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Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
There's a chance this season that Aaron Judge becomes the first player since Ichiro Suzuki in 2001 – and just the third player ever (Fred Lynn, 1977) – to win the Rookie of the Year Award and MVP in the same year. Judge has 22 homers, is leading all hitters (not just rookies) in fWAR by over half a win, and has captured the collective imagination of baseball in a way no other player has in a long time.
But enough has been written about Judge. He's good at the sport of baseball – we get it. What happens if he goes down tomorrow with a season-ending injury (*knocking on wood that this doesn't happen, of course), or what happens if the swing-and-miss portion of his game starts to regress back to where it was last season and his production begins to fall off a cliff? He certainly would be passed in the AL MVP discussion, but could he fall off far enough to make the AL Rookie of the Year Award a real race as well?
It's hard to imagine anything other than a long-term injury making this a race, but there are a few quiet candidates out there who could make this thing a real race if Judge does pick up a nick or begins to suffer some serious regression.
Let's meet the six candidates who are likely cursing each and every Aaron Judge post they see, as it just means more and more of an uphill battle to claim the recognition they would have a far better chance of winning in just about any other season. The six candidates will go in order from least likely to most likely to upset Judge, culminating with the man who has the best chance of stealing the AL RoY crown out from under Judge.
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The "Unknown" (Ben Gamel)
Gamel is the name likely known to the fewest readers today. The 25-year-old outfielder plays in the Pacific Northwest (be honest, did you even know which dude he was in the photo above?), doesn't have a ton of prospect pedigree, and only has two home runs on the season. He's not the type of player you'd add in your fantasy leagues, and he really doesn't have anything distinct about him with the exception of his excellent flow (pictured beautifully above).
All that said, he's also second to Judge in fWAR among all AL rookies. Now his margin over a few other names on this list is around a tenth of a win, well within the error bars for a stat like WAR, but it does go to show how strong of a season the long-haired maestro is having. Gamel is slashing .333/.400/.463, with the middle figure really jumping out. His .400 on-base percentage ranks 15th among all major leaguers with as many plate appearances this season, and he has drawn walks in over 10 percent of his plate appearances – a very solid figure for a rookie. (This is where we should note that Judge has a .448 OBP and 15.4 percent walk rate.)
Gamel has been doing some of his best work as of late, sporting a 154 wRC+ in June, his best month of the season. He's been consistent too, though. His wRC+ of 120 in April was excellent, and he improved in May with a wRC+ of 134. That sort of progression is promising for a rookie, and he should start getting more and more playing time if he keeps hitting.
His .456 BABIP suggests he has been getting pretty lucky so far this season, but his line drive rate (31.0 percent) is no joke and could help float that number for a while.
David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
The "Traditionalists Candidate" (Matt Davidson)
Davidson is among the lower tier of AL rookies if we look at some of the more advanced metrics, but if voters are simply looking for the Triple Crown stats, he's among the top tier of AL rookies. His 12 home runs rank second to only Judge, while his 33 RBI are tied for third. His batting average is a far cry from the top of the leaderboard (.245), but he is playing almost every day and has the tell-tale signs of a player who will finish way higher in the vote than he probably should by true value.
His on-base percentage of .291 and negative defensive value will drive more analytical fans away from his player page, as will his 0.15 BB/K ratio.
Davidson is also getting quite lucky, as nearly a quarter of his fly balls are leaving the yard right now (23.5 percent HR/FB rate) despite never topping a HR/FB rate of 15.8 percent in the minor leagues. His BABIP is also elevated (.329) considering his poor line drive rate and relative lack of speed.
Davidson is the type of rookie who makes you glad that Aaron Judge is around to (likely) win the award because if Judge wasn't there and Davidson ended up winning the award over some of the truly more deserving candidates we'll get to in the upcoming slides it would be exceptionally frustrating for the more analytical baseball minds out there.
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
The "If He Gets More Playing Time" (Bradley Zimmer)
Zimmer has one of the sexier Rookie of the Year profiles right now. He's slashing .258/.343/.516 (wRC+ of 127), he has the prospect pedigree to get folks attention (Baseball America top-65 prospect each of the past two seasons), and he has plus defensive value.
The only problem with Zimmer is he isn't getting the regular starts to accumulate the necessary counting statistics to put together a legitimate case for Rookie of the Year. Since being called up on May 16, Zimmer has appeared in nearly all of the team's 24 games, but he has appeared as a sub in eight of those games, coming on as a defensive replacement and only snagging an at bat here and there. Zimmer was already ceding a six-week head start to the rest of the AL Rookie of the Year candidates thanks to a mid-May callup, so he needs every plate appearance he can get. It's not as if that pattern is slowing down at all as of late, as he has appeared as a sub in each of the past three Cleveland games (June 10-13).
