Major League Baseball

Is Yankees OF Giancarlo Stanton a Hall of Famer? Ben Verlander breaks down his case

Updated Sep. 8, 2023 4:51 p.m. ET

Giancarlo Stanton has put together one heck of a career, and that was brought to light one more time as Stanton belted his 400th career home run on Tuesday against the Detroit Tigers in a 5-1 Yankees win. He's lost a step around the bases and is limited in the outfield at this point, but that bat has continued to deliver some of the moon shots he has become known for over his career.

Stanton is having a down year considering he's hitting just .203, but still has connected on 22 home runs at this point, giving him an outside chance at another 30-homer season, but most likely settling for 25 with September baseball already underway and the season winding down. If Giancarlo fails to reach the 30-home run mark, it would be the first time he played 85 or more games in a season and didn't reach 30 dingers since 2016.

Take another step back, and it gets you thinking. Stanton is now in his age 33 season, he has 400 career home runs and four guaranteed years left on his contract before a team option in 2028 for $25 million that looks likely to be declined. If he keeps playing for another four seasons and stays on his current track, is he worthy of enshrinement in Cooperstown? Do his numbers stack up? What does he need to do to make sure he can make the cut?

Is New York Yankees' Giancarlo Stanton a Hall of Famer? | Flippin' Bats

Ben Verlander discusses whether or not New York Yankees' Giancarlo Stanton will be a Hall of Famer if he reaches 500 career home runs.

First off, when you talk about Giancarlo Stanton's career, you cannot forget his Marlins tenure, in which for six- or seven-year period he was one of the best players in the game of baseball. That includes an incredible 2017 campaign when he was the MVP of the National League.

That MVP is one of the keys to his Hall of Fame case. Consider that 42 of the 89 players who have won MVP in the past have been enshrined in Cooperstown. Essentially if you have an MVP, you are a coin flip from baseball immortality.

Then comes the key number everyone will talk about — 500 home runs. Stanton just blasted his 400th home run on Tuesday. He is 33 years old, but he certainly can get to 500. He has 22 homers in just 87 games thus far this season. The power is definitely still in there despite a drop-off in the other parts of his game. Whether he can get to 500 is most likely going to come down to if he can stay healthy and play enough games. If he does manage to reach that milestone, I think we are talking about a Hall of Fame player. There have only been three outfielders or DHs who have hit 500 or more home runs and not reached the Hall of Fame: Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Manny Ramirez. Unlike those three, who have alleged connections to PED's, Stanton has not been connected to any banned substances.

Moreover, the eye test tells you his impact on the game. He is one of the greatest power hitters of this generation. Nobody has hit balls harder or further. He completely changed the power game, but staying healthy will be the No. 1 factor.

One knock against Stanton is his somewhat all-or-nothing approach. As of now, he projects to finish with about 1,800 hits, which could be tough because looking through the Hall of Fame, no player who has been active and played 80 percent of their games in the outfield or at DH since 1960 has been elected to the Hall of Fame with fewer than 2,000 hits. The power is still there, but the average and overall ability to pick up hits has waned for him.

At this stage of his career, he also doesn't draw enough walks to make up for the low batting average — his on-base percentage is .281 and last year's was barely higher at .297.

From a sabermetric perspective, he's racked up 42.7 career wins above replacement per Fangraphs, and the approximate bar for most Hall of Famers begins at 60.

Stanton is not going to get into the Hall of Fame based on what he did with the New York Yankees. His Hall of Fame case is mostly going to be built on the basis of his time with the Miami Marlins. Will that stretch of dominance be long enough? Has he potentially played himself out of the Hall of Fame with how the latter portion of his career has gone?

Ultimately, to me, it comes down to whether he can reach 500 home runs. Despite the health concerns, I think he can do it, and if he does, I think he's a Hall of Famer

Ben Verlander is an MLB Analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the "Flippin' Bats" podcast. Born and raised in Richmond, Virginia, Verlander was an All-American at Old Dominion University before he joined his brother, Justin, in Detroit as a 14th-round pick of the Tigers in 2013. He spent five years in the Tigers organization. Follow him on Twitter @BenVerlander.

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