Major League Baseball

MLB odds NLCS Game 5: How to bet Dodgers vs. Braves (and the single best bet)

Updated Oct. 21, 2021 5:20 p.m. ET

By Dave Sharapan
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

The Atlanta Braves are one win away from taking another step in an improbable journey to the World Series – but not if the Los Angeles Dodgers can pull off another playoff comeback.

Here's everything you need to know about the MLB odds on Thursday's National League Championship Series Game 5 matchup between the Dodgers and Braves — the run line, moneyline, total over/under and picks (with all MLB odds via FOX Bet).

ATLANTA BRAVES @ LOS ANGELES DODGERS (8:07 p.m. ET Thursday, TBS)

Run line: Dodgers -1 (Dodgers favored to win by more than 1 run, otherwise Braves cover)
Moneyline: Dodgers -143 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $17 total); Braves +120 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Total scoring over/under: 8 runs scored by both teams combined

Now, to help you make the best of your wagers, the FOX Sports betting team had five questions for me about Thursday night's Dodgers-Braves matchup.

I was more than happy to oblige. Here are my thoughts on each, along with the five bets I think you should consider in Game 5 of the NLCS.

1. Let’s start at the top. The public is on the Dodgers big-time in Game 5, with 64% of moneyline bets and 84% of spread bets at FOX Bet on Los Angeles. So … who you got, and by how many runs?

Look at the pitchers. It was Fried versus TBD. (Ed. note: The Dodgers have announced Joe Kelly as their Game 5 starter.)

I mean, the Dodgers can win for sure, but if I have to bet it, I am taking Fried. The Dodgers' bullpen is gassed. I don't want the TBD, and I don't envy Dave Roberts trying to piece this thing together to try to get back to Atlanta.

I am on the Braves in a very tough, close-out game by one or two runs.

PICK: Braves (+1 at FOX Bet) to win outright

2. The Dodgers are -143 on the moneyline and +105 at -1 on the run line. If I like Los Angeles, I should be betting on the run line, right?

Like Al Davis said with the Raiders, "Just Win, Baby," – and that works in LA, too!

Laying the run line is tough in the regular season, and I think it's even tougher in the postseason. I would rather lay the moneyline at the -143 price than lay the run, because if the Dodgers win by one and all you have to show is a push, you are gonna regret not playing the moneyline.

As I said above, this feels like it is going to be a close, back-and-forth game with a tight margin of victory, likely a one or two-run ballgame.

PICK (if you like the Dodgers): Dodgers to win outright (-143 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $17 total)

3. So far, this series has seen five runs scored, nine runs, then 11 runs twice. The over/under is set at 8, and the public is on the over, with 60% of bets. What’s your reaction?

I don't know who this "public" guy is, as I have been looking for him for years in books all over the world. But look at the ALCS and every game going over, as well. If the public was on that, they are getting paid.

In the book, you learn early that you will need the under more often than the over. So no surprise tonight. But with the bullpen for the Dodgers in the state that they are in, combined with Rosario and the hot bats the Braves are swinging, it feels like over is the only play.

PICK: OVER 8 runs scored by both teams combined

4. FOX Bet’s most popular prop for Game 5 is Will Smith, Albert Pujols & Corey Seager 1+ Hits Each (+250). Are you in? And if not, what’s a prop/custom bet at FOX Bet you do like?

It's hard enough to pick one guy to get a hit, let alone three. So, no, I am not in on that one.

But one that I did find that I like was Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman to get at least one hit each. Individually, they are both -500 to get a hit. That parlay has odds of -225. The boost is -120. We're always looking for value in these things, and I get two big-game guys in the middle of the lineup to each get a hit at a discounted price.

Yes, it still has to win, but it's a good bet based on the numbers.

PICK: Trea Turner & Freddie Freeman to get 1+ hit each (boosted to -120; bet $10 to win $18.33 total at FOX Bet)

5. What’s your absolute favorite bet on the board for Game 5?

I think the Braves are going to keep hitting against whoever the Dodgers throw tonight, and I think the game is going over the total. The Dodgers could win, but they will have to outscore Atlanta to do so; I will be surprised if the Braves don't put up at least four runs in this one.

So, after scrolling through all the options and all the bets, I think the Braves OVER 3.5 runs is my favorite bet.

Selfishly, I want to see the Dodgers win, so we can see more baseball. More games, more action, and baseball, bruh!!

PICK: Braves OVER 3.5 runs scored (-105; bet $10 to win $19.52 total)

Dave Sharapan is a longtime oddsmaker who spent 20-plus years in sportsbooks around the world. He is a current sports betting analyst, writer and sports bettor himself with Pittsburgh roots who lives in Las Vegas and has more hats than he possibly can count. You can follow him on Twitter @SportsbkConsig.

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