Major League Baseball

MLB odds ALCS Game 6: How to bet Red Sox vs. Astros (and the single best bet)

Updated Oct. 22, 2021 4:09 p.m. ET

By Dave Sharapan
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

The Houston Astros are one win away from playing in the World Series for the fourth time. But to get there, they'll have to put away a Boston Red Sox franchise that knows a thing or two about an ALCS comeback.

Here's everything you need to know about the MLB odds on Friday's American League Championship Series Game 6 matchup between the Red Sox and Astros on FS1 — the run line, moneyline, total over/under and picks (with all MLB odds via FOX Bet).

BOSTON RED SOX @ HOUSTON ASTROS (8:08 p.m. ET Friday, FS1)

Run line: Red Sox -1 (Red Sox favored to win by more than 1 run, otherwise Astros cover)
Moneyline: Red Sox -105 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $19.52 total); Astros -115 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)
Total scoring over/under: 9 runs scored by both teams combined

After our favorite prop bet of the day cashed in the first inning of Thursday's NLCS Game 5 — what a way to start! — we rounded out the day by cruising over the total and, if you were on the Dodgers, with a Los Angeles moneyline win. (If you were on the Braves like me, well, my apologies, but at least we got more baseball.)

Now, to help you make the best of your wagers on ALCS Game 6, the FOX Sports betting team had five questions for me about Friday night's Red Sox-Astros matchup.

I was more than happy to oblige. Here are my thoughts on each, along with the five bets I think you should consider in Game 6 of the ALCS.

1. The Dodgers staved off elimination last night, but fans aren't expecting Boston to do the same, with 68% of run line bets on the Astros tonight. So ... who you got, and by how many runs?

I visited Fenway Park for the first time in my life with my daughters this summer. As a baseball fan, it is a must if you have never been.

But, in the book, there is no rooting or being a fan when you place a wager.

I really like the pitching matchup with Nathan Eovaldi against the Astros, and I think the right-handed hitters in the Red Sox will hit tonight. Red Sox win by more than one.

PICK: Red Sox (-1 at FOX Bet) to win by more than one run

2. While only 32% of run line bets are on Boston, 54% of the money wagered on the run line has come in on the Red Sox. And the moneyline split is even more drastic — in the opposite direction. The Astros have taken 49% of moneyline bets but 72% of the money wagered. How meaningful are those kinds of numbers to you?

In all my years in the book, I never really looked at the splits — because I was just booking the games on the money and, most importantly, WHO was playing what side.

Now that I'm on the other side of the counter, I still don't look at the splits — because they can vary from book to book. Meaning, one book can be heavy on the Astros and another be heavy on the Red Sox. How do you know what side is the "right" side? Nobody knows squadoosh!

3. All five games in the ALCS have gone Over the scoring total so far, with four games ending up in double-digits. Tonight's total is set at 9, with the under at -118. Do you see the scoring train slowing down in Game 6, or will we be in for another offensive bonanza?

If there was a game that could go under in this series, it's probably this one, based simply on the fact that Nate is capable of delivering an ace performance.

But baseball betting has been and still is all about streaks. Ride them until they buck you. I'll take eight from the BoSox themselves to get this thing over.

PICK: OVER 9 runs scored by both teams
PICK: OVER 5.5 runs scored by the Red Sox (+165 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $26.50 total)

4. Turning to props, fans are all over two bets in particular at FOX Bet: Jose Altuve to hit a HR and the Astros win (+475), and Carlos Correa to hit a HR and the Astros win (+600). Do either of those do anything for you? And if not, what prop or custom bet do you like tonight?

C'mon, bruh, you can't ask me about the Astros hitting home runs and winning the game! No way those interest me at all, because I think Boston is going to win!

A couple of props I do like are the Red Sox alternative run line of -1.5 at +155 (bet $10 to win $25.50 total) and either Xander Bogaerts or J.D. Martinez to hit a home run. I like taking the visitor on the run line at a plus price because we know we are getting nine innings of at-bats. And Xander at +400 and JD at +350 are both worth a play because of the matchup with Garcia.

If we get all three, we're going to Sizzler!

PICK: Red Sox (-1.5 at +155; bet $10 to win $25.50 total) to win by 2 or more runs
PICK: Xander Bogaerts to hit a home run (+400; bet $10 to win $50 total)
PICK: J.D. Martinez to hit a home run (+350; bet $10 to win $45 total)

5. The Red Sox are +375 to come back and win the ALCS in seven games. If I believe in a Boston comeback, should I take that bet, or should I take the moneyline tonight and let it ride again in Game 7? Is there a third option?

Oftentimes, rolling it over is the better alternative for futures, money wise, but a Game 6 allows for a unique opportunity. Locking in a +375 (bet $10 to win $47.50 total) is a good idea if you think the Red Sox are going to win today.

I think this is a fair price. And IF Boston wins Game 6, you are holding a +375 ticket for Game 7. Then, you can hedge or find other ways to lock in profit, either pregame or in-game, without a sweat for an all-or-nothing deal.

The third option is an Astros win today and onto Atlanta tomorrow, but like the three outcomes in baseball (home run, walk, strikeout), we are hoping for the two good ones! Nothing better than a Game 7 for everything in any sport, but especially in baseball, bruh!

PICK: Red Sox to win the series (+375 at FOX Bet)

Dave Sharapan is a longtime oddsmaker who spent 20-plus years in sportsbooks around the world. He is a current sports betting analyst, writer and sports bettor himself with Pittsburgh roots who lives in Las Vegas and has more hats than he possibly can count. You can follow him on Twitter @SportsbkConsig.

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