J.T. Realmuto produced a career best season for the Marlins in 2016. But, should fantasy owners trust him heading into next season?
As the 2016 MLB season draws nearer to an end, owners can begin to evaluate players with an eye on next season. The catcher position was a fantasy wasteland this season, but J.T Realmuto emerged as a late round gem. But, can fantasy owners trust the Marlins’ backstop next season?
The simple answer is: no.
J.T. Realmuto posted a, .303/11 HR/48 RBI/12 SB/.771 OPS line. This line is outstanding, especially coming this season, and he proved once again to be the fastest C in baseball. The Marlins were missing multiple impact bats in the lineup throughout this season as well, further limiting what Realmuto could have really done. But, there are some red flags.
The first concern comes with his AVG spike. His .303 AVG was the highest of his career, including the minors, and a 43 point jump from 2015. While some may what to chalk this up to breakout, the data does not look promising.
In 2015, Realmuto’s batted ball data read as: 21% LD,45% GB, 34% FB, 21% Soft, 50% Med, and a 29% Hard contact rate.
In 2016, 20% LD, 49 GB%, 30% FB, 21% Soft, 49% Med, and a 30% Hard contact rate.
These two lines are nearly exactly identical, so what gives? The only difference between his batted ball data in those seasons, was a .357 BABIP in 2016, a 102 point swing.
Now this is not to say that he was completely lucky, his .285 BABIP in 2015 was below league AVG, but fantasy owners have to ponder if the AVG uptick is just a mirage. Realmuto does not have a lot of pop, he is a 10-15 HR type of producer, so his AVG and SB have to carry his value.
There is no question that the 25-year-old is the fastest C in the league. But, half of his SB came in July, while he only stole one or two bases across the rest of the season. Therefore, if the AVG seems inflated, and the SB are sporadic, should owners still target him?
Heading into next season, one would have to believe that his AVG will dive below the .280 mark. He will still post 10 HR/10 SB, yet he loses his fantasy luster the deeper you dig into his stats. The Marlins lineup can be dangerous if the pieces they currently have stay, thus Realmuto’s counting stats should increase.
An early 2017 projection would be along the lines of a, .265/12 HR/60 RBI/14 SB/.750 OPS type of line. That is not too bad in terms of the current fantasy market, yet he will still fly off draft boards as owners look to him as a “safe” option. Owners need to look past Realmuto next spring, and go for a higher upside run producers from the C spot.
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