Major League Baseball

How John Smoltz views AL West, NL Central races following exciting series

Updated Jul. 29, 2023 8:36 p.m. ET

A pair of unexpected division battles entering the season led to some of the most exciting games in baseball this past week.

In Houston, the Astros won a pair of one-run games over the Rangers to help them cut into Texas' division lead by a game. The Brewers, meanwhile, won two games in their-three game series over the Reds, helping them extend their lead in the NL Central by a game entering the weekend.

Lead MLB on FOX analyst John Smoltz believes that the results of those series between the top teams in the AL West and NL Central are indicative of who'll end up winning each division.

"Given the roster and the injuries and some of the things that are going on, I think Texas has a better roster right now. But I don't know if they're going to end up being the better team," Smoltz said of the AL West race on Saturday's "Flippin' Bats." "Again, Houston's just as relentless, and they know how to win."

Note: Smoltz offered his thoughts before news broke that the Rangers were making a trade for Mets pitcher Max Scherzer.

The Astros have dealt with injuries for much of the season, with many of their key players from last year's title team missing a fair amount of time. Jose Altuve has played just 34 games this season. Yordan Alvarez missed most of June and July before returning to the lineup on Wednesday. Michael Brantley has yet to play this season and Luis Garcia's season ended in early May when it was ruled he needed Tommy John surgery.

Yet, they're 58-46 and sat just two games back of the Rangers for the AL West lead entering Saturday. And that's with the Rangers having a league-best run differential (+151) and scoring the most runs in baseball this season (606).

Smoltz pointed to the Astros' 10-9 win on Monday as the "perfect example" of Houston's resilience. The Astros trailed by multiple runs twice in that game before scoring four runs over the seventh and ninth innings to come out with a walk-off win.

"Even if they got a lot of guys missing, they're missing Altuve and Alvarez, and yet they're still finding ways to win baseball games," Smoltz said. "They had [Monday's] game lost a couple of different times. But they were able to come back and win that game just shows you what they're capable of, despite their injuries.

"So, I think, at the end of the day, Houston comes out on top, but both are going to be in the playoffs."

While Smoltz implied that the AL West might come down to a battle of will, he thinks the NL Central will come down to experience, something that the upstart Reds currently lack.

"There's a psychological advantage that goes to Milwaukee," Smoltz said. "I've always said that experience is when you put yourself in a position to utilize it. Cincinnati's learning how to win. Exciting talent. They've had a streaky year already with types of winning and losing streaks. I think Milwaukee's been there and done that. They know how to win even though they have a different roster. They get a slight edge from me because of that experience they know how to win close games."

The Reds are the team that has the youngest average age (27.7 years old) among teams that hold a playoff spot entering Saturday's slate. Almost all of the Reds' best players are younger than that though, with Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Will Benson, Jonathan India and Elly De La Cruz carrying much of the lineup.

Smoltz thinks that the Reds' youth could end up being a benefit though, recalling a run one of his Braves teams made early in his career.

"When you're young, you can say it's bliss, like you don't know what's going on and just go for it," Smoltz said. "In 1991, we didn't know anything. We didn't have experience. We were able to run the table in the second half. It's not like we have a written formula where once a team has experience over you, they're a guarantee."