Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
After counting down the top ten prospects for every organization in MLB, which are the worst seven in the league?
An Introduction
Call to the Pen contributor Benjamin Chase has released his top 10 prospects from every minor league system over the last month or so, and he’s put together some research into each minor league system through contacts in the game, reading reviews from other reports, and his own research and reviews.
He has taken the 30 minor league systems and ranked them from #1 to #30. Currently, the way they break down, in Ben’s eyes, there are seven elite systems, seven “ugly” systems, and 16 that sit firmly in the middle. That doesn’t mean that a team in the bottom couldn’t move up through a few trades by the end of the offseason, as one of the teams that would have been in the “ugly” portion is now in the “elite” section after offseason trades. Teams can also jump up quickly into that elite group as only two of the seven teams in that elite group would have been considered elite just one year ago at this time.
These rankings take into consideration four main factors in rankings – elite prospects, system depth in legitimate prospects, proximity to majors of legitimate prospects, and system reputation for developing their prospects into productive major league players.
Before we get into this dispatch of the list, let’s take a look at the stats on how the list ended up distributed among the divisions…
Best average ranking: NL Central, 11.6
Most teams in the top 7: Tie – NL West and NL East, 2
Most teams in the bottom 7: Tie – AL Central and NL West, 2
For information, the order of divisional ranks by average ranking of each team in the division: 1. NL Central 11.6, 2. NL East 14.6, 3. AL East 14.8, 4. NL West 16, 5. AL Central 17.6, 6. AL West 18.4
This was a lot of fun to put together, and after the first of the year, we’ll be releasing a top 125 prospects in all of baseball from Ben as well, so be looking for that!
Let’s start with this installment of the “ugly” seven teams at the bottom of the rankings!
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
30. Los Angeles Angels
Hard to argue any other team here, frankly. The Angels had an arguably historically bad minor league system entering the 2016 season. They’ve made some solid draft picks in 2016 that could turn into players.
Elite prospects – Not a single Angels player will appear on my top 125. One was even considered.
System depth in legit prospects – There are maybe two or three guys who profile as legit rotation starters or full time major league hitters in a lineup in the system right now, which is by far the worst of any system.
Proximity to majors of legit prospects – Right now the best prospects the Angels have are primarily 2015 and 2016 draftees. Perhaps a few will make appearances in high minors in 2017 from those draft classes.
System reputation – On top of poor talent all around, the system has struggled to develop the raw talent that has come into the system. A prime example is Kaleb Cowart, who has been highly regarded for some time due to his raw tools, and he never has taken that next step.
Top 5 Born 1991 or since (age 25 season this year)
1. Mike Trout
2. Tyler Skaggs
3. Andrew Heaney
4. Cam Bedrosian
5. Matt Thaiss
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
29. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks stripped out their formerly deep system over multiple seasons of the Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa regime, which has left their system quite bare.
In their defense, the Diamondbacks have seen a number of players graduate to the majors in the last couple of years, specifically guys like Archie Bradley, Braden Shipley, and Jake Lamb. That said, the system was stripped bare in a few trades, specifically a couple with the Atlanta Braves.
Elite prospects – None considered for the 125.
System depth in legit prospects – While there were not guys who were elite prospects, the Diamondbacks have a number of guys who profile as possible regular players via back end starters or defense-first starting infielders. They’re still primarily fringe guys, though, with most profiling as bench guys or relievers.
Proximity to majors of legit prospects – The Diamondbacks do have a few guys who will have a chance to compete for the 2017 team on their top 10 list and that I considered for the top 10, so there’s some legit players who are getting close, but those guys are guys who should compete to play a bench role or a swingman role in the bullpen.
System reputation – The Diamondbacks on the pitching side have had a reputation for forcing the sinker on pitchers, which can be good in their ballpark, but sometimes it just doesn’t work on a pitcher, and it causes them not to reach their full potential. On the hitting side, the Diamondbacks do receive positive marks for their patience with players that rewarded them last year with breakouts from players like Lamb and Mitch Haniger before he was traded this offseason.
Top 5 Born 1991 or since (age 25 season this year)
1. Taijuan Walker
2. Archie Bradley
3. Braden Shipley
4. Robbie Ray
5. Brandon Drury
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
28. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles have had a lot of success the last two seasons, and they seem to church productive play out of guys without much profile, so while I have them ranked low, they may take those rankings with as many grains of salt as they’d like based on their recent track record.
However, with the graduation of a number of their better arms to the major league bullpen and rotation, the system has lost a lot of its depth and the injury struggles that seem to plague Oriole pitching prospects are even more prominent with the fewer guys to spread around.
