Major League Baseball

MLB 26-and-under power rankings: No. 10 St. Louis Cardinals

Published Mar. 14, 2023 2:48 p.m. ET

FOX Sports' 26-and-under power rankings are a new spin on the classic prospect rankings. Yes, prospects are important, but with all the game-changing young talent already in the bigs, farm systems alone can’t tell the whole story. So we’re diving deep into every single MLB club, ranking them all by the players in an organization entering their age-26 season or younger — from the bigs to the farm. Each weekday through March 24, we’ll count down from last to first.

No. 10 St. Louis Cardinals
26-and-under total score: 19 (out of 30)

The beasts of the NL Central show no signs of slowing down. With Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado bopping away at the corner infield spots, St. Louis rolled to another division title in 2022 and now enter 2023 as the favorites to repeat.

With those two all-world players doing the heavy lifting, the Cardinals aren’t relying on their youngsters to compete for MVP Awards. That being said, St. Louis has a really impressive crop of supplementary 26-and-unders, particularly when it comes to position players. Here are the names you need to know.

Young Hitters: We got a spectacular debut season from utility man Brendan Donovan, who had the seventh-highest OBP by a rookie in the wild-card era (minimum 400 PAs). Names ahead of him on that list include Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Albert Pujols and Mike Trout. And while the undersized Donovan will never come close to that level of home-run power, he looks like a phenomenally valuable player with defensive versatility, outstanding swing decisions and impact on-base ability. He’s a prototypical Cardinal you’d never heard of who will terrorize your favorite team for the next half-decade.

Speaking of hitters that have benefited from St. Louis’ magical identify-and-develop machine, Lars Nootbaar, a.k.a. The Most Popular Man in Japan, might just be the best hitter you’ve never watched. In his sophomore season a year ago, Nootbar had the sixth-best walk rate in all of baseball. That coupled with a 90th percentile average exit velocity, 14 homers in just 347 plate appearances and above average outfield defense in a corner, makes Nootbaar a potential future All-Star — a remarkable reality for a guy who was drafted in the eighth round back in 2018.

Japan takes a 5-0 lead over Australia after RBI base hits by Lars Nootbaar and Kensuke Kondoh

Dylan Carlson was a top-100 prospect who impressed in 2021 with a third-place Rookie of the Year finish, but took a step back offensively in 2022 as the switch hitter struggled to impact the baseball from the left-side of the dish. He was still a league-average hitter, which makes him a core piece if he’s playing his above-average defense in center. If he can unlock a bit more power from his left-handed swing, Carlson could take a nice leap forward.

The still-22-year-old Nolan Gorman has the opposite problem. Gorman has legit pop but no real defensive home, which, considering he’s still three years away from being old enough to rent a car, is less than ideal. The former first-round pick was a league-average hitter in his rookie season, but will need to improve on a concerning 32.9% strikeout rate (the 11th-worst in baseball) to be more than just a one-dimensional masher.

Juan Yepez is a bopper’s bopper, a low-floor right-handed mash machine with limited defensive value who can flat out hit. His wild-card Game 1 blast off José Alvarado was lost to history after the Phillies roared back in the ninth, but is a great reminder that Yepez has lots-of-pulp levels of juice. He’ll be a bench bat for STL this year that will get some starts at DH against lefties.

And keep an eye on Alec Burleson, who got a 16-game cup of coffee in ‘22, but should be a regular contributor this season. Like a lot of the other names on this list, the 24-year-old corner outfielder walks a lot, strikes out less than league average and can really crush the ball when he gets his pitch. A 10.3%

Young Pitchers: If you were exhilarated by that group of hitters, prepare to be ... un-exhilarated, even if there are still meaningful players here. St. Louis had the lowest team strikeout rate in MLB last year, the next closest playoff team was Cleveland in 18th and their group of young pitchers reflects that dynamic.

If there was a Cy Young Award for swing-men pitchers, Andre Pallante would have brought it home in 2022. As a rookie in his age-23 season, the unheralded fourth-round pick shined in 108 innings broken up into 10 starts and 37 relief appearances to the tune of a 3.17 ERA. He doesn’t strike anyone out, but has a knack for dodging barrels, a skill that will see him in the same spot starter, long relief role in ‘23.

