Major League Baseball

Jarred Kelenic trade a potential steal for Braves, precursor for Mariners

Updated Dec. 4, 2023 1:46 p.m. ET

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — So far this winter, the hot stove has been a walk-in freezer. Leave it to Jerry Dipoto — he of the 158 career trades as head of the Seattle Mariners — to blast up the burners just as the winter meetings commence. On Sunday night, Dipoto unleashed a shocker, sending pitcher Marco Gonzales, first baseman Evan White and outfielder Jarred Kelenic to the Atlanta Braves for a pair of unproven pitchers: Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips.

It's not the blockbuster Juan Soto trade everyone's itching for, but this five-player swap could have lasting repercussions that shape the remainder of the offseason. For the Braves, it's a creative way to address their hole in left field and an indication that they'll spend the rest of the winter adding depth and fortifying their pitching staff. For Seattle, it's either an embarrassing and cowardly sign of frugality or the first move in a pivot for the ages.

Let's dig in.

Why the Braves did it:

Kelenic could be a real prize, and the Braves gave up shockingly little to get him. The Mets took the blonde Wisconsinite with the sixth overall pick in 2018 and promptly sent him to Seattle in the Edwin Díaz/Robinson Canó trade. The top prospect shot up the Mariners' minor-league ladder but struggled mightily in his first two big-league stints in 2021 and 2022. This past season was a different story. As a 23-year-old, Kelenic took a massive offensive step forward. The strikeouts were still silly-high, but the sinewy left-hander began to impact the baseball in a way he hadn't before (109 OPS+ this past year; 66 OPS+ previous two seasons).

An all-time stupid, self-inflicted injury — he kicked a cooler in July in frustration in the dugout and broke a bone in his foot — kept him out for much of Seattle's playoff push, but Kelenic still figured to be a key cog in the Mariners' lineup next season. Welp.

For Atlanta, Kelenic is a savvy addition. The Braves let Eddie Rosario go a few weeks ago and were left with a glaring gap in left field. Many people thought they might address that hole through free agency by adding a veteran like Tommy Pham or Michael Brantley, but Kelenic provides a much higher ceiling. There's also a chance Kelenic gets thrown into another deal for a high-end starting pitcher like Dylan Cease, as the starting rotation remains Atlanta's biggest weakness.

Gonzales, meanwhile, is a useful if unspectacular addition. A rash of pitching injuries left the Braves exposed in 2023. Their hyper-reliance on a cadre of young, unproven pitchers didn't sink their season — those league-leading 104 wins say otherwise — but it's clear general manager Alex Anthopolous wanted a bit more veteran reliability among the depth options. Gonzales, who missed much of 2023 with an elbow issue, is supposed to be healthy by spring training and should make Atlanta's Opening Day roster. At this point, he's a No. 5 starter on a good team who shouldn't go anywhere near a playoff start. That's still valuable for a competitive team like the Braves.

White is a dead-weight contract at this point. It's a bummer, because injuries have rendered him into a shadow of his former self, but the 27-year-old isn't likely to rediscover his old form in a new environment. If White gives the Braves literally anything at all, that's icing on an elaborate and expensive cake. He's a salary they had to gobble to get the good stuff.

Braves grade: A-

— Jake Mintz

Why the Mariners did it:

If you're just tuning into the Mariners' offseason now and truly scratching your head over what in the world they could possibly be thinking, it's important to know that this move has fit with the theme of their winter thus far: unloading unfavorable contracts in pursuit of payroll flexibility to enable additions that better align with the front office's vision for the 2024 roster.

A team seemingly under immense pressure to improve after a disappointing 2023 would not be cutting payroll for the heck of it — one would think, at least. This series of moves simply must be a precursor to another series of moves intended to, in all likelihood, upgrade upon what was an especially strikeout-prone offensive group.

The problem is that such a hypothetical addition (or additions) made to restock the now thinned-out lineup is not especially clear as things stand.

The payroll math is crucial here. The Mariners finished the year at a projected $140 million. After the season, Dipoto stated very plainly that they would have a higher payroll in 2024 than they did in 2023. He reiterated this sentiment again following Sunday night's trade.

