Is Yadier Molina deserving of Hall of Fame induction?
Every rivalry in baseball sees one player seemingly dominate the other team. To the Chicago Cubs, Yadier Molina is the personification of evil and the face of the enemy. Molina defines what the Cardinals have done for years, which is have success, especially against the Cubs. Could he be worthy of the Hall of Fame?
Here, we can dive in and objectively take a look at Molina and ask whether or not he truly deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, using numbers and the best of my knowledge of the election process.
The first question to be asked is “What defines a Hall of Fame player?” At this point, a member of the Hall of Fame could be called “a player with an elite skill set, great career statistics, and that remained popular in the eyes of Hall of Fame voters.” These days, the Hall of Fame is less determined by stats and more determined by reputation.
Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens, Pete Rose and more are snubbed by the Hall simply because their reputation is not quite as good as other players–or, in Rose’s case, because he’s ineligible. Steroid or gambling accusations aside, what those players did on the field deserves recognition, but this article is not out to question them.
Instead, we want to know if Molina fits into the description listed above. The part about popularity is, admittedly, extremely objective and truly something that no one can know. However, Molina’s teams have had a large amount of success, with two World Series wins, four National League Pennants, and eight National League Central titles in his 13 seasons as the Cardinals’ primary catcher. He has performed well in the spotlight of the playoffs, made six consecutive All-Star games from 2009 to 2015, and won eight gold gloves, proving him very popular among fans and sportswriters alike. Molina’s reputation is strong in the game and he certainly has a prestigious pedigree. It is safe to assume he would meet this part of the definition.
So, then, does Molina fall into the “a player with an elite skillset, great career statistics…” part of my definition? Thus far in his career, Molina has been entirely unimpressive at the plate. Hitting .281/.335/.394 for his career with 103 home runs, 674 RBI, and a 98 wRC+ (weighted runs created +), Molina has not provided much by way of hitting. A slash line and numbers such as this are certainly not Hall of Fame worthy. In fact, the wRC+ puts him just below league average as a hitter.
However, there is a lot more to Molina than his career slash line and wRC+. First, Molina put together three seasons in a row of elite mashing, from 2011 to 2013, where he hit over .300 and slugged well over .450 in all three years. He put together 15.8 WAR (according to Fangraphs) over this stretch, good for 12th in all of baseball. Using Fangraphs’ OFF/DEF stats, (Offensive/Defensive runs), Yadier was the third best offensive and second best defensive catcher in baseball over this span of three years. This would be described as Molina’s peak, and being one of the best in baseball at his position during his peak certainly aides Molina’s cause offensively.
Over his career, from 2004 to 2016, Molina sits fifth among catchers in WAR and is the worst offensive player among the top-five. But he is not being considered for the Hall of Fame only for his offense. Molina currently holds a 193.9 DEF stat over his career as a catcher, which is the highest in baseball. For reference, since 2004 Adrian Beltre (considered a sure Hall of Fame pick by many), has a 159.8.
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The next highest catcher in that time frame is Russell Martin, with 126 DEF. Molina has 126 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) as a catcher. Martin has 47. Molina has absolutely been both the best defensive catcher in baseball and the best defensive player in baseball since his arrival in 2004. This would seemingly place Molina under “elite skillset, great career numbers”, but one thing lacks – how Hall of Fame voters have valued excellent defensive catchers in the past.
Comparing Yadier Molina to all catchers all time is just a bit unfair. The game changes from era to era, so only the comparison above to his peers can really accurately portray how great a player truly was. But for the sake of the argument, let’s assume that Hall of Fame voters look to see what kinds of players they voted for in the past, and take a look at Yadier Molina against all catchers. He sits 37th among all catchers in WAR with 31.4, but should move into the top 30 by the end of his career. He also sits at fifth among all catchers in DEF value.
