Kansas City Royals: Is Eric Hosmer letting free agency get to him?
Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer is off to a rough start in his contract year. Is his pending free agency getting to him?
The Kansas City Royals are in a watershed spot for their franchise this year with so much of their core as pending free agents. One of their pending free agents is first baseman Eric Hosmer. Hosmer set career highs in homers and RBI last season and made his first All-Star team. Hosmer won't turn 28 until after this season.
Players going into their contract years will either put up amazing numbers (A.J. Burnett) or struggle. Hosmer has not gotten off to the start you would want when you could be playing for a contract that could reach $100 million after this season.
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Hosmer is off to a .197 start with a .531 OPS and a 52 OPS+. His walk rate is up .5%, however, Hosmer has hit into some bad luck. His BABIP is only .220 so far this season. He's also making way too much soft contact. He has a 20% infield fly ball rate which is almost 3.5 times the rate which he did last season.
Among first baseman since 2015, Hosmer is 17th in homers, seventh in RBI, eighth in average, 13th in OBP, and 18th in slugging. He sits at 14th in WAR. The player right above him in WAR is Mitch Moreland, who only got a one year deal for $8 million from the Red Sox.
If you look at Moreland and Hosmer, they are pretty similar players. Since 2015, Moreland's WRC+ is 106, while Hosmer is at 109. Hosmer has a 20 point lead in on base while Moreland has the same lead in slugging.
One difference is Hosmer's postseason numbers. He is a career .276 hitter in the postseason with a World Series championship.
The thing is though, teams are not going to pay for things like intangibles and postseason success anymore. There has to be production. Front offices are too smart now.
Hosmer's numbers aren't going to stay this way forever. He averages .276/18/86 with a .759 OPS. If he hits around that, along with his defense, he should get a decent contract next season, especially with the way he defends. However, it won't be that mega deal like Mark Teixeira got from the Yankees before the 2009 season.
If Eric Hosmer is going to get that kind of deal, he's going to have to put up another 20 plus homer season with over 100 RBI along with his defense. Otherwise, he may have to take a deal that's in line with what Mitch Moreland got in the off-season.
