Major League Baseball

MLB odds: Every playoff team's 2022 World Series odds, bets ranked worst to first

Published Oct. 6, 2022 3:21 p.m. ET

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Class!

We are approaching the home stretch for your instruction, so now it’s time to start thinking about your final exam. Some call it the World Series, but here it’s the culmination of everything you have learned to finish with an A+ bankroll.

I wanted to take a look at all 12 MLB ball clubs that will compete in the postseason and then use data to predict the winner. I ran a model using Statcast data to determine the probability of each team capturing this year’s World Championship (the same data we have discussed since our first class together). So let's dive in and take a look at the results.

Here are every playoff team's odds and my rankings for which team is going to win it all, from worst to best (*odds via FOX Bet):

12. Cleveland Guardians (<1%, +2500 to win World Series at FOX Bet)

Why does Cleveland have the longest odds of winning it all among division winners? The way they’ve won games is drastically different from everyone else.

As a team, the Guardians have hit the fewest home runs among playoff teams (127) and have the lowest hard-hit rate in the majors (33.1%). But sluggers such as Andrés Giménez and Steven Kwan are hitting more for average (batting around .300) and have the third-most stolen bases with 119. The bullpen also deserves credit with a 3.49 expected fielding independent pitching, second-best in MLB.

As the youngest and healthiest team in the postseason, picking them would be zagging while almost everyone else is zigging.

11. Philadelphia Phillies (<1%, +3000 to win World Series)

Because we’re praising Judge for an AL record, we might as well honor the National League home run champion, too. That honor belongs to Kyle Schwarber with his 46 blasts.

J.T. Realmuto has also contributed with his .341 OBP, but what really makes him stand out is his work behind the plate. His pop time, or how quickly he can throw to second to take out a base stealer, has consistently been the best in MLB. That part of Philadelphia’s defense has never been a problem, but the rest of the team has the second-worst outs above average mark with -37.

However, if Aaron Nola and the rest of their pitching staff can throw crazy strikeout numbers, perhaps it will not matter.

10. San Diego Padres (1%, +2500 to win World Series at FOX Bet)

The winners of the Juan Soto sweepstakes still believe in their superstar, even though he hasn’t had the start they would have liked. Since August 3rd, Soto still has his absurdly high walk rate and OBP (19.6% and .393) but just six home runs and 16 RBI. However, Manny Machado’s 7.3 fWAR ranks second in baseball, and he has somehow maintained his .336 batting average on balls in play.

What’s carried the Padres has always been their pitching. Blake Snell is averaging more than a dozen strikeouts per nine innings, Yu Darvish does not walk too many hitters and Joe Musgrove has the lowest ERA of the bunch (2.93).

The ceiling for the Padres is quite high, it’s just a matter of if they can reach it.

9. Seattle Mariners (1%, +2500 to win World Series at FOX Bet)

Ending the longest active postseason drought in North American sports is one thing. Fending off two of the more dangerous batting orders just to make the ALCS is another.

Seattle will try to counter with wunderkind Julio Rodriguez leading the way with a top 25 ISO (.220) and Eugenio Suarez’s 31 home runs. The M’s have also made a $108 million investment in SP Luis Castillo, who can consistently throw a 97-mph fastball but has a low strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.53).

There’s overall talent, but no one skill that can overwhelm the rest of MLB.

8. Tampa Bay Rays (2%, +1700 to win World Series at FOX Bet)

Injuries have plagued the Rays. Gone are impact players like OF Kevin Kiermaier, C Mike Zunino, 2B Brandon Lowe and P Ryan Yarbrough. While the rest of the ball club has been more than capable of playing their way past Game 162, there are questions about their offensive power. The Rays’ average launch angle of 11.3° ranks 24th in the majors, leading to one of the lower barrel rates and expected wOBA marks in MLB.

While defense and pitching have always been hallmarks during their playoff run — including this year — the pop that’s missing will be hard to produce.

7. Toronto Blue Jays (5%, +1400 to win World Series at FOX Bet)

Perhaps the most feared power slugger in the bigs should be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. No one has more hard-hit balls (95+ mph exit velocity) than the Blue Jays' first baseman with 263. In third place? Toronto shortstop Bo Bichette with 250. Even Teoscar Hernandez has the longest average home run distance at 410 feet. Enough Blue Jays hitters can pounce on pitching mistakes to make Toronto intriguing.

