With the MLB season headed towards the home stretch, we break down the race for every major award.
The stretch run is officially here. We’ve consumed more than 140 games from each and every team in the league and, with the calendar landing in mid-September, the race to the finish line is very real. That is doubly true for the league’s individual award races, and the majority of MLB honors are very much up for grabs. Today, we will break down each and every race, beginning with NL Rookie of the Year and moving along from there.
Let’s get to the particulars.
NL Rookie of the Year
Corey Seager
SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
This is the most lopsided race of them all, so it makes some sense that we’ll start with it. We will be hearing from Seager later in this post (spoiler alert!) but he has been utterly dominant in the ROY race. He leads all MLB rookies (not just NL) in wRC+, fWAR, bWAR, OBP, runs scored and more, and Seager has been the runaway winner for months. Let’s just move on.
Kenta Maeda
SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Teammates don’t usually finish 1-2 in ROY voting, but they should this time around. Maeda has been the best rookie pitcher in the NL, even with the caveat that Jon Gray and Steven Matz have been impressive in different ways. Maeda has eaten through 159 innings with a stellar 3.28 ERA, and he lands within the top 10 of all NL pitchers in both WHIP and strikeout rate. Twenty-eight-year-old’s probably have a disadvantage because some voters may rule them out, but Maeda is deserving of inclusion here.
Aledmys Diaz
SS, St. Louis Cardinals
With two more weeks of absurd production, Washington’s Trea Turner might chase Diaz down from behind, but not yet. Diaz has more than 150 additional plate appearances to work with, and while his defense hasn’t been as good as Turner’s, there is nothing wrong with the way he has played in St. Louis. Diaz’s slash line of .311/.375/.517 is better than anyone would have hoped and, in a normal Seager-less year, he would have a real claim on the top spot.
Sep 9, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Michael Fulmer (32) pitches in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
AL Rookie of the Year
Michael Fulmer
SP, Detroit Tigers
Fulmer was always going to regress, and that has happened. Still, he’s turned an impressive-but-normalized 3.49 ERA since the All-Star break, and that includes a 5.32 mark in Fulmer’s last four starts. In the same breath, the 23-year-old was working from a massive lead and he hasn’t given it away yet. You would be hard pressed to argue for any “normal” candidate (we’ll get to one in a moment that isn’t so normal) and Fulmer simply needs to hold the line to have the clearest path to victory.
Tyler Naquin
OF, Cleveland Indians
Naquin’s defense has been bad. How bad? Well, so poor that Baseball-Reference’s WAR basically makes him a replacement level player despite his heroic contributions with the bat. We won’t downgrade him too much for the glove, but Naquin does benefit from a weak year of competition outside of Fulmer. His slash line of .300/.371/.548 is excellent and Naquin does have 14 home runs in 320 plate appearances. That’ll do.
Gary Sanchez
C, New York Yankees
This just feels absurd. Gary Sanchez, at the time of this post, has appeared in 35 games with 151 plate appearances. That shouldn’t be enough to warrant inclusion. However, Sanchez now ranks at the top when it comes to AL rookies in both WAR categories, and he has been flatly absurd at the plate. For reference, Sanchez’s 189 wRC+ would lead everyone in baseball if he had enough at-bats to qualify, and his slash line of .333/.411/.697 is out of a video game. No one believes he can keep this up, but with two more weeks, he might climb to second overall.
Sep 10, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) throws to the Philadelphia Phillies during the second inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
NL Cy Young
Max Scherzer
SP, Washington Nationals
Workload matters, and it’s buoying Max Scherzer in a big way. Scherzer leads NL pitchers in bWAR (6.0) by a wide margin and he lands within the top three in the same metric according to FanGraphs. Much of that is due to the fact that Scherzer holds the NL lead with 203.2 innings pitched, and he has been lights-out throughout the campaign. At the moment, the right-hander boasts a 2.78 ERA with more than 11 strikeouts per 9 innings and Scherzer also leads the NL in strikeout-to-walk rate at 5.229. This isn’t a slam dunk in terms of the top spot, but Scherzer has nosed ahead for me this time around.
Noah Syndergaard
SP, New York Mets
Most people are heavily discounting Syndergaard based on his workload. “Thor” has pitched only 167 innings across 27 starts (28 appearances) and that is a large disparity when compared to the other contenders. Still, Syndergaard leads the entire NL in fWAR (5.8) while landing third in bWAR (4.6). He also trails only Scherzer in K/BB ratio. The fire-baller can also stand behind a very nice 2.48 ERA (2nd in NL) and 2.32 FIP, and that collection of numbers should allow Syndergaard to remain in the mix.
Madison Bumgarner
SP, San Francisco Giants
With apologies to Jose Fernandez, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Tanner Roark, Johnny Cueto, and others, I’m rolling with Bumgarner. In fact, he was closer to being second on this list than he was to being fourth. Bumgarner’s workload is second only to Scherzer’s and the left-hander has eaten only four fewer innings in one fewer start than Washington’s ace. Bumgarner ranks within the top seven in both major WAR statistics and the former World Series MVP continues to cruise along in dominant fashion. The NL Cy Young race is wide open, but these are the three guys at the head of the pack for me.