Elite prospects – Two players were considered for my top 125. One more, Hunter Harvey, would have a case if he could remain healthy, but that’s been an issue, and he’s currently ranked 4th in their system for that reason.
System depth in legit prospects – The Orioles have seen a lot of bullpen pieces and bench pieces graduate to the majors in recent years, which has left their system a bit empty of guys who are now that legit major league starting role player anymore in the system. There are a handful of guys, but this is definitely where the Orioles lack the strongest.
Proximity to majors of legit prospects – The Orioles’ top prospect has a chance to contribute in 2017, and their top 2016 draft pick should move very quickly through the system, but other than that, their main prospects are either fringe guys or a ways away from contributing.
System reputation – It’s been mentioned a few times here, but the Orioles have had a reputation for their pitchers breaking down. There’s also been a lean toward three true outcome type of hitters in their system, which can be okay in their ballpark, but those guys are often better to get as major leaguers than minor leaguers because most prospects develop into three true outcome guys after reaching the upper minors, not because they were developed that way.
Top 5 Born 1991 or since (age 25 season this year)
1. Manny Machado
2. Jonathan Schoop
3. Kevin Gausman
4. Dylan Bundy
5. Chance Sisco
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
27. Miami Marlins
The Marlins I struggle with. There is raw talent in the system that is tremendously good. The problem is that it is extremely raw. That’s why I have them as the sort-of middle team in this group of seven.
While the three below them are very shallow on legit talent and elite talent, the three teams above them have some legit and elite players but their issue is more a system shallow issue. The Marlins are the oddity in this bunch.
The Marlins have a ton of depths – of guys that have huge ceilings and low floors. Their prospects really haven’t shown much at upper levels of the minors yet, but they do have some very elite raw skills that could turn into a big-time player down the road, so it’s hard to completely ignore their system altogether.
Elite prospects – The Marlins only have one guy I considered for the top 125, though they have plenty with the talent to make an impression by midseason!
System depth in legit prospects – This is pretty shallow right now simply because the floors for their prospects are so low, so it’s hard to gauge the future value of these guys quite yet.
Proximity to majors of legit prospects – Only three of the top 10 had even played in the upper minors, and I’d wager only one of those three has a legit chance of seeing the big leagues by the end of 2018 even. Most everyone in this system is a long way away.
System reputation – Though the Marlins have been doing some spending this offseason to fill in their roster, especially after the unfortunate passing of Jose Fernandez, they have been able to do very well developing players over the years, including their home grown outfield that ranks as one of the game’s best.
Top 5 Born 1991 or since (age 25 season this year)
1. Christian Yelich
2. J.T. Realmuto
3. Justin Nicolino
4. Braxton Garrett
5. Brian Anderson
John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
26. San Francisco Giants
You really cannot blame the Giants for the players they don’t have in their minor league system as most of them are either at the major league level or have been used in trades to bring home three world championships in a matter of a five-year span.
While that allocation of minor league resources is the way to properly use resources when it can be done, the Giants found themselves using up nearly all their viable assets outside of 2016 draft picks in the trade market this summer to make a push for the post season this year.
That has left their system fairly dry of elite talent players, though they did a tremendous job of picking college players in the 2016 draft that should move quickly and that should have an impact at the big league level in spite of not having their first round draft pick due to offseason signings.
Elite prospects – While two Giants players were considered for the top 125, neither will factor prominently near the top of the rankings, though both has reached the upper minors, so they should both make an impact in the next couple of seasons.
System depth in legit prospects – The Giants do have a nice blend of picks from 2016 that should advance quickly along with some high-talent college picks that may take a bit longer to develop but have legit tools as well. They are quite shallow, however, in guys with a solid floor.
Proximity to majors of legit prospects – The two best players in the system have already played at AA, and only one of the top 7 of my top 10 list had NOT played in the advanced minors in 2016, which is a good sign for the Giants, however, many of those players do not have an elite ceiling either.
System reputation – The Giants have done very well in building college players into productive major leaguers and getting production from guys who flew under the prospect radar like Matt Duffy and Joe Panik, so it wouldn’t surprise if a few of these guys end up better big leaguers than they look on scouting sheets, but that reputation is really the big thing keeping the Giants above a bottom-3 system right now.
Top 5 Born 1991 or since (age 25 season this year)
1. Christian Arroyo
2. Tyler Beede
3. Bryan Reynolds
4. Chris Shaw
5. Andrew Suarez
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
25. Kansas City Royals
As has been seen already this offseason, the Royals may be soon in for another rebuild. They’re already managing their assets in trades like the move they made sending Wade Davis to the Chicago Cubs, but there are major pieces of the Royals roster that went to back-to-back World Series that will be eligible for free agency after 2017 and 2018, and this could be the team’s final hurrah.
