Major League Baseball

Will Juan Soto-Yankees engagement end with a ring — and a $600 million deal?

Updated Oct. 25, 2024 10:12 a.m. ET

LOS ANGELES — When Juan Soto takes the field before first pitches in the Bronx, he sprints to his position in right field and gets the crowd going. As spectacular an entertainer as he is a disciplined hitter, he raises his arms and implores the home fans sitting directly behind him to bring animated energy. Sometimes he interacts with the crowd by signing baseballs. And after his first ever roll call from the bleacher creatures, he responded by taking a full bow for them. Most days, though, he puts his arms over his head and makes the shape of a heart when he hears his name being chanted.

It's all love for Soto and the Yankees as they get ready to take on the Dodgers in the World Series.

"I feel like it's them. They make it really easy for me," Soto said Thursday, when asked why he's fit in so well with the Yankees. "They really welcomed me, really nice, and how they treat me and how they make me feel when I stepped in that clubhouse in spring training. They really make it easy for me. I think they are the big part of this, that's why I feel really comfortable with where I'm at and how happy I am right now."

Friday's Game 1 also happens to be Soto's 26th birthday, and there's no other way he'd rather celebrate than by getting a win and a leg up over Los Angeles. Winning is what Soto cherishes to his core, and it will be at the top of his list of priorities when he's exploring free agency this offseason, too.

In Soto's best-case scenario, he helps the Yankees win the Fall Classic with more clutch at-bats like the one he had in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series in Cleveland, and he hits the market with his stock peaking. We know he turned down a reported $440 million in 2022 from the Nationals, the team that signed him out of the Dominican Republic and later won a World Series with him, not long before he was traded to the Padres. Entering this season, it was widely believed Soto could command a contract worth at least $500 million. Then he posted career highs in bWAR (8.8) and OPS+ (178) for a full season.

Don't be surprised if Soto's overall contract value surpasses $600 million this winter.

"I would say Scott [Boras] has been doing a really good job to not make it hard for me," Soto said. "He's been taking all the bullets and everything. I'm just focusing on playing baseball right now. That's what I've been doing since day one, just focusing on baseball, and anything that comes up with [free agency], I just let him [handle] it."

All of which begs the question, what's the Yankees' best-case scenario? Of course, they want to win the World Series with Soto in the only season he's certain to be in pinstripes. But that would hardly make their negotiations with him this winter any simpler. In fact, if he's wearing a second World Series ring as he tours ballparks and meets with team owners in the offseason, that will only add more zeroes to his asking price.

One of those team owners is expected to be Mets billionaire Steve Cohen, who has significant money coming off the books this winter and has shown he will go after a coveted free agent if he really wants to. Since winning is what matters most to Soto, the Mets just showed the world that they could block out the noise, put their heads down, and compete all the way to the playoffs — their enchanted season finally finishing in the NLCS against the Dodgers, just two wins shy of reaching the Fall Classic despite no one expecting them to even sniff October baseball. The trifecta of Cohen, top baseball executive David Stearns and promising first-year manager Carlos Mendoza should make Queens an attractive borough for impending free agents, including Soto.

The left-handed slugger is expected to field several offers this offseason, with big spenders such as the Mets, Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers and Giants, and maybe even the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Cardinals all potentially in play as landing spots. But in the end, it could very well come down to a two-team bidding war in New York, and that should unnerve Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner. If Cohen really wants to go after Soto, it's hard to envision the Yankees beating his offer. Really, the Yankees cannot let it get down to that if they're resolute on keeping Soto in the Bronx.

The Yankees will have to make an extremely competitive offer to keep Soto long term. This isn't the time to play games, cross their fingers and hope Soto will stay, just because they traded for him last winter and have experienced a majestic season together. Soto has won before, and he's been elite everywhere he's played. Moreover, he reminded all 30 teams this postseason how quickly he can change the game with one at-bat, one swing, and send his team to the World Series. Several owners figure to be willing to bet the house on such a generational superstar and join the Soto sweepstakes this offseason.

When considering that he's arguably the second-best young free agent in the history of the sport — behind only Álex Rodríguez — it's fair to wonder, other than the obvious, what separates Soto from the rest of his peers. It starts with a dedication to his craft that even stands out to fellow generational talent Aaron Judge.

"I think it might have been early May, we were in Minnesota, I think he may have had a couple bad games," Judge explained. "I saw him in the cage, he showed up early doing work with [Yankees assistant hitting coach] Pat Roessler. And I was talking to him like, ‘Hey, what are you working on? What are you doing?' And he was like, ‘Ah, I just don't feel right. This doesn't feel right. This doesn't feel right.' And also, I'm looking up at the scoreboard, and he's hitting .320, 15 homers. I'm like, ‘I think you're doing alright.'

"So, it's impressive to see, even a guy like him, he looks like he's got it all figured out, he continues to put in the work, put in the dedication year in and year out. He's one of the best players in the game, a superstar, and he continues to want to improve and continue to do better."

Soto's iconic 10th inning at-bat in Game 5 of the ALCS in Cleveland had me wondering if he's the most confident player at the plate in baseball right now, particularly as someone who can deliver in those high-pressure situations — so, I asked Aaron Boone.

The Yankees manager paused for 10 full seconds before answering whether Soto is the most confident player he's ever managed, or currently playing in the game. He appeared to search for the best way to answer "yes" without disparaging his other great, potentially Cooperstown-bound sluggers.

"I mean, I don't know," Boone chuckled. "I think we have a number of those players that are pretty confident in what they can do. He's one of the greats that I've ever managed, but I'm managing a few of those guys. One of the things that's certainly been enjoyable for me is getting to know Juan, the person and who he is. And to see his at-bat quality all year.

"I go back to the first spring training game where there were a lot of eyes on that, and it's like you became very aware very early that, I've described it as, his at-bats are like wars, battles. It's not too often that you see the crowd feed off of ball one, strike one [like] with Juan, because he creates this theatrical battle between him and the pitcher as much as anyone I've ever seen."

It's hard to believe there's a manager out there who would want anyone other than Soto at the plate right now when the game — the season — is on the line. For one, Soto's elite plate discipline puts him on another playing field. He hardly ever makes mistakes, and when he does, he adjusts his swing decisions within the same at-bat. Although 26 years young, he enters every high-leverage situation believing in his heart of hearts that he's the best player on the diamond. Soto's unrelenting temperament gives him the chance to wait for the pitch he knows he can hit. The bigger the moment, the higher the stakes, the more likely he is to seize his golden opportunity.

All of this has built Soto's mythology and made him a monumental figure in the history of baseball, already. Just keep in mind that even though he has clearly relished playing for the Yankees and batting in front of Judge, especially now that they're four wins away from winning the whole damn thing, that doesn't make his free agency a foregone conclusion. Other front offices are salivating at the thought of adding Soto to their rosters, and if there's a wide enough gap between those proposals and what the Yankees are offering, Soto's time in the Bronx could be over next week.

Unlike his interactions with the fan base on a nightly basis, the decision of where to sign a long-term contract and spend the next decade or more of his career won't just be about love.

Oftentimes, the determination to win can be a business.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

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