Zack Thompson and Jake Woodford are both former first-round picks and former starters with unspectacular stuff who should contribute out of the pen in ‘23. Last season the left-handed rookie Thompson outpitched his expected ERA in 34 2/3 innings, but has a solid fastball-curve mix that should let him be a serviceable reliever for a while. Woodford throws with his right hand, has a slider instead of a curve and has featured in the bigs each of the last three years, but otherwise projects for a similar bullpen lifestyle.

Jordan Hicks throws harder than pretty much anybody on earth, but that hasn’t always translated to dominance because he walks the whole countryside and doesn’t get hitters to chase out of the zone. He was pretty blah in his first full year back from Tommy John and needs to start throwing more strikes. Génesis Cabrera, a 26-year-old lefty who sits in the upper 90s, has a similar issue — fewer strikeouts than you’d expect with awesome stuff.

Prospect Hitters:

Compared to some of the other organizations in the top 10 of our list, St. Louis lacks a true, bankable MVP candidate. The potential exception to that is Jordan Walker, one of the top prospects in the sport, who has enough power in his bat to electrify a mid-sized American city. Like most massive sluggers with crazy juice, the 6’5 Walker has some swing and miss in his game, but is one of the few players in the world who could one day smash 50 home runs in the big leagues. If he doesn’t break camp with the Cards, he’ll be up really soon and should man right-field at Busch Stadium for a long, long time.

Masyn Winn has climbed the minor-league ladder alongside Walker, but couldn’t be a more different player. While Walker has the athleticism of an NFL tight end, the 5-10 Winn moves more like a dynamic winger on a soccer pitch. But unlike any soccer player, Winn can throw a baseball over 100 miles per hour across the infield from shortstop, something he did in last year’s futures game. Offensively, he shows outstanding bat speed, improving plate discipline and above average wheels on the bases. Unlikely to contribute this season, Winn is still a year or so away from solidifying himself as the Cardinals' shortstop of the future.

A year ago Iván Herrera looked like Yadier Molina’s protégé/replacement, but a lackluster 2022 pushed him down the organization depth chart. He’ll see some big-league time in ‘23, but the Willson Contreras signing is an indicator that the Cardinals see Herrera as either a back-up or trade bait.

Prospect Pitchers:

Oh, look: a Cardinals pitcher who throws a lot of strikes! Gordon Graceffo had one of the lowest walk rates in the minors last year among starting pitchers. But the former fifth-round pick also had a nice velocity bump that pushed his heater into the upper 90s. He’s still not striking out as many hitters as you’d expect, due to the suboptimal shape of that fastball, but scouts think he has a great shot to be an impact middle-of-the rotation starter, as soon as the end of this season.

It’s appropriate that Matthew Liberatore pitches like a 15-year MLB vet because it feels like he’s been a prospect for that long. Drafted in the first round by Tampa back in 2018, Liberatore was dealt to St. Louis in the disastrous Randy Arozarena trade, and got a brief taste of big-league ball in 2022. The 6’5 left-hander has average stuff that doesn’t always work in tandem, but evaluators generally think he has enough feel to pitch that he’ll settle in as a useful back-end starter. No, he does not walk that many batters.

Tink Hence is a promising 20-year-old fireballer with an elite fastball who is still, at best, a few years away from the big leagues. The Cards haven’t taken the reins off him yet, limiting Tink’s inning count thus far, but he’s looked awesome in spring training and could probably pitch out of their big-league pen right now. Understandably, St. Louis will keep developing him as a starter for as long as possible.

A special mention for Guillermo Zuñiga who was the guy chucking 102 for Team Colombia in the WBC and should get a look in St. Louis’ big-league pen at some point this year.

Summary: On both sides of the ball, the Cardinals have a type. Offensively, they look for guys who make good swing decisions and walk at a nice clip. They’ve had a ton of success with this type of player late in the draft between Donovan, Burleson, Nootbaar and Tommy Edman. On the mound, they’re bucking the league-wide thirst for strikeouts in favor of strike-throwers. That approach, while uninspiring, has worked well enough the last few years thanks to an above average defense.

Score breakdown

Big-league position players: 8 (out of 10)
Big-league pitchers: 4 (out of 10)
Prospect position players: 4 (out of 5)
Prospect pitchers: 3 (out of 5)

Jake Mintz, the louder half of @CespedesBBQ is a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He played college baseball, poorly at first, then very well, very briefly. Jake lives in New York City where he coaches Little League and rides his bike, sometimes at the same time. Follow him on Twitter at @Jake_Mintz.