Major League Baseball

Juan Soto sweepstakes: Is he the Yankees' to lose? Analyzing 9 potential suitors

Published Nov. 5, 2024 8:00 a.m. ET

Let the Photoshopping begin.

Juan Soto is officially on the open market, which has just about every fan base rendering the young superstar in their teams' uniform. From now until he signs on the dotted line of a contract that could set a Major League Baseball record, the Soto sweepstakes are expected to be a dizzying frenzy for the most prized free agent in this year's class — and one of the most coveted ever.

Even though Soto said he's "going to be available for all 30 teams," and each of MLB's clubs would no doubt love to have him in their lineup, they're not all set up to go deep into October, and they can't all afford him. Soto's agent, Scott Boras, is expected to propose a $500 million contract as the starting point in negotiations. Depending on the demand and desperation for the 26-year-old slugger, that number could skyrocket past $600 million.

So, that gives us a better idea of which teams are practical landing spots for Soto, whose camp hasn't made it clear how many years he's seeking with his future team. It's believed that Soto wants to play into his 40s, so a 14-year deal could be on the table. A 22-year-old Fernando Tatís Jr. set the record for the longest pact in MLB history when he signed a 14-year extension with the Padres in 2021.

Could Soto be next? Let's take a look at how he might fit in with several potential suitors. This isn't a definitive list of the teams that will throw their hat into the ring for Soto. Every front office, even the executives leading small-market clubs, should at least try to go after the Cooperstown-bound generational talent. Rather, these are the teams that seem the most likely to be involved based on their history of spending, roster makeup, and path to contention.

New York Yankees

It would be berserk for the Yankees to let Soto walk away after all that he accomplished in just one year, all while adjusting to playing in New York like he's done it his entire career. After trading for Soto last winter and enjoying a charmed season together, the Yankees have the best chance of any club to lock him up long term. But any hesitation on the dollar amount could point the slugger in the direction of the team making the highest offer. The worst mistake team owner Hal Steinbrenner could make is believing Soto should take a hometown discount. (He's not going to.) Soto was the final piece of the puzzle that, after seven trips to the postseason in the Aaron Judge era, finally got New York a ticket to the World Series.

Alas, it was only six months ago at the MLB owners' meetings in Manhattan that Steinbrenner said: "I'm gonna be honest, payrolls at the levels we're at right now are simply not sustainable for us financially. It wouldn't be sustainable for the vast majority of ownership [groups], given the luxury tax we have to pay."

That's not something the owner of the richest MLB franchise should be saying if he wants to prioritize winning above all else. The Yankees can absolutely afford Soto, but they won't be playing nice with the league from a competitive-balance tax perspective if they agree to give him somewhere around $50 million per year, which of course would be in addition to Judge's $40 million average annual value, and Gerrit Cole's $36 million AAV.

Steinbrenner's comments this year and his involvement in commissioner Rob Manfred's labor policy committee indicates he is willing to diminish the Yankees' ability to outspend other teams. We will now wait to see if there's a world in which he willingly pays Soto, while also being a spokesperson for owners to try and stay under the luxury tax.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Shohei Ohtani didn't just help the Dodgers by being the presumptive 2024 National League MVP and winning a championship in his first season with them; his heavily deferred contract also allows the club to be in the mix for free-agent superstars for years to come. The thing about the Dodgers is that they don't need another superstar's slugging bat in their star-studded lineup. They also have Ohtani locked up at designated hitter for the next nine years, with Mookie Betts patrolling right field. So, going after Soto would mean he either has to play left field, where his defense could be a problem in the latter years of his contract, or he could eventually move to first base, where he's never played professionally.

Even if the Dodgers should bolster their pitching staff rather than add another Hall of Fame-level bat, that doesn't mean they have to choose between one or the other. They could stun Soto with an outrageously high AAV to go with a shorter-term contract. If Soto was to hit free agency again at, say, age 30 or 31, and he has a couple more titles under his belt, that wouldn't be the worst thing for Boras and his highly profitable client. Either way, Los Angeles should be high on Soto's list after it just won the World Series, and after he debunked the presumption that he only wants to play in New York or somewhere along the East Coast.

New York Mets

Boras was practically beaming in the 2022 offseason when he referred to Steve Cohen as a "goliath" and King Kong hanging on to the Empire State Building all in the same press conference. The strong choice of words came amid Cohen's historic spending spree — which included re-signing Boras client Brandon Nimmo — before the 2023 season. Boras is on the record about wanting more club owners to allocate their funds like Cohen does, and it appears the two have had a terrific working relationship since Cohen bought the Mets in the winter of 2020. (The Mets also have a Polar Bear-sized decision to make this offseason on another Boras client, Pete Alonso.)

If Cohen, who has a net worth close to $20 billion, and president of baseball operations David Stearns really want to go after Soto, it's hard to imagine another team will beat their offer. In that way, they pose as one of the biggest threats to the Yankees in actually being able to convince Soto with cash — and a recent track record of winning — to get him over to Queens. Soto could play in right field for them, or he could also be their designated hitter. These days, anything is possible in Flushing — including taking the championship Dodgers to Game 6 of the National League Championship Series, which Soto must've noticed.

