Major League Baseball

How John Smoltz thinks the Mets, Padres should approach MLB trade deadline

Published Jul. 22, 2023 9:12 p.m. ET

Several MLB teams will have a big decision to make over the next week: to buy or to sell at the trade deadline.

For most teams, their decisions are likely set in stone already, as four months of baseball should be enough to figure out what kind of team you have. Conventional thinking would tell you that teams who are buyers are in the playoff picture or are within striking distance of a playoff spot, while it's the exact opposite for teams that are sellers.

With a little more than a week left before the Aug. 1 trade deadline, there are two teams that might defy conventional wisdom. The New York Mets and the San Diego Padres entered Saturday, July 22 with records below .500 and were both at least 5.5 games out from the final wild-card spot (5.5 games for the Padres, six for the Mets).

And yet, both teams have made major investments like we've never seen before in MLB history over the last couple of years.

The Mets have the largest payroll in MLB history ($348 million, per Spotrac) and the Padres have the third-largest payroll in the majors this season ($246 million).

Even though both teams are underperforming — and may very well go down as the two most underperforming teams in MLB history — they still have players that can fetch big returns if they opt to sell.

The Mets would likely get a lot if they traded Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. Same for the Padres, if they traded Blake Snell or Josh Hader. San Diego could even get bold and trade Juan Soto to recuperate some of what they lost in the ransom they gave up for him at least year's deadline.

Padres, Mets have the two most disappointing seasons in MLB history

When I spoke with MLB on FOX analyst John Smoltz during his weekly appearance on "Flippin' Bats," he shared that he believes both teams need to be within four games or fewer in order to have a realistic playoff shot and avoid being sellers.

"They haven't scored," Smoltz said of the Mets' woes that have them at 45-51. "If they could score runs, which I thought would not be a problem for them, their pitching is way better in the rotation to handle that. If they flounder around the same distance behind, it's unrealistic. If it's just one team they had to chase, then seven games, eight games isn't that big of a deal.

"But if there's four teams they have to chase and get in front of, you've got be [around] four games or less at the trade deadline before they can make that decision."

The Mets' offense ranks 20th or worse in several key stats entering Saturday. It is 20th in runs, 21st in batting average (.237) and 20th in OPS (.718).

The Padres' offense has also found itself in a similar spot. While it is 14th in runs, it is also 24th in batting average (.234) this season, as several of San Diego's star batters have had long stretches of poor hitting.

Smoltz seemed a bit more bullish on the Padres and their chances to play in October.

"From the pitching end, I think they've got the pitching to get into the playoffs and certainly got the pitching to go deep," Smoltz said. "I don't know why their offense is not in sync. The word ‘old’ has been thrown around, but they're not that old. They're seasoned, and they should be scoring more runs."

Even as both teams are still below .500 this late into the season, Smoltz thinks that the Padres and Mets will battle it out for the final playoff spot, as there are five other teams ahead of them battling for the final three NL wild-card spots.

That's why Smoltz doesn't think either team should be sellers entering the trade deadline.

"When you think of what each team has on their roster, it would be very difficult to reboot," Smoltz said. "I think you take a pass on the year. It didn't work out. You retool a couple scenarios next year, and you're right back at it again.

"They put this team together not just for one year, but also for a long haul," Smoltz added on the Padres. "I don't know if you're able to start selling to your fan base, ‘We’re going to start all over again.'

"It would not go over well in San Diego if they did that."

FOLLOW Follow your favorites to personalize your FOX Sports experience