By trading Eugenio Suárez to Arizona and this trio of players to Atlanta, Seattle has cleared over $30 million in 2024 commitments, putting its current projected payroll at roughly $115 million, according to FanGraphs. If Dipoto was being honest when the winter began and payroll is expected to actually go up this year, that means the Mariners have at least $25 million to play with to make offensive upgrades.

But there's a big difference between going from $140 million to $150 million and from $140 million to, say, $180 million-plus. We have no sense of how much higher the Mariners want to go, making it awfully difficult to know the degree to which they have room to add via trade or free agency.

A blockbuster move for Soto would be one hell of a pivot, but if payroll is increasing minimally, Soto's projected $30 million arbitration number would just about hit the assumed limit on its own. Soto would make the Mariners' lineup much better, of course, but is this offense one player away? And is paying a significant cost in such a deal worth having Soto for likely just one year before he hits free agency? Probably not, even if landing Soto would undoubtedly satiate the fan base's desire to add legitimate impact in the short term.

Instead, Seattle probably has far more complicated things cooking that involve more than one player. The Tampa Bay Rays duo of Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena do make sense as long-term targets, but each could cost a lot. Beyond Tampa Bay, teams like the Cardinals and Orioles still stand out as realistic trade partners with younger bats worth targeting.

On the free agent market, it's no secret how few impact bats are available. Neither Cody Bellinger nor Matt Chapman would come especially cheap, likely making it harder to fill multiple roster holes at once while adding a bat with far less certainty than a guy like Soto for a similar average annual value in 2024.

All of which is to say: We know there are more moves coming. There must be. But considering the lengths the Mariners have gone thus far to ship off important pieces of the roster in an effort to clear room for such a massive mystery box is, at the very least, risky.

Completely irrespective of what this trade means for the rest of their winter plans, this deal simultaneously marks the end of three tremendously different Mariners stints between Gonzales, White and Kelenic. Gonzales was the second-longest tenured member of the organization, a dependable lefty acquired from St. Louis way back in 2017 who blossomed into a team leader and multi-time Opening Day starter. His final year in Seattle was unfortunately marred by injury, and his presence was especially missed down the stretch when the club's younger starters were running on fumes.

Speaking of injuries, former first-rounder White played in just two games in 2023 before undergoing his second hip surgery in three seasons. His career has been completely derailed by injuries and underperformance at the MLB level since signing an extension with Seattle before even reaching the big leagues.

And then there's Kelenic, a former phenom centerpiece of the massive Canó/Díaz blockbuster who seemed to have finally found his big-league footing in Seattle only to see his career take another unexpected turn. Once considered a future potential face of the franchise in the Mariners outfield alongside Julio Rodríguez, Kelenic will now face far less pressure to live up to the hype on a loaded Braves team likely hoping he can contribute as a down-lineup bopper.

For all three of these players to be shipped out at once is a lot to process for a Seattle fan base that has spent so much time getting to know them and rooting for their successes through significant ups and downs.

As for the return, Kowar was just acquired by Atlanta from Kansas City in exchange for Kyle Wright. Over his three partial big-league seasons, Kowar has been knocked around to an extreme degree but throws hard. Additionally, Seattle has a better recent track record than Kansas City for turning big arms like Kowar into effective relievers, so maybe there's something here.

Phillips has yet to throw a professional pitch after undergoing Tommy John surgery during his senior year of high school in 2022, but he was still regarded high enough for Atlanta to take him in the second round. He's a big Texas right-hander who threw quite hard as an amateur and could be one of Seattle's top pitching prospects if everything clicks post-surgery. It's a nice flier to have included in a deal like this, but hardly one to bank on as anything certain.

As Mariners GM Justin Hollander said Sunday night, the offseason isn't over on Dec. 1. It's true. But sequencing during the hot stove season greatly affects perception, and as things stand now, it's hard to parse the grand plan here. There's plenty of winter left, but there's also plenty of work to do for Seattle to make this roster look demonstrably better.

Mariners grade: C-

— Jordan Shusterman

Jake Mintz, the louder half of @CespedesBBQ is a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He played college baseball, poorly at first, then very well, very briefly. Jake lives in New York City where he coaches Little League and rides his bike, sometimes at the same time. Follow him on Twitter at @Jake_Mintz.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He has covered baseball for his entire adult life, most notably for MLB.com, DAZN and The Ringer. He's a Mariners fan living in the Eastern Time Zone, which means he loves a good 10 p.m. first pitch. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.