Those in front of him are considered incredible catchers, but for different reasons. Ivan Rodriguez is the best defensive catcher of all-time, and by nearly 100 points in DEF. Gary Carter was an elite offensive and defensive catcher. Carter is in the Hall of Fame, and Rodriguez may be elected next year–and certainly should be. However, both were excellent hitters and own much better offensive numbers than Molina.
The other two ahead of Molina in all time DEF are Bob Boone and Jim Sundberg. If you have never heard of these two players before, join the club–*editors note: Psh, Millennials. Bob Boone is Aaron and Bret Boone’s father, both of whom played in the early 2000’s and are a bit more famous. Boone played for the Royals, Angels, and Phillies, and Sundberg played for the Rangers and Royals. Unlike the first two, neither of them hit particularly well, boasting .254/.315/.346 and .248/.327/.348 career slash lines, respectively.
This offensive deficiency resulted in neither one receiving Hall of Fame balloting. Molina’s eight Gold Gloves and offensive deficiency is remarkably similar to Boone (seven Gold Gloves) and Sundberg (six Gold Gloves). Molina had a far better prime (the aforementioned 2011-2013 seasons) and played in a different era, but there can be no denying the similarity. Both Boone and Sundberg led teams to the World Series, much like Molina did with the Cardinals, and won. It is remarkable how similar Molina is to these two non-Hall of Fame catchers. Both, it would appear, fall into the “elite skillset” part of the definition, but just don’t have “great career statistics.” Unfortunately for Yadi, he too falls under this fate.
Obviously, Cardinal and Molina supporters will respond saying, “Molina makes more of an impact than just offense and defense! He boosts the Cardinals’ rotation with his leadership and presence!” To this, I regret to inform you that Molina’s presence hasn’t made the Cardinals’ starting rotation even a top-five rotation in WAR from 2004-2016.
Among all pitchers, they sit seventh, and among just starters, they sit 6th. In team ERA/FIP/xFIP, they are second-best to the Dodgers. They do lead Major League Baseball in groundball percentage, and are tied for second in HR/9, meaning Molina-led teams don’t give up as many home runs and get more ground balls. They are second in walk percentage, as well. But the Cardinals under Molina have the seventh lowest strikeout rate in the Major League Baseball.
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Truthfully, they have been quite good, but have also benefited from Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Michael Wacha, and Jaime Garcia. Molina has made a large number of pitchers look better, but this seems to be from the strategy of the Cardinals to induce more ground balls. Former pitching coach Dave Duncan, who was working his magic way before Molina arrived, deserves some credit here too.
Molina can only do so much back there. Unless there was a clear distinct advantage for the Cardinals regarding pitcher numbers, this value cannot be visibly determined as “more beneficial” to a very successful 13 years in the Cardinals’ history. And thus, will not be counted here.
One final point could be Yadier Molina’s framing skill. While good, it is not even the best in his family. Molina’s best framing season, according to the StatCorner.com framing data, is 2008, where he gained an astounding 200 calls for the Cardinals. This is still 132 behind Jose Molina in 2008, who is also the MLB leader since 2007. Framing seems to be a valuable part of a catcher’s worth but just how much impact it has remains to be seen. Framing data from StatCorner doesn’t even encapsulate Molina’s whole career, as the data begins in 2007, so it is doubtful Hall of Fame voters would even consider this.
I have come to have a lot of respect for Molina’s numbers. His title of “best defensive catcher in the major leagues” may be starting to crumble as he ages, but he certainly belongs in the conversation due to reputation. He has had a marvelous career, and will go down as a top-five, all-time defensive catcher. His unfortunate problem is that over half of the top-five defensive catchers are not in the Hall of Fame.
It appears that the Hall of Fame doesn’t value Gold Gloves and World Series impact quite as much as Molina supporters would hope. Yadi has performed admirably for the Cardinals since 2004, and may yet be popular enough to make the Hall of Fame. But historic information and career statistics suggest that no, Yadier Molina is not a Hall of Famer.
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