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Possible MLB expansion for Montreal was reported in the Canadian news this week and it seems to be only the time of MLB's choosing before Montreal becomes Team #31. Which market would be the best bet to be Montreal's expansion cousin and come into the league as Team #32?
This week brought exciting news for baseball fans north of the border as it was widely reported that Montreal has got all their canards in a row and are prepared to bid on an expansion team to replace the Expos, who left in 2004. While Montreal is a market that is sometimes viewed as an alternative to Tampa Bay if the Rays cannot get their canards all in a row, comments from Commissioner Rob Manfred would seem to indicate that expansion is the preferred way for Montreal to be welcomed back to Major League Baseball.
If expansion is on the horizon, MLB will expand by two teams – an uneven number of teams would not work in baseball as there are 162 games to schedule per team and a bye series would mean too many off days – and a lot of deserving markets will get a long look at being an expansion cousin to a reborn Expos franchise.
International Markets
The world is getting smaller and American pro sport leagues will look to other markets to grow their brand. If athletes have had a hard time with the idea of adjusting to life in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal, imagine what will happen if they have to go play somewhere where Spanish is the most commonly spoken language. While baseball player demographics (21.8 percent are from Latin America) mean MLB might be a better option to be the first to enter the LatAm markets, there are still a number of economic issues that will come up with regard to infrastructure, currency valuation and disposable income levels.
Mexico City – With the NBA reportedly considering Mexico City for its next round of expansion, Mexico City is also mentioned as one of the favorites by Commissioner Manfred. To be the first American sports league to play in Mexico City would open up a market not only of a city with the same population base as New York City but a country of 120 million people. It is the logical choice because of market size if the league were to expand to Mexico but with the popularity of Liga MX soccer, would there be enough corporate sponsorship and current MLB fans to make it work? Other markets in Mexico might be more passionate baseball markets but without the economic base of the Mexican capital.
Havana – Given Cuba's well-known love of baseball and an obvious natural rival for the Miami Marlins, MLB would be great if sporting perspective was the only consideration. Of course, because of politics and economics, an MLB team here would not be feasible for at least a generation. Depending on what happens in the meantime and how international relations are rebuilt in a post-Castro Cuba, a minor league affiliate for the Marlins might make more sense.
Puerto Rico / Caribbean – Think of how the headlines would write themselves when Pittsburgh was the away team in this market. San Juan hosted 22 games in the final two seasons of the Expos but the small stadium and economics of a full-time team would be difficult, even if the economy in Puerto Rico was thriving and not in the current state of crisis.
Vancouver – The second biggest market behind Montreal in North America without MLB is Vancouver. Entering Montreal and Vancouver in the same expansion cycle would be a strong statement about Canada as a baseball market but it would also double down on the risks that sent the Expos into a tailspin in the late 1990s. Like most Canadian markets, hockey is king but in Montreal, baseball is a clear second choice. In Vancouver, basketball and soccer are more popular than baseball. While climate concerns would be overrated (where the climate mirrors Seattle), a new baseball-only stadium would be a tough sell where a recently refurbished a downtown stadium for the Vancouver Whitecaps of MLS at five times the proposed cost.
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Domestic Markets
Charlotte – With the strongest minor league support as far as attendance in the last couple of years, Charlotte is a proven baseball market. The distance to Atlanta (225 miles) and Washington/Baltimore (~400 miles) is not unlike other professional sports where teams co-exist in those markets. Of course, the question to ask is whether there are enough corporate dollars in the mid-size market for a third pro sports team with the NFL's Panthers and NBA's Hornets already established.
Las Vegas – With the NHL moving in during the fall to be the first pro team in Las Vegas and the Raiders moving from Oakland in two or three seasons, the market might not have the corporate base to be large enough to host three teams. Depending on when the next round of expansion is set to take place, MLB can be an interested observer to see how sports fans react to the Vegas Golden Knights.
More from Call to the Pen
Austin – A third team in Texas could be a possibility as Austin has replaced Las Vegas as the new title-holder of largest metro area without a professional team. Of course, when looking at Texas as a state, it is not struggling in the professional sports department and many would argue that University of Texas football would be considered the big-time as far as sporting events go. Austin is showing double-digit growth, and as a tech hub it is bringing an ideal demographic for sports with high-income young families fueling the market's growth.
Portland – Like Vancouver, concerns about climate are overblown and a regional rival for the Seattle Mariners might help somewhat ease the Mariners' worst travel schedule in MLB. Like Austin, Portland's demographics would also fit MLB and the fan support shown to both the Timbers (MLS) and Trail Blazers (NBA) would likely transition to rabid support of an MLB expansion team.
Los Angeles Inland Empire of Riverside – A case could be made that the largest market by population without an MLB team actually has two. Riverside, California and the Inland Empire is the 13th largest market in the U.S., but don't expect too many tears to be shed for it as Riverside is part of a metropolitan area that has two MLB teams within 70 miles of it (not too mention two NFL, two NBA, two NHL and soon to have two MLS).
At this stage, with all ownership groups being equal (which is never the case) and making an evaluation solely based on what market would be best for MLB, what city would you recommend and why for Montreal's expansion cousin, Team #32?
