Major League Baseball

MLB odds NLCS Game 6: How to bet Dodgers vs. Braves (and the single best bet)

Updated Oct. 23, 2021 6:29 p.m. ET

By Dave Sharapan
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

We're halfway there — halfway to the 2021 World Series matchup being set, that is!

On the other side of the bracket, the Atlanta Braves are one win away from their first World Series appearance since 1999. Of course, to get there, they'll have to knock off a Los Angeles Dodgers team that came back from a similar 3-1 deficit in last year's NLCS.

Can the Braves take care of business? Will the Dodgers force an epic Game 7? Here's everything you need to know about the MLB odds on Saturday's Game 6 NLCS matchup between the Dodgers and Braves – the run line, moneyline, total over/under and picks (with all MLB odds via FOX Bet).

LOS ANGELES DODGERS @ ATLANTA BRAVES (8:08 p.m. ET Saturday, TBS)

Run line: Dodgers -1 (Dodgers favored to win by more than 1 run; otherwise Braves cover)
Moneyline: Dodgers -150 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.67 total); Braves +125 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: 8 runs scored by both teams combined

So, whoever would've told me that Luis Garcia would no-hit the Red Sox into the sixth inning — well, that guy would've had all of my money.

I'm not surprised the Astros won on Friday, but I am surprised the Red Sox didn't bring their bats to Houston for the trip. And now, we get to see who we will be rooting for in the World Series (because, at least for me, it won't be the Astros … unless I bet on them).

We were all thrown a curveball in Game 6, though, as the Dodgers received the bad news that pitcher Max Scherzer, the expected Game 6 starter and a three-time Cy Young Award winner, would not be able to take the mound after saying his arm was dead.

Instead, Los Angeles is expected to hand the ball to right-hander Walker Buehler in what could be the last game of the season for the boys in blue (although the Dodgers have won their past 10 elimination games, as we all know).

Needless to say, there's plenty of uncertainty heading into Saturday night. So to help you make the best of your wagers, the FOX Sports betting team threw five questions my way about Game 6.

I was more than happy to oblige. Here are my thoughts on each, along with the bets I think you should consider in Game 6 of the NLCS.

1. You've said it yourself already: There's just nothing like a Game 7 in baseball. So ... are we getting one? Who wins tonight, and by how many runs?

I really, really want to see a Game 7, but the Dodgers' pitching situation is dire. From Scherzer to now Walker Buehler, there is no Game 7 if there is no Dodger win in Game 6. As a fan, then, I want to see LA win, so we have a Sunday baseball game to watch.

As a bettor, I hate laying the -150 price in what is essentially a pick ‘em game. The only loyalty in the book is to your bankroll, and, as a book guy, I cannot pass up the price on the Braves. We’re getting plus money at home this time.

Bra-vos by 1.

PICK: Braves (+125 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $22.50) to win outright

2. Max Scherzer's "dead arm" has become the defining story of Game 6. How does that kind of late-breaking news affect handicapping a game like this, both behind the counter and as a gambler?

The late-breaking news is tough, but from behind the counter, it creates different challenges than just changing the line. — because most of the time, you get bets before you get the news. Social media has become just as important to monitor along with the lines on all the games. This moneyline opened as high as -175 and has come down to the -145 area now.

As a bettor, you cannot get caught up in line moves when you make plays, but you should always try to get the best number. And it's different for moneyline sports like baseball as opposed to point spreads. Handicap the game, ideally have a number you want, and get it when you can.

3. Speaking of pitching changes, the majority of total over/under bets were on the under headed into last night, before the Scherzer news led to a surge in bets on the over at FOX Bet. Wishful thinking by fans with Walker Buehler taking the mound, or do you think we'll see the scoreboard light up in Game 6?

I think it's a little bit of both. With Scherzer off the table for the game, the natural inclination is to think more runs will be scored. The market reflects that, as the bets on over came and keep coming. Sometimes, the public guy is right, and sometimes, all the parallelograms and rhombuses end up on the same side.

Last night, the over train came to a screeching halt in Houston, but I think we see runs from both sides tonight in the ATL. Yes on the Over!

PICK: Over 8 runs (+100 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $20 total) scored by both teams combined

4. Let's zoom out a little bit. If I wanted to make a World Series futures bet right now, with the field down to the Astros (-167), Braves (+240) and Dodgers (+425), where should I put my money and why?

If you think the Dodgers have any chance to win the next two games, this is the best price you can get on them this season moving forward to win the World Series.

If you think the Braves are going to win tonight, you take this price right now, unless you want to do the rollover thing we discussed yesterday in the Series itself.

As far as Houston, I would hold off on that at that price, because I don't think that will be the World Series price when the match up is determined. And who wants to bet the Astros anyway?

PICK (if you like Los Angeles): Dodgers (+425 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $52.50 total) to win the World Series
PICK (if you like Atlanta): Braves (+240 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $34 total total) to win the World Series

5. The beautiful thing about sports betting is that for gamblers, there's never really an elimination game — because there's another wager right around the corner. That said, if you could only make one bet tonight, what would it be?

Good thing there is always another game or another bet to make after the Red Sox game last night! They couldn't get any hits.

As for tonight? Since I am thinking Over, let's go with the three hottest guys in the series to each get one: Mookie Betts, Ozzie Albies and Cody Bellinger each to get a hit is +200, and that is the one for me. All three of them could make an argument for MVP, and, you know, big players show up in big moments.

Hopefully, we have at least 12 at-bats between them, and we see each of them taking off the batting armor on the basepaths tonight. Runs, hits and baseball, bruh!

PICK: Mookie Betts, Ozzie Albies & Cody Bellinger all to record at least one hit (+200 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $30 total)

Dave Sharapan is a longtime oddsmaker who spent 20-plus years in sportsbooks around the world. He is a current sports betting analyst, writer and sports bettor himself with Pittsburgh roots who lives in Las Vegas and has more hats than he possibly can count. You can follow him on Twitter @SportsbkConsig.

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