Major League Baseball

MLB odds: Phillies new favorites to win World Series; Harper favored to win MVP

Updated Nov. 2, 2022 4:32 p.m. ET

With Game 4 on tap and the Philadelphia Phillies leading the Houston Astros 2-1, World Series odds have seen a flip on the favorite. The Phillies are now the oddsmakers’ choice to win the Fall Classic at multiple sportsbooks, including FOX Bet.

And directly related to that, Bryce Harper is now the favorite in World Series MVP odds.

In the wake of the Phillies’ impressive Game 3 win, bettors have been firing on both those fronts. And understandably so, as the game 3 winner has captured the series 69% of the time.

Let's dive into the World Series odds movement.

Jump the fence

Prior to Tuesday’s Game 3, Houston was a -175 favorite and Philadelphia a +145 underdog at BetMGM to win the World Series. That was just slightly shy of the pre-World Series odds of Astros -185/Phillies +165.

But after Philly’s knockout Game 3 performance, a 7-0 shutout to take a 2-1 series lead, BetMGM’s World Series odds jumped the fence. The Phillies are now -150 favorites to lift the trophy, and the Astros are +125 underdogs.

And BetMGM customers are betting with fistfuls of cash on the new favorite.

"It’s been all Philly and Harper the last 24 hours," BetMGM sports trader Halvor Egeland said Wednesday. "We’re seeing 70% of the money on the Phillies for Game 4, and I’d estimate it’s been around the same [percentage] on the series odds."

Granted, it’s still not nearly enough Phillies money for BetMGM to overcome its massive liability to the Astros. Back in July, Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale made a $2 million bet on Houston at 5-1 to win the World Series, a ticket that would net $10 million. The wager is part of Mattress Mack’s $10 million portfolio of Astros bets at multiple sportsbooks, to win approximately $75 million.

But BetMGM is certainly happy to see some Phillies money flowing.

Close it out at home?

By rebounding from their Game 2 loss, the Phillies can actually close out the World Series on their home turf. And Dylan Brossman, FOX Bet’s trading operations senior manager, said odds favor Philadelphia to do so.

"The Phils are favored in Game 4 with Aaron Nola back on the mound. They will likely be favored in Game 5, regardless of who gets the start, thanks to the firepower their offense has shown at Citizens Bank this postseason," Brossman said. "If the Astros are able to split [Games 4 and 5], things will get interesting as the series heads back to Houston. In that scenario, the Astros would likely be favored in Games 6 and 7.

"But the Phillies would remain World Series favorites, needing only to win one of two."

MVP money

In the World Series MVP odds market, Harper is now the dominant force. His two-run homer in the first inning of Game 3 lit the fuse for Philly in its shutout rout, and it further fueled the fire for MVP bettors, too.

Egeland made a good point with regard to World Series betting strategy: A Harper MVP bet presents more value than a wager on the Phillies to win the World Series.

"We [posted] Harper at +180 following Game 3 and have since moved to +170," Egeland said. "It seems like a decent amount of bettors are thinking there’s more value in getting +170 on Harper instead of the Phillies -150. I can’t say I disagree with them, either. It seems like every time Harper is up, he comes through with a clutch hit."

Anybody who jumped on Harper early in the MLB playoffs certainly did much better. Harper was +4000 prior to the National League Division Series against Atlanta. By Game 1 of the World Series, the Phillies star had shortened to +700, then went to +500 after Philadelphia’s 6-5, 10-inning victory.

Harper stretched out to +850 after Philadelphia lost 5-2 in Game 2. But his Game 3 heroics saw BetMGM shoot him up to the +170 favorite. Phillies teammate Kyle Schwarber is well back as the +850 second choice.

"Both Harper and [Nick] Castellanos are six-figure losers for us as of now," Egeland said, alluding to another Harper teammate who is a longer shot at +3000. "We had a $5,000 bet for Castellanos at 40-1 at the beginning of the series."

And a Phillies pitcher is getting attention in the wake of Game 3.

"We’re seeing some decent interest for Ranger Suárez at 50-1 after [Tuesday] night. But I anticipate Harper is going to get most of the action until first pitch tonight," Egeland said.

Brossman said Harper’s body of work throughout the postseason should have him winning the MVP trophy – provided, of course, the Phillies win the title. Harper is the +170 favorite in FOX Bet’s World Series MVP odds.

"If the Phillies are crowned champs, it is no surprise that Bryce Harper will be the clear favorite to be named MVP," Brossman said. "Harper is the definitive leader of the team and has the cumulative postseason statistics to back it up."

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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