Major League Baseball

MLB odds: Updated World Series 2021 lines (and 3 rules to know)

Updated Oct. 31, 2021 4:28 p.m. ET

By Dave Sharapan
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

And then, there were two.

The Atlanta Braves began the 2021 MLB season as +1000 underdogs to win the World Series. The Houston Astros were an even longer shot to win it all at +2500.

Yet here the two teams are. So while we're here, let's take a look at the updated odds to win the World Series …

ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES (via FOX Bet)*

Atlanta Braves: -500 (bet $10 to win $12 total)
Houston Astros: +400 (bet $10 to win $50 total)

*As of 10/31/2021 at 2 p.m. ET

In my World Series Game 5 picks, I made a case that the Astros might be a good bet to come back and win it all:

"I don't want this to be the last gambling opportunity of the 2021 MLB season, and if Houston wins, it won't be. So, if you think we can win one game tonight, I think we can bet Houston to win the Series at +400. That will look like a very good price and give us more opportunities if we can get this thing to Tuesday."

PICK if you think Astros win Game 5: Astros to win the World Series (+400 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $50 total)

And before Tuesday's Game 1, here were the three general rules I suggested to keep in mind for betting the 2021 World Series, plus a few picks, with all odds via FOX Bet.

TOP 10 ODDS TO WIN 2021 WORLD SERIES MVP (via FOX Bet)*

Jose Altuve: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Yordan Alvarez: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Freddie Freeman: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Michael Brantley: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Carlos Correa: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Alex Bregman: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Kyle Tucker: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Austin Riley: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Max Fried: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Eddie Rosario: +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)

*Prior to Game 1

WORLD SERIES BETTING RULE NUMBER ONE: IT'S ALL ABOUT GAME 1

You’ve talked about "rolling over" a bet from one game to the next instead of placing a futures wager a couple of times this postseason. If I really, really like one of these teams, should I bet their futures price to win the World Series now, or should I just let it ride on the moneyline from game to game?

The future price before the series is basically the Game 7 price. Fun fact. So what I have seen the "bag guys" do for years, especially in a pretty evenly matched series like this one, is take the plus price on the series if they think the underdog is live to win Game 1.

By that, I mean that if they think the Braves are going to win Game 1, they bet the Braves to win the series. Then, if they are right, they are holding a plus-money ticket on an updated series price where that team is a minus-money favorite going into Game 2. (Ed. note: And if you took this advice, you had a perfect hedge opportunity by betting the Astros to win the World Series before Game 2 at a plus-money price!)

Others will just bet the moneyline game to game, because anything could happen, between injuries, dead arms or cold hitting lineups (I see you, Red Sox lineup).

Two schools of thought, and to each their own. There is no one way. Just remember, nobody knows squadoosh! That's why they play the games.

PICK (if you think the Braves will win Game 1): Braves +130 to win the World Series (bet $10 to win $23 total)

WORLD SERIES BETTING RULE NUMBER 2: IT'S JUST ANOTHER GAME

There are so many factors to consider when handicapping a baseball game. What do you look for when you're making your bet — or setting lines, for that matter? Pitchers? Hitters on hot streaks? Trends? Historical data? And does any of that change in the World Series?

In a risk room, as an oddsmaker, you are always trying to "get to the number." That means you get to a comfortable line that you like and take bets. The World Series is game number 173 for both of these teams, and, ideally, the process is the same. Dress up, show up, put it up, take bets. Rinse and repeat.

And enjoy it, because before you know it, college basketball is here and there are over 300 teams to worry about making lines for every day!

As far as what to look at, the cold, hard truth is that there is so much to look at now, and the information is available on both sides of the counter. You can look at too much and get paralysis by analysis. You can go back and look at splits, along with things called FIP and WHIP.

I think you need to look at it all and use it for what you want, then make decisions from there.

WORLD SERIES BETTING RULE NUMBER THREE: KEEP IT SIMPLE

What is the biggest mistake that rookie bettors make when they’re betting on baseball?

One mistake that rookie bettors make is betting too much. Not just in that they make too many bets (because the options are endless), but they bet too much, amount-wise, because it is the end of the season.

They spread too much of their bankroll on stuff that they know very little about just for the action. Again, nobody knows squadoosh, but you don't bet the K props now just because they are up. It's fine to do multiple bets, and it can and does make watching the game even more fun, but keep the units you wager the same, and ideally have at least some reason for making a bet!

While we're here, let's talk about the most popular prop market for the series — World Series MVP. Because it's voted on by other people, making numbers or betting on it is always a challenge. We could all watch the same exact thing and the vote could be drastically different. It's not like a game that has a score, with a winner and a loser. So we are handicapping the game and what we think will happen, along with the people who are watching the game with a vote and who they will pick for MVP. That's not an easy parlay!

When I look at World Series MVP, I think we have to go away from the guys like Yordan Alvarez and Eddie Rosario. They are the hottest hitters on planet Earth, but it's pretty rare for a hitter to win MVP both in the LCS and WS.

So let's simplify things. We are going to go with two guys from each team who have to play well for their team to win it all. For the Astros, that's Alex Bregman or Yuli Gurriel. We're staying away from the obvious choices for Houston because the odds aren't high enough. But if the Astros win, it's because of one of those two guys. For the Braves, it's the obvious choices Freddie Freeman or Austin Riley because for them to win, these guys have to hit.

Where are the pitchers, you might ask? I ruled out all the pitchers, because other than the Game 1 starters (Charlie Morton and Framber Valdez), I don't think a pitcher can win it.

Once your plays are made, sit back and enjoy — until you start making in-game wagers, of course, but that is a whole other story! THE WORLD SERIES IS HERE! OCTOBER BASEBALL, BRUH!

PICK: Houston's Alex Bregman to win World Series MVP (+1200 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $130 total)
PICK: Houston's Yuli Gurriel to win World Series MVP (+2500 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $260 total)
PICK: Atlanta's Freddie Freeman to win World Series MVP (+1100 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $120 total)
PICK: Atlanta's Austin Riley to win World Series MVP (+1400 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $150 total)

Dave Sharapan is a longtime oddsmaker who spent 20-plus years in sportsbooks around the world. He is a current sports betting analyst, writer and sports bettor himself with Pittsburgh roots who lives in Las Vegas and has more hats than he possibly can count. You can follow him on Twitter @SportsbkConsig.

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