The Royals absolutely used their minor league system to build up the team that has had this success, so it’s no question that they could do it again, though I assume fans in Kansas City would hope that it’s not another 30 years before they get to see a competitive team again once the rebuild begins.
The Royals do have some pieces in their minor league system, for sure, but they’re big question sorts of pieces right now, and that’s the real issue. The Royals have had some bad luck with health and also used a lot of prospect assets in the last few years to make the runs they did.
Now, they’d likely do it all again to hang their championship banner, but that does mean that they end up ranked a bit lower after trading away big time pieces.
Elite prospects – I have two Royals prospects in consideration for the top 125, but only one will really figure as top 75 guy for me. There are mixed reviews out there on the second guy I put up high, and some have even said they wouldn’t have him on the team’s top 10, let alone a game top 100-125 type of list.
System depth in legit prospects – This is where the Royals are still fairly strong. Though they don’t have a guy who will likely be a middle of the order hitter or a front line starter in their system, there are a number of guys who could play key bullpen roles, be solid #7 hitters, or be defensive specialist starters in the right team in their system currently.
Proximity to majors of legit prospects – The best player in the system will likely be in the major leagues next season, so that’s a good mark for the team, and all of the first six prospects in my top 10 list had played at least at AA in 2016.
System reputation – The Royals have had a mixed bag reputation when it comes to their prospects. Guys like Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, and Alex Gordon were supposed to be among the best players in baseball based on their skill sets. None of them are bad players by any means, but they’re not in that uber-elite category that many thought they could get to.
That’s been the knock around the industry on the Royals in general. They seem to get excellence out of their players for sure, but it’s that next level elite production that doesn’t seem to get tapped into for whatever reason that is difficult to put a finger on.
Top 5 Born 1991 or since (age 25 season this year)
1. Yordano Ventura
2. Jorge Soler
3. Raul Mondesi
4. Hunter Dozier
5. Josh Staumont
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
24. Detroit Tigers
Under Dave Dombrowski, the Tigers used prospects as currency. Those that couldn’t help the major league team on the field directly were used in trade to help the team in a more indirect fashion.
This led to a shallow system, but it also meant that the Tigers have had a very good system at producing solid talent as they always seem to have a handful of guys who are ready to be traded in their system.
On his way out the door, Dombrowski pulled off some of the best trading of his Tigers career, bringing in what should be the next wave of elite young Tigers talent by trading away David Price and Yoenis Cespedes.
The Tigers haven’t exactly seen their minor league system depth replenish, but they do have some very solid pieces at the top that lead them to rank here again, along with that excellent reputation for quick development.
Elite prospects – I considered three Tigers prospects for my top 125, two that will figure prominently into the top 75 and another that should definitely be on any fantasy owner’s radar for 2017. The Tigers could have as many as 6 guys ranked by midseason, though, with the guys they have that are right on the cusp of that level of talent.
System depth in legit prospects – The system has a number of guys who should be contributing at the big league level in the next year, but the depth of guys who are legit big leaguers as far as a floor is still to be determined.
Proximity to majors of legit prospects – Three of the top 10 prospects should either open the season with a starting role or be at AAA preparing for such a role in the very near future with the big league club. Outside of those three, two other on the top 10 have reached AA, but most of the guys with big ceilings are still at least three years away.
System reputation – The Tigers reputation among the casual/outsider fan is much, much different than it is among those within the game, I’m finding.
Scouts and minor league development guys love the Tigers for their ability to hone in on each player’s best tools and bring those out and get a guy to a productive level in the upper minors or even lower minors such that he can be a valuable trade piece.
On top of that, they’ve taken guys who have flopped in other organizations and focused on what it is that those guys do well and allowed the players to do that, with Anthony Gose and JaCoby Jones being two great examples of that.
One rival scout told me about the Tigers’ Kyle Funkhouser, “I was watching the draft board fall, and I just had a sinking feeling because I knew the Tigers would get him, and when they got him, he’d either turn into an ace for them, or he’d end up becoming the trade chip that brought them in Clayton Kershaw or some ridiculous trade piece.”
That’s the tremendous level of respect that the Tigers have in the game right now and why they rank at the top of my “ugly” group.
Top 5 Born 1991 or since (age 25 season this year)
1. Michael Fulmer
2. Daniel Norris
3. Nick Castellanos
4. Matt Manning
5. Christin Stewart
Agree? Disagree? Fire off in the comments, and let’s discuss!
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