MLB free agency: Where do Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, others sign?
By Jake Mintz
FOX Sports MLB Writer
OK, so now what?
Unless you’re living under a rock or trying to hawk NFTs by hacking the account of a prominent baseball writer, you’re well aware that the MLB lockout is officially over.
On Thursday, the league and the players' union agreed to a new CBA, putting an end to more than three months of tumultuous negotiations. The TL;DR of the situation is the players secured a few of their key objectives, but the greater economic structure of the sport remains generally unchanged. For a more in-depth summary of the new CBA and its ramifications, go read this article by my wonderful colleague Pedro Moura.
With the work-stoppage transaction freeze done and dusted, free agency is back and open for business.
And strap in tight, my dear friends, because these next few weeks are going to be absolute chaos.
The first mandatory report date for spring training is just three days away on Sunday. The delayed Opening Day is April 7. That creates a super truncated timeline for front offices to make the signings and trades that will finalize their 2022 rosters.
Some predicted an immediate frenzy in the late hours Thursday night after the lockout was technically lifted at 7 p.m. ET. That turned out to be more hope than reality, but Carlos Correa has to sign somewhere at some point.
With the madness set to begin any moment, here's a glance at the top unsigned free agents and which teams might be in the mix to secure their services.
Carlos Correa is the top target on the newly opened free-agent market. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Carlos Correa
The biggest fish in the free-agent ocean, Correa is sure to command a deal that tops the 10-year, $325 million contract Corey Seager got from the Rangers in December.
A two-time All-Star and 2015 Rookie of the Year, Correa possesses a unique combination of defensive athleticism, offensive prowess and unapologetic swagger. He is, whether you like him or hate him, a superstar.
And many do, in fact, hate him. Correa was one of the faces of the 2017 Astros' World Series run, which means he eventually became one of the faces of the team’s cheating scandal that came to light before the 2020 season. He has since embraced the villain role, helping the 2021 Astros to craft the "us-against-the-world" mentality that defined their season.
Correa’s "it’s my time" watch celebration after he homered in Game 1 of the ALCS immediately became peak meme fodder and is sure to be tweeted often by whichever team signs him.
That team probably won’t be Houston. The Astros seem content to move on from the Correa era and give the starting shortstop job to youngster Jeremy Peña.
The Yankees have shown some level of interest, but many think they’d prefer to sign a stopgap until top prospect Anthony Volpe is ready for the bigs in 2023.
There’s no obvious fit.
The Phillies feel like a big-money team with a hole at short, but they’ve already committed a ton of payroll to Bryce Harper.
The Red Sox have buckets of money coming off the books next year, but they already have Xander Bogaerts at shortstop (even though Bogaerts has an opt-out after 2022).
The Angels love a big free-agent splash but need pitching reinforcements more than they need a boost at the plate.
The Braves have Dansby Swanson hitting free agency next year, but dropping $350 million on one player goes against Atlanta's M.O.
The Cubs have money to spend and already inked Marcus Stroman to a new deal, but they're still probably a few years away from contention.
That’s all to say: It’s wide open.
My prediction: Red Sox
Fresh off a World Series title, free-agent first baseman Freddie Freeman could leave Atlanta. (Photo by Megan Varner/Getty Images)
Freddie Freeman
It feels like such an obvious reunion: the franchise stalwart fresh off a heroic World Series run returning to the organization with which he has spent his entire career. But that Freeman never signed an extension with Atlanta might speak volumes about his future as the club maintains interest but seems prepared to move on, if need be.
The Braves have been rumored to be in talks for Athletics first baseman Matt Olson, who is very much on the trade block, as Oakland seems destined for a rebuild. Olson is of comparable future value to Freeman but is three years younger than the longtime first baseman and would be cheaper for the next few years until he hits free agency. Granted, Olson isn't a franchise icon coming off a World Series, but if there’s one thing we learned the past few months, this thing is a business.
The recent track record of aging first basemen on mega-deals is abysmal (Chris Davis, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Eric Hosmer), so you can at least understand Atlanta’s trepidation.
If the Braves let Freeman walk, where could he end up? The Yankees are a real possibility, especially with 2021 deadline addition Anthony Rizzo likely out the door and questions surrounding Luke Voit’s true talent level.
Toronto is a fun fit, considering that both of Freeman’s parents are Canadian, and he has played for the Canadian national team.
The Dodgers will spend the cash but would need to move Max Muncy to second base, which at this point is less than ideal. At age 32, Freeman should be an All-Star-level player for the majority of his contract, even into his declining years, and should warrant a deal around five years for more than $150 million.
My prediction: Yankees
Clayton Kershaw appears headed back to the Dodgers, despite all the rumors that he might consider a move to Texas.
Clayton Kershaw
Toss out all those Kershaw to the Rangers photoshops, folks, because it looks like Kershaw is headed back to L.A. Nothing is set in stone yet, but the overwhelming sentiment in the industry is that it would be a shocker if Kershaw doesn't re-up with the Dodgers.
It would make sense for the second-greatest pitcher in franchise history (you don’t wanna fight with me over Koufax) to want to finish his career in blue. With his health a real question — remember, Kershaw didn’t pitch in October — and the Dodgers low-key looking for pitching depth, it just makes too much sense not to happen.
Expect those health questions to result in a contract number lower than you might expect for a future Hall of Famer.
My prediction: Dodgers
Update: Kershaw did indeed re-sign with the Dodgers, according to reports Friday.
Kris Bryant isn't the MVP candidate he was for the Cubs, but his ability to play multiple positions will create a strong market.
Kris Bryant
Bryant’s newfound positional versatility is a game-changer for his free-agency case because practically every team in baseball could find a spot for him defensively.
He’s no longer the MVP candidate he was back in his prime Wrigley days, but he remains a dangerous bat with October experience that could help out any serious contender.
Keep an eye on Seattle (need a 3B), Philly (could use a corner OF bat), Atlanta (holes all over the outfield), San Diego (if they can offload that pesky Hosmer contract) and even small-spending Tampa Bay, which reportedly made a big offer to Freeman before the lockout and was really close to trading for Bryant at the deadline.
My prediction: Phillies
Jake Mintz is the louder half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He’s an Orioles fan living in New York City, and thus, he leads a lonely existence most Octobers. If he’s not watching baseball, he’s almost certainly riding his bike. You can follow him on Twitter @Jake_Mintz.
