Major League Baseball

MLB Free Agency: Which team will win the Aaron Judge sweepstakes?

Updated Oct. 26, 2022 9:15 p.m. ET

Bet on yourselves, kids.

Aaron Judge will be the most sought-after player on the free-agent market this offseason. After the Yankees slugger declined a seven-year, $213.5 million extension in the spring, he proceeded to record one of the all-time great seasons in baseball history. In the process, he likely made upward of $100 million more than he was originally offered.

In the aftermath of the Yankees’ sweep at the hands of the Astros, the attention now turns to the 62-homer man who might have launched his last blasts in pinstripes.

For those who might need a refresher on how ridiculous Judge’s season was while he carried a scuffling Yankees offense into the playoffs, here’s a reminder: Judge slashed .311/.425/.686 with 62 home runs, 133 runs and 131 RBIs, surpassing Roger Maris’ Yankees record of 61 homers and setting an American League record in the category.

Aaron Judge passes Roger Maris with 62nd home run

Aaron Judge hit his 62nd home run this season to break the AL single-season record. Colin Cowherd weighs in.

No major-leaguer had reached the 60-homer mark in a season since 2001, when Barry Bonds set the single-season record (73). The feat is even more noteworthy in today’s game, as evidenced by the 16-homer distance Judge had over the second-place Kyle Schwarber, who hit 46. It was the largest gap in a single season between the top two home run hitters since Philadelphia’s Jimmie Foxx led the majors by 17 homers in 1932.

Judge, who had seven more homers than the Detroit Tigers’ top four home-run hitters combined this year, became one of four players ever to record an OPS of at least 1.100, 60 home runs, 130 runs and 130 RBIs in a season. He lifted the Yankees offense down the stretch, slashing .349/.502/.784 in the season’s second half. His slugging percentage was higher than any qualified teammate’s OPS after the All-Star break. Just mind-boggling stuff.

In what will likely be an MVP season, Judge led the majors in homers, runs, RBIs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and extra-base hits. He was worth 11.5 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs and 10.6 according to Baseball Reference, in both cases demolishing all other position players. Manny Machado had the closest fWAR among position players, at 7.4. Judge's only feasible competitor for the American League MVP, Shohei Ohtani, had a combined offensive and pitching fWAR of 9.4 and bWAR of 9.6.

As remarkable as Judge’s career-best hard-hit numbers were this year, they weren’t far off from the terrific metrics he put up the season prior, suggesting his ability to sustain this success in the near future. His expected batting average this year (.305) was actually lower than his mark last year (.308). His expected weighted on-base average has ranked in the top 4% of the majors each of the past five full seasons.

The athletic, 6-foot-7 outfielder can also run for a guy his size, stealing 16 bases this year and grading out above average in both right field and center field. In addition, he has demonstrated his durability, playing in more than 300 games the past two seasons.

Aaron Judge breaks all-time AL HR record

Ben Verlander reacts to Aaron Judge belting 62 homers on the season and what it means for the Yankees and MLB.

Judge decided not to continue contract discussions with the Yankees once the 2022 season began to avoid distractions, the same way impending free agent Trea Turner did this year with the Dodgers.

Will Judge return to New York? That likely depends on how much higher the Yankees go.

Their original offer would've paid Judge an average annual value of $30.5 million, slightly above the $30.4 million per year Mookie Betts received when he signed a 12-year, $365 million extension with the Dodgers in 2020. That deal was the second-largest in total value behind Mike Trout's 12-year, $426.5 million deal signed in 2019, though it ranked 17th all time in AAV.

According to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, Judge originally countered the Yankees’ offer, hoping to be closer in line with Trout’s AAV (around $35.5 million per year), the highest ever for a position player. Not far behind is Carlos Correa, who signed a three-year, $105.3 million deal ($35.1 million per year) with the Twins, with opt-outs after each year.

But long-term deals have been handed out, too. Just last year, Francisco Lindor signed for 10 years and $341 million, Fernando Tatis Jr. signed for 14 years and $340 million, and Corey Seager inked 10 years for $325 million.

Judge will have to decide if he cares more about total value or AAV, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see the 30-year-old command $36-38 million per year for the next eight to 10 years. That would give him the highest AAV among position players, provide long-term stability and earn him well north of $300 million over the life of the contract. Would anyone be surprised to see Judge get around nine years and $342 million, good for $38 million per year?

Will Aaron Judge re-sign with the Yankees?

Verlander and Alex Curry discuss whether they think Aaron Judge will re-sign with the Yankees and Trea Turner will re-sign with the Dodgers.

Here are five teams that could be in the mix to give Judge his worth.

New York Yankees

It’s unlikely the Yankees would've held off their AL East competitors without Judge’s otherworldly contributions this season. They’ll have to significantly increase their initial offer, possibly going over Gerrit Cole’s $36 million per year, to do so, but the Yankees understand as well as anyone the value Judge provides. After signing Cole for nine years and $324 million in December 2019, they could be looking at a similar deal to keep Judge.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants have little committed long-term. Carlos Rodón has a player option for next season and will likely opt out after a terrific year. Brandon Belt's $18.4 million comes off the books. The most the Giants are paying a player next season is $16 million to Brandon Crawford. San Francisco possesses the space to comfortably add a superstar, someone who could return the team to playoff contention and serve as a face of the franchise after a disappointing .500 season — a player, perhaps, who grew up in nearby Linden, California, and attended Fresno State.

Los Angeles Dodgers

If there’s a big-name free agent available, this club is typically on the short list of suitors. Yes, the Dodgers are committed to Betts for the long term, but he has expressed how much he enjoys playing second base, and he has gotten reps there if they want to make space for Judge in right field. Plus, if the Dodgers wanted to keep Betts in the outfield, Judge has demonstrated that he can play a capable center field. The Dodgers will likely have to decide if they want to do what it takes to bring back Turner or get involved in the Judge sweepstakes.

New York Mets

Could Judge stay in New York with a cross-town rival? Steve Cohen has demonstrated a willingness to spend — he gave Lindor 10 years and $341 million in April 2021, has the player with the highest AAV in baseball in Max Scherzer and had the highest payroll in baseball this year — but plenty of decisions loom in the Mets' rotation, with Jacob deGrom likely opting out and Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker potentially becoming free agents. Will the Mets be able to shore up their rotation and add the most coveted impact bat on the market? They lacked the offensive pop of some of the top National League contenders this year, and Judge would obviously change that.

Texas Rangers

This front office clearly expected more of an immediate impact after signing Seager (10 years, $325 million) and Marcus Semien (seven years, $175 million) last season, as they got rid of manager Chris Woodward before relieving team president Jon Daniels of his duties en route to a fourth-place finish this year. The Rangers might be more of a dark-horse possibility, but fresh off adding Bruce Bochy as their manager, could they be in the mix to make another massive splash?

Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and NL West for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers’ editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.