Not being able to lock down regular starts can also mess with a rookie's head and make his production begin to slip. It's tough for seasoned veterans to come into the action cold in the sixth inning and produce on the fly, it's exponentially harder for rookies to have to fill that role. So far Zimmer has handled the role well, actually sporting a higher OPS by 85 points as a sub than as a starter, but he simply won't get the counting stats necessary to challenge Judge and company if he doesn't move into the starting lineup full time in the not-too-distant future.
Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
The "Teammate" (Jordan Montgomery)
There aren't too many legitimate candidates for AL Rookie of the Year on the pitching side of things, so there's a decent chance last year's winner Michael Fulmer will remain the only pitcher to win the award since 2011. (It is quite telling that Rays pitcher Jacob Faria has made just two starts this season, and he ranks third among AL rookie pitchers in fWAR.)
The one pitcher who could challenge Judge is a man with whom he shares a locker room: Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery has had quite a nice 2017 season, making the big league roster right out of spring training and making 11 starts so far this season. Over half of those starts have been of the quality variety, and he has a 3.55 ERA (and 3.56 FIP) to show for it. His 4-4 record has more to do with the Yankees' run support lacking in his starts, as the tall lefty has shown a lot of poise in his starts this season.
Monty leads AL rookie pitchers in several statistics including innings pitched (63.1) and strikeouts (61), while his four wins trail only relief pitcher Austin Pruitt, whose 6.59 ERA and five wins goes to show just how ridiculous the "win" stat is.
Since Montgomery gets to share a living space with Judge nearly every day, maybe he can mess with the affable big man and get a leg up in the AL RoY race via some good ole fashioned trickey. Because that might just be the only thing to stop Judge right now.
Patrick McDermott-USA TODAY Sports
The "Preseason Favorite" (Andrew Benintendi)
If you read any preseason columns on who would win the AL Rookie of the Year Award, this was the name you saw most often. Benintendi was coming off a 34-game debut with the Red Sox which showed fans just enough to let them know the hype was deserved (.295 BA, 120 wRC+) while also allowing him to maintain his rookie status heading into 2017. The combination, plus the fact that he started the season as the Baseball America no. 1 prospect in all of baseball, meant he seemed like a sure bet for the award. Some writers may have chosen Yoan Moncada (who I refuse to put on this list since he hasn't actually made it to the big leagues yet), but that was only to sound trendy and not simply pick the player who the rest of their colleagues were choosing. Benintendi was the hands down favorite.
The crazy thing is that it is not as if Benintendi has exactly fallen off a cliff this season – his wRC+ is still over 100, and he has 17 combined home runs and steals – but he now seems a distant second to Judge in the race.
Benintendi posted a strong enough April (130 wRC+) that he was still probably neck and neck with Judge in this race in the eyes of many at the end of the first month, but since then, Benintendi posted a wRC+ of just 51 in May, while Judge has continued to mash at a record-setting pace.
Now Benintendi has bounced back a bit of late, and his numbers look better in June, but as of now, he's a distant second to Judge to the point that it's hard to imagine this becoming a race between these two. It certainly could, it's just fair to ask if it actually will. Which is why I think this next guy is actually the one to keep an eye on.
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The "Judge with Fewer Plate Appearances" (Mitch Haniger)
While Benintendi struggled at the plate for most of May, Haniger was kept on the sidelines with an oblique injury. However, before his injury, Haniger was producing at near-Judge levels, and he has shown signs of picking up just where he left off since his return.
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Haniger slashed .342/.447/.608 in 21 games in April, good for a wRC+ of 188. For comparison's sake, Judge had a wRC+ of 200 in April – slightly better, but quite close. It has only been three games since he came back from the DL, but Haniger looks to be just as locked in, with a four-hit game in his second game off the disabled list.
Haniger was quite buzzed about before the season, as the 26-year-old outfielder was acquired by the Mariners in the offseason as part of the Jean Segura trade. Haniger slugged .670 in 74 games at Triple-A for the Diamondbacks last season, and he has an excellent plate discipline profile. So far that success has translated perfectly to the big league level, and if he is able to maintain a 150-ish wRC+, he would either become one of the toughest-luck Rookie of the Year runner-ups, or he would make a real race out of this after all.
He has to make up for the six weeks he lost to his oblique injury, but if that time out can keep Haniger fresh in September when Judge and others may begin running into the "rookie wall," that time missed may actually turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
Right now it looks as though Aaron Judge is not only the leader for the AL MVP, but also a lock for the AL Rookie of the Year. If there's one thing we know about baseball, however, it is that the season is interminably long and "guarantees" in June are often proven wrong by the time October rolls around.
