The Los Angeles Dodgers have done well to keep their lineup intact this offseason. However, one gaping hole remains: the leadoff spot.
During the 2016 season, the Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t even have a prototypical leadoff hitter. Chase Utley had never hit leadoff in his career before he was shoved into over 500 plate appearances there this past season. He performed well enough, but at times it appeared to be a hole in the team’s offense. The rest of the lineup fits so well into their respective places, that one wouldn’t want to risk messing it up by moving a player like Seager up a spot.
The situation that leaves the Dodgers in is that they need their second baseman to be the leadoff hitter. For a team with Kiké Hernandez currently slotted at second base, that is quite worrisome. Hernandez did hit leadoff a few times last season, but it’s nothing the Dodgers would want to lean on for 162 games.
The Dodgers have been rumored to have heavy interest in Brian Dozier, the second baseman who hit leadoff for a very bad Twins team last season. Dozier’s burst of power has made him attractive to the Dodgers, but he’s an adequate leadoff hitter. Other possibilities at the position include Ian Kinsler and Logan Forsythe, if their respective teams choose to sell off their assets.
The bottom line is that the Dodgers are looking for a player that can bring a two-fold value. The player must be passable at second base, and they must be good enough to be a leadoff hitter on one of the best teams in the National League. Ideally the Dodgers want a player that will get on base at a rate of .350 or better, strikeout less than 20% of the time, and perhaps provide a little power.
Brian Dozier got incredibly close to both of those rough baselines during his 2016 season. He posted a .340 OBP and 20.0% strikeout rate. In his career, he’s a .320 OBP player with a 19.3% K%. While he’s not a perfect fit, his ability to hit for power makes up for the lacking on base percentage. It’s worth mentioning, as well, that Chase Utley during his foray into leadoff hitting on the Dodgers posted a .319 OBP and 20.4% K%.
Kinsler and Forsythe also fit the mold. Kinsler would make a great leadoff hitter with his career .344 OBP and 12.3% strikeout rate (.348/16.9% in 2016). Kinsler wasn’t too shabby power wise either, with 28 home runs, a .484 slugging percentage, and .196 ISO. Forsythe is a career .326 on base man with a 19.9% strikeout rate (.333/22.4% in 2016). His power was not quite on par with Dozier and Kinsler, but he still hit 20 home runs with a .180 ISO.
The options are there for the Dodgers. They have expressed willingness to part with some of their best prospects, including Jose De Leon. It appears as though a trade is imminent with someone. They do not want Hernandez to be their starting second baseman for the duration of the 2017 season. So much so that they’re more than willing send away good talent to receive a second baseman in return.
For the Dodgers, acquiring one of the big name second basemen on the trade market is less a question of if and more a question of when and who. It appears as though Dozier is the top candidate, but talks have recently stalled. That could lead the Dodgers to explore their options elsewhere with Kinsler or Forsythe. As seen from the numbers above, any one of the three would put the Dodgers in a great situation headed into 2017. With the addition of a solid second baseman and leadoff hitter, the Dodgers could move ahead of the mighty Cubs in preseason rankings.
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