MLB Awards: Top 5 National League Cy Young Candidates
Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
As the MLB season moves within a few weeks of postseason play, some pitchers are beginning to solidify themselves as strong candidates for the 2016 National League Cy Young award.
The National League is overloaded with quality pitching this season. Every MLB season, it seems as if the Cy Young becomes a three or four pitcher race down the stretch. Last year, Jake Arrieta ended up winning the Cy Young award due to an unbelievable second half. Meanwhile, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw were arguably just as worthy with their dominant seasons. This season, it looks to be another tight race.
Throughout the season there are so many variables. Pitchers go through slumps, injuries, and sometimes just bad luck. But the pitchers who survive those obstacles and thrive on the mound, are the ones who are considered for a Cy Young award.
Every single variable and every single start are taken into consideration for a Cy Young award. And this year will be no different. Ranking the best pitcher is becoming tougher and tougher as the candidates battle for the rest of September. And most, if not all of them, are also looking forward with eyes on the playoffs.
The following is a list of how the National League Cy Young candidates stand as the 2016 season draws closer to an end. Every pitcher on this list is very deserving of consideration for Cy Young. But only one can win.
Before we begin, a few honorable mentions: Jose Fernandez, Noah Syndergaard, Jon Lester, Stephen Strasburg, and Tanner Roark. All have had fantastic seasons and rightfully deserve to be considered. But the other candidates are playing too well and are more favored.
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No. 5 – Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw, who has won the award three times in the last five years, was the preseason favorite to win the National League Cy Young.
Kershaw was also on pace to have a historic season before being injured. The three-time winner was 11-2 with a 1.79 ERA through 16 starts before being added to the disabled list. He was suffering from a herniated disk and his return was questionable. Now, Kershaw is being
Now, Kershaw is being called up Friday. He is also expected to make about five starts before playoffs begin. Despite being out for about 2 months, Kershaw still is a Cy Young Candidate.
Among National League starters with at least 120 innings pitched Kershaw ranks:
Many won’t support Kershaw’s claim to Cy Young due to the lack of innings and his injury. But it’s hard to ignore his candidacy when he arguably is the best pitcher in the league. With five or so starts remaining, Kershaw could realistically reach 150 innings pitched and 16 wins.
But, the two months of injury time is likely going to keep Kershaw from winning the Cy Young. Compared to the other top National League pitchers, he won’t have the core statistics of wins and innings pitched to keep up. If by some miracle, Kershaw is absolutely dominant and pitches deep into every upcoming start, he could make this much more interesting.
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No. 4 – Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Kyle Hendricks is not a name people would have chosen for a National League Cy Young winner at the start of the season. And after 2015 seasons where he went 8-7 with a 3.95 ERA, how could you blame them? But this year is different. The 26-year-old righty has been just as good, if not better than Jake Arrieta for the Cubs.
Through the months of July and August, Hendricks went 7-4 with a 1.20 ERA. Heading into September, Hendricks will look to continue his performance and hopefully get more help to secure wins. With about four starts left, he needs to pitch perfectly to remain a candidate.
Currently, among qualified NL starters, he ranks the following:
As you can see, there are some flaws in Hendricks’ candidacy. He doesn’t have the innings pitched or the strikeouts. The innings pitched will remain a blemish against him considering the Cubs are sticking with a six-man rotation. Also, Hendricks isn’t a strikeout type of pitcher like the other guys on this list.
But what he does have going for him, is his Wins, ERA, WHIP, and OBA. He has a chance to be first in all four categories. Granted, he would have to win every start he gets and he will have to continue to be nearly untouchable, but if he does, he has as good of a claim as anyone.
Hendricks feels like an underdog for the Cy Young award. He’s in a group of established, dominant pitchers. Many of which, have won it before. But he has a real chance to win it and add that title to his resume. We’ll see how he performs in September, and how much weight the voters put in innings pitched and strikeouts. Those seem to be the only kinks in his armor, and these other candidates don’t have that issue.
Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
No. 3 – Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Madison Bumgarner might be the best big-game pitcher in baseball and the Giants will need him in top form as they fight for a playoff spot down the stretch.
He also has a very strong claim for the Cy Young. Bumgarner has been a workhorse for the Giants this season. He has a league-leading 29 starts along with the second most innings. “MadBum” also has faced the most batters this season and still maintains incredible stats. If voters stick to the core statistics such as wins, ERA, IP, strikeouts, WHIP, and opponent’s batting average, Bumgarner could be #1.
Among NL qualified starters, he ranks the following:
Bumgarner looks like a near-perfect candidate. But Bumgarner is coming off his worst month of the season in August where he put up a 4.14 ERA. He’s slotted in for five more starts this season vs the Diamondbacks, Padres (2x) and Dodgers (2x). He’s been solid vs the D-backs and Padres, but against the Dodgers, Bumgarner is 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA in three starts.
The Giants will also be happy if he picks up his performance as they try to maintain a Wild Card spot.
Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 – Jake Arrieta, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Jake Arrieta won the Cy Young in 2015 due to an unbelievable second half stretch. If he wants to win again, he may have to be unbelievable in his final few starts.
Arrieta has had some ups and downs this season. He had a pretty rough July where the Cubs lost each of his five starts. But he also had a great three months to start the season. And although he didn’t have a lights-out August, Arrieta is still a strong candidate for the NL Cy Young.
Currently, among qualified NL starters, he ranks the following:
If the rotation stays the same he’ll make five more starts vs the Astros, Cardinals (2x) and Reds (2x). He has gone 4-1 vs the Cardinals and Reds in five combined starts. But in two starts against the Reds, Arrieta has a 3.21 ERA. In his three starts against the Cardinals, a 3.45 ERA. If he wants to win, he’ll have to be better than that. Because the top candidate has a much easier road.
Arrieta showed last season that he has the ability to be untouchable down the stretch. Last season in the month of September, he had a 0.45 ERA. Couple that possibility with the fact that he’s first in Wins and is the only pitcher to throw a no-hitter this season, he is a top candidate.
As the Cubs coast into the playoffs, Arrieta has a chance to be the back-to-back Cy Young champion. After a rough July but a bounce-back August, Arrieta may be on the right track to be near-perfect as the postseason inches closer.
Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
No. 1 – Max Scherzer, RHP, Washington Nationals
Max Scherzer won the American League Cy Young award in 2013. Now, he is after the National League title.
Scherzer is the top Cy Young candidate currently. He has been absolutely electric for the Nationals as they control the NL East and head towards the playoffs. He had a rough month of May going 3-3 with a 3.83 ERA but since then has gone 13-5 with a 2.18 ERA.
Currently, among qualified NL starters, he ranks the following:
Also, the Nationals have won seven of his last eight starts with an easy road ahead of them. Mad Max is lined up to have six more starts vs the Mets (2x), Phillies, Marlins (2x), and Diamondbacks. The Mets and Phillies are 28th and 30th in runs scored this season while the Marlins are 22nd.
Scherzer is already leading in almost every pitching category. And with this upcoming schedule, he could improve his lead.
Scherzer looks like the favorite for the NL Cy Young in early September. With his consistent season and his weak upcoming opponents, he should solidify himself as the easy choice. If he falters, however, the other candidates aren’t too far behind.
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