Mark McGwire's rookie home run record is completely safe from Trevor Story
The biggest story and greatest source of puns from the first week of the MLB season comes courtesy of Colorado Rockies rookie shortstop Trevor Story.
Through just one week and six games, the rookie has smashed seven home runs, breaking the record for six in that span held by Willie Mays, Mike Schmidt and Larry Walker. With company like that, Story has made another guy feel like a distant memory: Troy Tulowitzki.
Now here comes bucket of cold water. Count it as a #boldprediction with the advantage of one week of actual play: Story isn't going to approach Mark McGwire's rookie record of 49 home runs (not too bold) in a season and probably won't even break 28 (more bold).
Story's cluster of longballs is not a complete fluke. At 6-foot-1 and 180 pounds he's not your prototypical corner infield power hitter, but he's very strong, possesses good bat speed, and he's displayed pretty good plate coverage in the young season. That said, past performances suggest this epic run is as much the product of happy April coincidence as talent.
Story struggled at times in the minors because of a high strikeout rate, an average but improved walk rate and low contact rate. It's a small sample size just a week into his major league career but those issues are still present: He's struck out eight times in 27 at-bats (29.6%), walked only once and his contact rate is below league average.
Against AA and AAA pitching in 2015, Story clubbed 20 home runs and struck out 141 times in 512 at bats. That's a lot of dingers for a shortstop and a lot of strikeouts for anyone. The season before against A and AA pitching, Story slugged 14 home runs and whiffed 144 times in 396 at-bats -- a way-too-high 36% strikeout rate.
Let's throw a couple cautionary tales into the mix: Remember Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Joc Pederson's torrid rookie start just last season? He hit 20 home runs before the All-Star break before flatlining in the second half with a .178 batting average, finishing with 170 total strikeouts in 480 at-bats.
Go back 10 years earlier to 2006 for Detroit Tigers first baseman Chris Shelton, who hit 10 April home runs, seven in his first nine games, but only eight more on the season. Shelton mostly crushed meatballs and poorly-located fastballs. He didn't make the Tigers roster the following season.
Big home run flurries happen and Story's would get less attention in July or August. The underlying numbers for this Rockies rookie point to a return to Earth sooner or later, even though he'll be playing half his games in the Mile-High City.
This isn't to say that Story won't be a very productive hitter or even a rookie of the year candidate. The Rockies would be ecstatic with 27 homers. But the book on Story will be written soon (cause of death: puns). He'll get attacked with breaking balls away, or some other weakness will be exposed by seasoned MLB pitchers.
If Story becomes a less of a free-swinger and finds a way to drill 35-plus homers, good for him, and I will eat a piece of my baseball mitt. But baseball is a long, grueling test, and so far he's only knocked out the first few questions.