However, when it comes to manufacturing offense in other ways, they have struggled. Their -11.1 BsR ranks fourth-worst in the majors.

The strength is there, but this team has a lot of work to do.

6. St. Louis Cardinals (6%, +1400 to win World Series at FOX Bet)

Arguably the top two NL MVP candidates both play for the Redbirds. 1B Paul Goldschmidt ranks fifth in MLB in solid contact rate (10%) to go with his .317 batting average and .404 OBP. 3B Nolan Arenado has the seventh-lowest strikeout rate among qualified hitters (11.5%) and the seventh-best wRC+ (151) by making good contact.

Even so, the pitching staff is susceptible to allowing a lot of balls in play. Their 7.39 K/9 mark is the worst in baseball. The swan songs for Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina will be major narratives in St. Louis, but it’s the pitching depth that should be analyzed as to the Cardinals’ actual chances this month.

5. New York Mets (7%, +850 to win World Series at FOX Bet)

Succumbing to recency bias may be tempting after the Mets let their division lead slip away in the final hours of the season. And, playing an extra series should always be seen as a negative, especially when New York’s top two pitchers in Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer have suffered injuries in 2022.

Nonetheless, if they are at their best, no pitching staff has a better xFIP (3.46), and no squad has a better closer than Edwin Diaz (17.1 strikeouts per 9 innings). Add to the clubhouse Pete Alonso with his 40 home runs (third-most), and you have a serious contender among those from the Wild Cards.

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4. Houston Astros (14%, +350 to win World Series at FOX Bet)

It’s a new postseason, but the same story in Houston: hitting depth.

It begins with DH/OF Yordan Alvarez (.405 OBP and 37 home runs), who would have been a serious MVP candidate had it not been for Judge and Ohtani having galactic seasons. 2B Jose Altuve leads the Astros in fWAR (6.6), but Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker are not far behind.

As for pitching, SP Justin Verlander hasn’t given up a home run since July and is probably winning the Cy Young. The bullpen has the best xFIP in the majors (3.47).

If postseason experience matters, Houston has a ton of it. They are AL favorites for good reason.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers (17%, +275 to win World Series at FOX Bet)

Is it possible the Dodgers are even better than their gaudy record suggests? Pythagorean Record converts a team’s runs scored and runs allowed into the record they "should" have for the season. As great as the Dodgers have been, they’re actually even better by approximately five wins! And yet, their path to the World Series is much harder because they might face the Braves and Mets.

Still, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner & Co. have all contributed at least 150 hits each! Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Clayton Kershaw all have earned run averages of 2.30 or better. They hit well, pitch well and defend well. There are not too many seasons when a favorite has this much going for them.

2. Atlanta Braves (22%, +500 to win World Series at FOX Bet)

For the last time this season, I am promoting the "Bet on the Braves" article from June. This year’s edition now has OF Ronald Acuña, Jr., who ranks in the top 15 in hard-hit rate (49.9%). He leads a batting order that’s number-one in barrel rate (10.9%). They also have P Spencer Strider, who has one of the more effective four-seam fastballs in MLB. He’s part of a pitching staff that’s second in xFIP (3.56).

But one more reason why they’re in great shape to repeat as World Champions involves baserunning. Baseball-Reference has a metric called "Extra Base Taken Rate" that measures how often baserunners take second base on a typical single and third base on a typical double. The Braves are number-one with a 50% Extra Base Taken Rate.

It’s the little things that make the Braves such a big threat to repeat.

1. New York Yankees (25%, +500 to win World Series at FOX Bet)

Let’s take the focus away from Aaron Judge for a moment (the horror!). As a team, their .331 xwOBA is the best in baseball thanks to the contributions of other hitters like DH Giancarlo Stanton (11.3 barrels per plate appearance), 1B Anthony Rizzo (32 home runs) and 2B Gleyber Torres (7.5 barrels per plate appearance).

The pitching has also reached its own milestones, like SP Gerrit Cole breaking the Yankees’ all-time strikeout mark in one season. But will they have enough pitching depth and consistent power, all while potentially not having home-field advantage in the latter rounds of the postseason? That is the only thing stopping this team from making a deep postseason run.

So, there you have it! Those are your notes. Study them well, use them and build from here. Your grade — and your wallet — depends on it.

Class dismissed!

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.

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