Is Colby Rasmus a potential fit for the Cleveland Indians?
By Jacob Rosen
The Cleveland Indians have an interesting offseason ahead. As World Series-winning GM Dayton Moore just mentioned, the team’s starting rotation is playoff-quality and “one of the best in the game.” After that? There certainly are some question marks. And they likely begin with the outfield.
Heading into next season, the Indians have Michael Brantley penciled in at left field. Beyond Brantley? It’s a bit of mystery in the possible alignment and future of Lonnie Chisenhall, Abraham Almonte, Jerry Sands, up-and-coming stud Bradley Zimmer, and a variety of other prospects and utility men.
Early payroll research by Jordan Bastian and Mike Brandyberry indicates the Indians have maybe $10-15 million in financial wiggle room, based on the team’s typical spending amounts. This factors in initial arbitration estimates and how the team sent over significant money to the Atlanta Braves in the Nick Swisher/Michael Bourn trade. Of course, a potential new minority investor could change this paradigm.
So far, the team declined its option on Ryan Raburn at $3 million citing short-term financial flexibility. The team’s needs are fairly clear: A legitimate outfielder, more hitting, potentially another back-of-the-rotation starter, and additional bullpen depth. Sure, Raburn could fit into that hole with his proven success against left-handed pitching, but the Indians are likely exploring all options for a full-time regular.
One potential option? Free agent Houston Astros outfielder Colby Rasmus, who FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron, in his top 50 free agent predictions, suggests the Indians could look toward:
The Indians need a center fielder, and preferably one who can hit for a little bit of power, as their line-up leans a bit too much towards slap-hitting at the moment. That combination isn’t super easy to find this winter, but Colby Rasmus does provide enough defense to cover the position and some legitimate thump in his bat, so I have the Indians adding Rasmus for $42 million over three years.
Rasmus, 29, just played out the 2015 season on a one-year, $8 million free agent deal with the Astros. Previously, he avoided his final arbitration season by agreeing to a $7 million deal in 2014 with the Toronto Blue Jays. So, given his success on the field – especially his big 2015 postseason – and past contracts, he’d be expected to receive some type of eight-figure annual salary over multiple years.
In his seven MLB seasons averaging 133 games per year, the left-handed hitter has averaged 24 doubles, 20 home runs, 59 RBI and a .245/.313/.443 batting line. He’s a legitimately above average hitter and could immediately contend for the title as the best power bat for the Tribe (as sad as that might seem). He has compiled 16.1 bWAR and 17.0 fWAR during his career, an average of about 2.5 wins per season.
Defensively, he spent his entire pre-2015 career in center field. However, Houston – drastically unlike Cleveland – had a bevy of career center fielders last season and so Rasmus split his time all over the outfield, mostly in left. Most defensive metrics, which obviously should be viewed with some skepticism, rate him as an average outfielder. That’s of course an improvement over many recent Indians players.
Rasmus is listed as FanGraphs No. 22 available free agent this offseason. The site’s contract crowdsourcing experiment gave him an estimated $12.4 million average annual contract value. Other top hitters include Jason Heyward ($22.7M), Yoenis Cespedes ($21.5M), Justin Upton ($20.4M), Chris Davis ($20.5M), Alex Gordon ($18.6M), and Dexter Fowler ($13.8M).
Some Tribe fans have become frustrated with the team’s constant bargain shopping of mediocre outfielders – David Dellucci, Jason Michaels, and David Murphy come to mind. But the team has missed badly on the three biggest contracts in franchise history: Travis Hafner’s extension and Swisher and Bourn. With only $10-15 million of expected space, it would be a huge risk using most of it on a single player. Fans also typically clamor for a right-handed bat, while Rasmus would be yet another lefty.
Lonnie Chisenhall likely showed enough defensively in his second half of the season to deserve a full-time stint as a right fielder. Almonte, who had a fairly solid overall season in his 51 Cleveland games, would ideally be a fourth outfielder behind some proven everyday center fielder.
Personally, I’d be quite thoroughly surprised by the Indians making a big move for an outfielder like Rasmus or Fowler. The fit is obvious. A new minority investor could change the typical payroll environment for the Indians. But as of now, I just don’t see it happening.
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