Major League Baseball

Baseball Hall of Fame: What are criteria for induction today?

Updated Jan. 25, 2022 6:50 p.m. ET

By Pedro Moura
FOX Sports MLB Writer

For decades, round-number statistical thresholds — 300 wins, 500 homers, 3,000 hits — guided election into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

When a player reached a milestone, he earned admission through the traditional route: election by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. If he did not reach the milestones, he had to be exceptional in some other way or ways, or he had to wait until the Veterans Committee, now known as the Era Committees, could consider his case.

That era has been fading, and 2022’s Hall of Fame class might mark the last year of the milestone generation.

Because he didn’t break out until he was 27 and because he provided no defensive value as a designated hitter, David Ortiz had an unusual Hall of Fame case. He lacked the overall career statistics to justify his inclusion, but his three World Series championships and 541 home runs made up for that.

On Tuesday, Ortiz was the only player the BBWAA elected into the Hall of Fame. He made it in on his first ballot. (It took a slightly statistically superior but less powerful player, Edgar Martinez, 10 tries to make it in.)

The previous Hall of Fame thresholds are becoming increasingly insufficient guideposts, and because of PED concerns, even some players who soar past them are not guaranteed to get in.

For the first half-century after first-ballot Hall of Fame admission was allowed, membership in the 3,000-hit club virtually guaranteed it. That ended in 2011, when Rafael Palmeiro received 11% of votes, nowhere near the required 75%. He was soon removed from the ballot because of a shortage of support.

Alex Rodriguez, too, with his 3,115 hits and 696 homers, has not yet been admitted.

Roger Clemens, with his 354 wins, is the only 300-win pitcher not enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Innings and pitch-count limits mean there might never be another. Across the board, but especially in pitching, changes to the modern game mean the milestones are becoming far more difficult to reach.

What, then, should be the new criteria for a Hall of Famer? So far, Wins Above Replacement has picked up the slack left by the milestones. PEDs muddle this to the naked eye, but the voting has increasingly followed WAR's recommendations.

But that metric, too, presents problems. Between its two popular formulas, it can differ wildly — enough to tip players over the edge in one and not the other. For instance, Ortiz’s 51 FanGraphs WAR surely hampered his case relative to his 55.3 Baseball-Reference number.

Baseball writer Jay Jaffe has ideated a metric that solves for some of this: JAWS, it’s called. It incorporates both a player’s career WAR and that of his seven best seasons, synthesizing them into one number. Dominance matters, and this stat adjusts for that and lessens how much compiling can impact a player’s case.

There’s plenty else to consider, too. The Hall of Fame asks voters to decide based on a player’s record, ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and team contributions. In recent years, voters have used the so-called character clause of that instruction to leave Clemens, Omar Vizquel and Curt Schilling off of ballots because of their transgressions.

We could use the same case to justify including CC Sabathia or Jon Lester over the next few years. Those two are among the pitchers who will soon become eligible for election but lack the win totals to traditionally warrant it. Félix Hernández is another example in that realm, one who lacks the team contributions of the aforementioned others but boasts the best peak.

I say "we" because I will soon be eligible to vote and am preemptively thinking through these issues. If you think the Hall of Fame discourse is contentious now, just wait.

There will not be many slam-dunk candidates this decade. Next year, the new candidate with the best statistical profile, Carlos Beltrán, will bear his own baggage: his confirmed involvement and alleged leadership in the Astros' sign-stealing scandal. Expect Beltrán's candidacy to serve as a referendum on the many potential future Hall of Fame candidates also involved.

In two years, Adrián Beltré figures to be the rare certain honoree. Sabathia comes up for selection in 2025, alongside Hernández and Ichiro Suzuki, who, like Beltré, topped 3,000 hits. In 2026 there does not look to be any new qualified candidates. Lester and Buster Posey, both three-time champions, will become eligible in 2027.

Sabathia and Ichiro, former teammates, fit into a similar category. In terms of WAR alone, they are on the border of qualifying for induction — for different reasons. Ichiro starred for seven seasons in Japan before jumping to the majors. Sabathia was competent, not excellent, in his 30s.

But Sabathia won a World Series, and both men have been hugely influential to the modern game. In addition to reaching the 3,000-hit milestone, Ichiro opened the door for a generation of Japanese position players to excel in America. Sabathia is focused on bringing more Black players to baseball. As of now, I’d argue they merit inclusion.

It won’t work to keep using milestones as the first barrier to entry. It might not even work to lower the milestones. Voters are under no mandate to limit their consideration to a player’s statistical prowess, and the next generation of Hall of Fame candidates will likely force those who have not yet expanded their gaze to do so.

Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. He most recently covered the Dodgers for three seasons for The Athletic. Previously, he spent five years covering the Angels and Dodgers for the Orange County Register and L.A. Times. More previously, he covered his alma mater, USC, for ESPNLosAngeles.com. The son of Brazilian immigrants, he grew up in the Southern California suburbs. Follow him on Twitter @pedromoura.