Mike Montgomery deal makes perfect sense for the Cubs and Mariners
Mike Montgomery's average fastball velocity has increased from 90.9 mph as a starter last season to 93.4 this season, when 30 of his 32 appearances have come in relief.
That's a nice jump, but not atypical for a pitcher who moves to the bullpen — and certainly not enough to preclude the Cubs from pursuing a superior, more established left-handed reliever such as the Yankees' Aroldis Chapman or Andrew Miller.
Of course, the way the Yankees are rolling — and yes, a four-game winning streak for them qualifies as rolling — they actually might end up buyers, delighting the Rays and other clubs with starting pitchers to trade.
But this is about Montgomery, and why he fits the Cubs, and why the Mariners traded him Wednesday even though he is 27, under control for five more years and in the middle of an excellent season.
To understand who Montgomery is, don't simply look at his 2.34 ERA, his 60 percent groundball rate or his .617 opponents' OPS. Those numbers are impressive, no doubt. But of Montgomery's 61 2/3 innings, 40 1/3 came in low leverage, 15 2/3 in medium leverage and 5 2/3 in high leverage, according to Fangraphs.
He wasn't pitching the eighth and ninth like Miller and Chapman. He often was a multi-inning reliever who worked early in games, and who also looked good in starts against the Royals and Astros in his most recent two appearances.
The Mariners, according to major-league sources, chose to trade Montgomery only when the market for pitching erupted, figuring they had other left-handers — Vidal Nuno, Charlie Furbush — who could fill his role.
Reasonable idea, considering the deal brought back Triple A first baseman/DH Dan Vogelbach, whom the M's believe could bat sixth in a major-league lineup right now, and Double A right-hander Paul Blackburn, whom they project as a back-end starter. The M's also gave up righty Jordan Pries, who was pitching well as a starter at Triple A.
If the deal makes sense for the Mariners, it makes just as much sense for the Cubs, if not more. Vogelbach was never going to unseat first baseman Anthony Rizzo, particularly when he might prove to be more of a DH. And Montgomery fills a definite need — Travis Wood is a useful left-handed reliever, if not a particularly hard thrower, but Clayton Richard has struggled this season.
Montgomery's performance worsened in higher-leverage situations, but the samples were small and sabermetricians will tell you that for most players, such splits tend not to be predictive, anyway.
The bottom line?
The Cubs acquired a weapon, if not a proven late-inning threat. The Mariners, meanwhile, acquired a long-term replacement for Adam Lind, who is a free agent at the end of the season and candidate to be traded.
It's fairly rare when teams complete a trade involving four players under long-term control. But this one sure seemed to make sense for both sides.