Sep 6, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Corey Kluber (28) delivers in the first inning against the Houston Astros at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
AL Cy Young
Corey Kluber
SP, Cleveland Indians
Leading the league in both WAR categories is a nice way to start a Cy Young campaign and Corey Kluber has that distinction right now. While he’s tied with Masahiro Tanaka according to FanGraphs (5.0), Kluber holds a sizable lead for Baseball-Reference (6.2). But that isn’t the only way in which the right-hander has been impressive. Kluber ranks fourth in ERA (3.05) and inside the top 10 in strikeouts, K/BB ratio and innings pitched, and he also owns sparkling numbers in FIP and xFIP. You could ask 10 different people and get 10 different answers in the AL right now, but give me Corey Kluber.
Chris Sale
SP, Chicago White Sox
For much of the year, Sale actually trailed his own teammate (Jose Quintana) in most Cy Young handicapping attempts, but that has finally flipped. Sale might be the best overall pitcher in the American League, and he lands second in ERA (3.03) to go along with top-three marks in both fWAR (4.8) and bWAR (5.3). Sale’s biggest asset is his league-leading workload with more than 200 innings pitched and, frankly, I wouldn’t argue with you if you went with the dominant left-hander in the top spot this week.
Masahiro Tanaka
SP, New York Yankees
This might be controversial, but it shouldn’t be. Tanaka lags behind the rest of the AL contenders in strikeouts, and that does matter. The right-hander ranks well outside the top tier with only 7.71 strikeouts per 9 innings, but on the flip side, Tanaka lands third in walk rate at only 1.49 per 9 innings. That leads to top-three marks in fWAR (5.0) and bWAR (5.1) and cements his candidacy for me. Throw-in a very nice 3.04 ERA and I’m sold.
Sep 9, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Chicago Cubs left fielder Kris Bryant (17) hits a home run during the fifth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
NL MVP
Kris Bryant
3B/OF, Chicago Cubs
Kris Bryant hasn’t been the best player in all of MLB (we’ll get to that shortly), but he does have the easiest case to win an MVP award. He is the best player in the NL this season, leading the way in both fWAR (7.8) and bWAR (7.2) and, for good measure, the Cubs are easily the best team in baseball. That combination is a deadly one with voters, and despite Bryant’s young age and relative lack of experience, he is easily deserving of the honor based on his production with 37 home runs, quality defense and a stellar 155 wRC+ in 2016.
Corey Seager
SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Rookies aren’t supposed to finish second in NL MVP voting, but Seager’s case is tremendous. He trails only Bryant in fWAR (7.3) with a top-three mark in bWAR (5.9) and his quality defense at a premium position really helps in that regard. It should be noted, though, that Seager’s bat has been tremendous in its own right, with a 147 wRC+ to go along with 25 home runs and a .319/.378/.536 slash line over more than 600 plate appearances. I’m a sucker for defensive value, and give me the power-hitting, sweet-fielding shortstop all day.
Daniel Murphy
2B, Washington Nationals
For me, third place is less clear. Nolan Arenado has been ridiculous at the plate (with Coors Field to help him) and with the glove, Freddie Freeman has been awesome in obscurity because the Braves stink, Brandon Crawford’s glove is tremendous and even Anthony Rizzo has been great in support of Bryant in Chicago. I’ll go with Murphy, though, because he has been the best hitter in the NL this season. Yes, you read that correctly. A second baseman (!) leads the NL in wRC+ at 158, and Murphy’s .598 slugging percentage is far and away the best in the league. Add to that the second-best OBP (.391) and 25 home runs, and it is hard to describe how great Murphy has been in Washington.
September 9, 2016; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout (27) reacts after striking out in the sixth inning against Texas Rangers at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
AL MVP
Mike Trout
OF, Los Angeles Angels
With apologies to everyone else, I don’t think this is particularly close. Yes, Mike Trout plays on a team that isn’t bound for the playoffs, but on a 25-man roster, one player can only do so much and Trout has been the best player in the sport. He leads the AL in wRC+ (171), fWAR (8.3), bWAR (9.4), on-base percentage (.437), walks (97) and much more, and Trout has 27 home runs and 25 stolen bases for good measure. I guess it is possible that he could be run down from behind if one of the top contenders goes supernova down the stretch, but Mike Trout should be the MVP… again.
Mookie Betts
OF, Boston Red Sox
Betts has a sizable narrative advantage over Trout because, again, the Angels aren’t very good at baseball. Still, the stats tell the story between the two players, even if Betts has been utterly tremendous. The talented young outfielder lands in second place in both major WAR categories (trailing Trout), and much of that bump comes from his above-average defense at an important position. Counting stats are helpful as well (30 home runs, 23 stolen bases, 100+ RBI and runs scored) and it won’t surprise me if Betts wins, even if that is the wrong choice.
Jose Altuve
2B, Houston Astros
This is a photo finish between Altuve and Toronto’s Josh Donaldson right now (sorry, Manny Machado), but I’ll go with Altuve. His power breakout is wildly unexpected, as Altuve has 23 home runs and a stunning .543 slugging percentage. Throw in the fact that he also brings his trademark speed (27 home runs) and high batting average (.337) to the table and Altuve’s case makes itself. It isn’t the most obvious MVP profile in the world, but Altuve does everything well and that always helps to buoy a candidate like this.
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