San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays

These two teams are grouped together for two reasons: their recent willingness to spend on top free agents, and their desperation to get back to October in 2025. Toronto suffered heartbreak in the Ohtani sweepstakes last winter, and San Francisco has failed on its promise to lure top-end talent to sign lucrative long-term contracts, outside of its recent extension with third baseman Matt Chapman.

The Giants just might be extra aggressive this offseason under new president of baseball operations Buster Posey. If his competitiveness to hit the ground running leads to an appetite to spend big in year one, going after Soto with no restraint makes sense for this large-market franchise that has sorely needed a box-office draw. The Giants tried to pay Judge, Ohtani, Carlos Correa and Bryce Harper in each of their free agencies, so they're expected to be all-in on Soto.

The thing is, even if San Francisco's contract terms meet his demands, Soto has indicated he wants to play for a World Series contender, and it's unclear if the Giants will qualify for such lofty goals in his prime. They play in the same division as the Dodgers and Padres, after all, and there are other teams that are currently set up better to be sustainable contenders. Another possible dent in negotiations will be Oracle Park, a pitcher-friendly ballpark that limits home runs due to its outfield depth. Soto would essentially be signing up for fewer career home runs if he makes San Francisco his home.

The Blue Jays are facing a ton of pressure this offseason to build a strong roster that will advance beyond the wild-card series for the first time since 2016. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette will be in their final years of team control in 2025, and the front office stopped short of dealing them at the trade deadline this summer, indicating they want one more shot at a title with their core players.

The Blue Jays can take a page out of the Yankees' playbook by slotting Soto alongside Guerrero for a lethal 1-2 punch in the lineup. Toronto badly needs the high-voltage boost Soto would give them in a competitive AL East division after their dismal last-place finish this year, and it has the payroll space to get it done. But Boras has had a mangled history with the Blue Jays, criticizing them over the years for their lack of big spending. Both sides could put that narrative to rest by agreeing to a huge deal.

Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs

These three teams are being grouped together because, even though they can presumably afford to go after Soto, it seems unlikely they'll land the slugger for one of two reasons: Soto won't fix their problems, or they're unwilling to spend what's necessary to get it done.

The Red Sox paying up for Soto would galvanize a fed-up and disillusioned fan base that has been neglected since Boston dealt Betts to Los Angeles nearly five years ago. But this decade's Red Sox will tell you that they already have five lefties in their lineup, and their outfield is crowded with no obvious roster movement that would put Soto in the best position. More than an offensive addition, the Red Sox are like the Phillies in that both teams should be more focused on the pitching market than adding another bat. The Phillies, at least, could have the DH spot open up after Kyle Schwarber hits free agency next offseason, whereas Boston has Masataka Yoshida filling DH duties for a few years, with Rafael Devers likely shifting there full-time at some point in the nine years remaining on his extension.

Plus, after the Phillies sported the fourth-highest payroll in MLB this year, head of operations Dave Dombroski said, "I don't think we need to add more star players," noting that the Phillies "have about as many stars as anybody in baseball" after they lost to the Mets in the NLDS. Dombrowski knows he's in dangerous territory of exceeding the second luxury-tax threshold of $281 million, which would move the team's top draft pick back 10 spots. The Phillies need to change their approach at the plate, improve the supporting cast through trades, and get the most out of the superstars they already have in order to complete their final step and win the World Series after falling short three consecutive years. They also could prioritize an extension for Bryce Harper, who has seven years left on his deal but has been open about wanting to lengthen that pact.

As for the Cubs, they're likely out of the race for Soto after Bellinger opted in to the two years and $50 million remaining on his current contract. The Cubs are a marquee destination and Soto would immediately become the face of the franchise if he suited up at Wrigley Field every day. But the largest contract in Cubs history is still their eight-year, $184 million pact with Jason Heyward back in 2015. They reportedly made an offer last year to Ohtani, so anything is possible this winter. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki currently occupy their corner outfield spots, but Chicago would happily flip one of them if necessary. The Cubs can still dream.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals are in a league of their own, and it's not just for sentimental reasons. There have been murmurs that he could end back up where he started — and won a title back in 2019. Washington reportedly offered Soto $440 million before trading him to the Padres, so the organization has demonstrated a willingness to pay a retail price for a superstar. Soto would undoubtedly headline the Nationals' young and hungry roster, but is that really enough?

Money talks, and it's to be determined if the team has enough pieces and payroll to be an annual contender. Soto has made it clear he wants to play for a winning franchise, and while the Nationals surprised us this past season, particularly with 24-year-old shortstop CJ Abrams' All-Star season, they likely have a long way to go before they're World Series contenders. Consider this a long-shot landing spot for Soto, but one that might be in the mix nonetheless.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

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