 OPS. A hitter with those accolades and numbers doesn’t make a pitcher all too comfortable.
Sanchez has energized the entire Yankees team into playoff contention. Now, he can specifically lend a helping hand to Judge by giving him lineup protection.
Judge-then-Sanchez was a dynamic that Al Pedrique — the International League’s Manager of the Year — found prosperous for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders, who’ve clinched an MiLB playoff spot.
At some point, Judge must learn to hit in any given part of the Yankees lineup to be truly successful. But a little protection could be useful while Judge adjusts to major league pitching.
Judge is exposed and solvable in the 8-hole, and none of Girardi’s caboose options — Ronald Torreyes, Tyler Austin, Aaron Hicks — are causing pitchers’ knees to tremble. So hurlers have had the leeway to exploit Judge’s weakness by painting the outside black with breaking balls.
Pitchers wouldn’t have such a luxury with the Yankees’ catching phenom on the prowl. A byproduct of Judge’s steady diet of curveballs is that he often works deep counts.
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That scenario equates to Judge getting a few more fastballs, and we all know what he can do with those:
Of course, Judge is the main culprit to blame for his ice-cold initiation. The 6-foot-7 right fielder has whiffed an alarming 26 times in 60 plate appearances (43.3%). A lineup change wouldn’t assure a turn-around, but the Yankees must get creative if they want to make the postseason.
With that being said, I’ve made a few radical changes to Girardi’s everyday lineup. The Yankees are trailing the second AL wild card by 2.5 lengths. If Girardi is determined to contend — and he is — this starting nine arrangement could lead them into October (keep in mind that 100 is league average for weighted Runs Created Plus):
It’s time to modify the Ellsbury-Gardner tandem. They both have slightly above-average on-base percentages, but neither steal many bases anymore. Ellsbury’s 18 is tied for 27th-best, Gardner’s 13 is tied for 37th. They aren’t must-bats in the first inning. However, Sanchez is at the moment; and if Judge is to bat in front of Sanchez, this is the optimal way to do it.
If the Yankees can get Judge going, his enormous talent could propel them to a playoff berth. Even still, he’s a cornerstone to the franchise’s youth movement, so his development shouldn’t be on the back burner — regardless of standings.
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