Major League Baseball

MLB odds: Verlander, Scherzer, big trades impact World Series odds

Updated Aug. 2, 2023 3:48 p.m. ET

Of all the teams that made moves at the MLB trade deadline, Caesars Sports was likely hoping the Houston Astros would just stand pat. After all, for the second straight year, Caesars is holding a big-money World Series ticket courtesy of Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale.

But the Astros remain quite interested in winning a second straight championship. As such, they made one of the bigger moves ahead of Tuesday’s deadline, reacquiring pitcher Justin Verlander, who was part of last season’s World Series championship team.

Eric Biggio, Caesars’ lead baseball trader, dives into that transaction and others that impacted the World Series odds market.

Here are the biggest movers and shakers up the odds board.

Justin Time

Houston has been battling all season with the in-state rival Texas Rangers in the AL West. So when Texas showed it wasn’t messing around by working a Monday deal with the New York Mets to nab Max Scherzer, Houston perhaps felt compelled to do likewise.

So the Astros also went to the Mets – who held a fire sale ahead of the deadline – for a trade to bring back Verlander.

That prompted Caesars Sports to move the Astros from +650 to +550 to win the World Series.

"They’re ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays for shortest [World Series] odds in the American League," Biggio said. "Houston has been a good team all year. The Astros are the defending champs, after all. This move only cements their position as a World Series contender again this season."

And it further sturdies McIngvale’s $1.9 million preseason bet on the Astros +600 to win the World Series.

Granted, Caesars isn’t on the hook for nearly as much as last season, when McIngvale put a $3 million wager on Houston +1000 to win the World Series, for a $30 million payout. That was part of a series of seven-figure Astros wagers made at multiple sportsbooks, on which McIngvale won more than $70 million.

Still, should McIngvale’s $1.9 million wager hit, it would net a profit of $11.4 million.

"Obviously, getting Verlander makes that ticket a lot more attractive," McIngvale said Wednesday morning. "And with Framber Valdez getting that no-hitter last night, it was as good a day as any you could get for the Houston Astros. It certainly puts them in a different light."

McIngvale is a Houston furniture magnate who regularly ties promotions – often on bedding sets, hence the nickname Mattress Mack – to major sports events. If a certain team wins, everyone who took part in the promotion gets their furniture purchase free.

Then McIngvale ostensibly hedges by wagering on that same team. It’s a win-win. When the Astros claimed the title last year, he had to make good on all the furniture refunds. But he covered that loss with the $70 million-plus wagering win.

Mattress Mack hinted that he’s not done wagering on the Astros this season.

"I’ll be doing more as the season goes on," he said. "The Astros are certainly in position to defend their championship. It should be an exciting September, October and November."

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Texas Steps Up

As noted above, the Rangers added Scherzer to their rotation, among other moves ahead of the deadline. But Caesars held firm on Texas’ World Series odds at +850, making the Rangers the co-fourth choice with the Rays.

"The Rangers were recently swept by the Padres, and while normally that would have caused the odds to drift, they stayed where they were because of the additions," Biggio said. "We took some sharp money on the Rangers early in the season, when they were in the 40-1 range, and we’ve been keeping tabs on them ever since."

Houston still sits above Texas in odds to win the World Series, and post-trade deadline, Houston overtook Texas in division odds, too.

"The Rangers-Astros division race is one of the most compelling in baseball at the moment, along with the NL Central and AL East," Biggio said. "We had the Rangers -115, Astros even money going into [Tuesday], and I expect it to remain tight for the rest of the season."

The Verlander deal prompted Caesars to move the Astros to -110 division favorites, while the Rangers slipped back a bit to +110.

Mets’ Mess

When the season began, the New York Mets were among the top half-dozen or so teams in odds to win the World Series. But New York has been flailing all season.

Sitting five games under .500 and seven games out of the wild-card race, the Mets decided to punt on the 2023 campaign. Unfortunately, those who bet on the Mets don’t have that luxury. And there were plenty of Mets backers.

"Especially in New York and New Jersey, there was a lot of money on the Mets before the season started," Biggio said, while noting Caesars wouldn’t have minded having such a big-market team at least in the playoffs. "In terms of the World Series futures market, any scenario where the Mets or the Yankees are in the postseason would've brought more attention and business to the postseason games."

As it turns out, Caesars might not get the Yankees into the postseason either. New York has faltered without Aaron Judge in the lineup, sitting last in the hotly contested AL East, despite a still-above-.500 record of 55-52.

"The Yankees, who were also pretty quiet during the deadline, have seen their World Series odds drift from 20-1 a couple of weeks ago to 30-1 currently," Biggio said.

Movers and Shakers

Biggio said the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers – who sit 1-2 in World Series odds at +330 and +500, respectively – made adequate-enough moves to firm up their status. And he noted a pair of teams that have a ways to go, but are getting bettors’ attention at least for a playoff bid, if not the World Series.

"A couple of interesting teams that we've taken some money on are the Angels and Cubs. Both teams were right on the edge of being a buyer or seller at the deadline, and both teams decided to go for it," Biggio said. "With Shohei Ohtani on the Angels, they've definitely become a popular team with the public, and we've taken some good action on them in the 5-1 range to make the playoffs.

"The Cubs recently were on an eight-game winning streak, and that brought some good handle on them to win the NL Central. The Cubs have always been a public team, and the win streak only brought more support on their bandwagon."

Biggio also noted a couple of playoff-caliber teams that came up relatively empty at the trade deadline.

"I would say the Twins and Guardians. Both neck-and-neck for the AL Central, and neither added," Biggio said. "The Guardians traded for Noah Syndergaard last week but traded away another of their starters in Aaron Civale, as well as first baseman Josh Bell. The Twins, who are the favorite for the division, did nothing."

The Twins are -285 to win the AL Central, while the Guardians are +185. In World Series odds, Minnesota is +2800, and Cleveland is down the board a bit at +6000.

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Winners for the Book, Winners for the Bettors

So as all the trade deadline moves shake out, which teams would Caesars like to see make a World Series run?

"For whatever reason, a couple of Midwest teams have seen little to no action in futures, the Brewers and the Twins," Biggio said. "But as I mentioned earlier, while they would be a good result for the house in terms of World Series futures, I don't think they would attract much attention on game-by-game wagering, as opposed to what a Dodgers-Astros or Braves-Orioles World Series might attract."

On the flip side, bettors are rooting for two of the feel-good stories this season.

"As far as bettors go, there are two clear choices: the Baltimore Orioles and the Cincinnati Reds," Biggio said. "Bettors have jumped on the talented teams early in the year at big prices, and it hasn't slowed. Both teams are fun to watch, loaded with young talent and would be a win for the public."

Baltimore is currently the +1200 sixth choice in Caesars’ World Series odds, while Cincinnati can still be had for +4500.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas