The Los Angeles Dodgers' Julio Urias has allowed just two runs in 17 innings this season, but he seems bound for some regression. Or does he? The youngster is a mystery.
There are many fascinating things about Julio Urias. He was signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a 16-year-old and made his MLB debut at the age of 19. By doing so he became the first teenager to take the mound for the Dodgers since Edwin Jackson in 2003, and one has to go back to Fernando Valenzuela and pre-Fernandomania to find a teenage pitcher for the historic franchise before that.
Urias, if you haven't seen him, also has a bit of a modern Three-Finger Brown feel to him, as he was able to overcome what would appear to be an impediment at first glance. As a child, Urias had to have three different surgeries on his left eye to remove a "benign mass," the result of which is that his left eye is nearly fully closed at all times, a challenge that Urias has not let slow him down on his trek to the major leagues.
It's not just the backstory surrounding Urias off the field that is so interesting, however. His statistical profile in 2017 is absolutely wild. Urias is the prototype of the Onion Player right now. What is an Onion Player? Let's turn to Donkey from Shrek:
"Onions have layers. Ogres have layers." And so do baseball statistics.
On the surface, Julio Urias has been amazing in his second season in the bigs. He has allowed just two runs in 17 innings this season, and while he has still yet to land a win, his three starts (5.2 IP, 1 ER; 5.0 IP, 0 ER; 6.1 IP, 1 ER) are all more than deserving of a victory. (The Dodgers are 2-1 in his three starts.)
However, like an onion (or an ogre), if you peel back a layer, there's more to be revealed. Urias has struck out just 10 batters in those 17 innings. Not a death knell by itself, but when added to 10 walks in those same 17 innings, that's a pretty rough ratio. For comparison's sake, there is not a single qualified pitcher in 2017 who has as many walks as strikeouts. There's a reason for that: Not being able to put away hitters while simultaneously putting them on base for free is a recipe for disaster over the long haul. This strikeout to walk ratio is part of the reason Urias' xFIP of 5.07 (the best indicator of future ERA) is nowhere near his actual ERA – he seems bound for regression.
However, pull back that "bound for regression" layer and we find it's not all doom and gloom for Urias. After all, this is a pitcher who started 15 games as a teenager last season, a feat that had not been accomplished since Dwight Gooden in 1984. Here are some of the other names of players to have a season as a 19-year-old in which they made 15 starts: Bert Blyleven (Hall of Famer), Larry Dierker (two-time All-Star), Catfish Hunter (Hall of Famer), Milt Pappas (200-game winner), Ralph Branca (three-time All-Star), Hal Newhouser (Hall of Famer), Bob Feller (Hall of Famer), Chief Bender (Hall of Famer) – you get the idea.
Now there are also a few names in there that act as warnings: David Clyde (18 career wins), Joe Moeller (never made it to 600 innings in his career), Frank Shellenback (0.9 career WAR) – again, you get the idea.
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However, simply being in the major leagues at this point is a very good sign for Urias. Just by being able to maintain a spot in the Dodgers' rotation as a 19-year-old and now a 20-year-old is – in the broader picture – very telling that we might be witnessing a historically great pitcher when all is said and done.
Look at some of the names listed above. Sure, Dwight Gooden was able to set the league ablaze as a 19-year-old, but Catfish Hunter had an ERA of 4.26 and a FIP of 4.42. Hal Newhouser had an ERA of 4.86 and a FIP of 4.43. Bob Feller had an ERA of 4.08 and walked 208 batters (208!!!!!) in his age-19 season. Again, these are Hall of Fame pitchers who struggled when they were fledgling teens.
All of this only feeds into how interesting Urias is. Will this modern Mordecai "Three-Finger" Brown reach the potential that has allowed him to make the majors at such a precocious age? Will we see him begin to strike out batters at the same rate he was getting whiffs in the minor leagues (basically 10 batters per nine in Triple-A)? Or will he flame out, unable to get his command under control? Will the Dodgers – an organization that relies on advanced metrics as much as any – help him out by pushing back starts when they seem like potentially troubling matchups?
Right now Urias' next start is due to be a road game against the Rockies. That seems like a perfect opportunity to skip a start for a young pitcher who is on an innings limit anyway. Add in the regression he may be due for and if they let him start it would almost surprise me.
There's so much intrigue here with Urias and we are so young into his career. Here is a guy who took a no-hitter into the seventh inning of his 18th career start. The sky's the limit, and only one thing is for sure. It's going to be a great story to follow, one of just many in baseball right now.
