Major League Baseball

MLB odds: Yankees, Astros battle as AL pennant favorites

Updated Aug. 16, 2022 3:58 p.m. ET

We've got a hotly contested race that should go down to the wire in the American League as the New York Yankees and Houston Astros are battling for the AL's best record and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

FOX Bet has each team at +170 this week to win the American League pennant as the Astros have passed the Yankees for the AL's best record.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the battle for the AL pennant, with insights from our betting expert (all MLB odds via FOX Bet).

YANKEES, ASTROS ODDS (via FOX Bet) *

Astros to win American League West: -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10 total)
Yankees to win American League East: -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10 total)

Astros to win American League pennant: +170 (bet $10 to win $27 total)
Yankees to win American League pennant: +170 (bet $10 to win $27 total)

Astros to win World Series: +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)
Yankees to win World Series: +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)

* = as of 8/16/2022

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According to sportsoddshistory.com, the Yankees were +450 and the Astros +500 to win the AL pennant on May 1. They dropped to +175 for New York and +250 for Houston on July 1. The Yankees were +130 and the Astros +200 on Aug. 1.

The slumping Yankees have lost 10 of their past 12 and have been shut out in their past two games, 3-0 to the Red Sox on Sunday and 4-0 to the Rays on Monday. They are 8-16 since the All-Star break.

Meanwhile, the Astros have won four of their past five.

FOX Sports MLB betting analyst Edward Egros urges bettors to focus on the big picture, not just the most recent games.

"It’s foolish to look at the Yankees’ slump and arbitrarily look at the last 14 games and conclude that version of the Yankees is more reflective of the entire season than any other stretch," Egros said. "For 2022, my numbers still have the Yankees as the best ballclub in the American League. "

But Egros said there is a reason to back the Astros.

"If you look at the last 50 games — a good, round number that does emphasize recency but with a large enough sample size — the Astros have been the better team largely because of pitching," Egros said.

While ace Justin Verlander, 39, continues to overpower Father Time (15-3, 1.85 ERA, 0.86 WHIP), the Astros' relievers are getting the job done, Egros said. Houston's bullpen has a MLB-low 2.89 ERA and have allowed the fewest home runs (25). Ryan Pressly is fourth in the AL in saves with 23.

"Much of that credit actually belongs to the Houston bullpen," Egros noted. "If the postseason started today, Houston should be the favorites to win the pennant, but there is enough time for the Yankees to be the Yankees again."

The Yankees, powered by AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge (-500, bet $10 to win $12 total), won 16 out of 17 games in June to help propel them to a 50-17 record as of June 20, the best in the major leagues since the 2001 Mariners.

Yet the Astros were lurking at 42-25 after 67 games. An eight-game win streak into early July moved them to 53-27, then Houston won its first five after the All-Star Break to go to 64-32 while Yankees were 66-31.

The Astros passed the Yankees when they went to 72-41 after beating the Rangers 7-3 on Aug. 11 while Yankees were the idle at 71-41.

"Despite the Yankees dropping eight of their last 10, they are still receiving more action than the Astros to win the AL," said Dylan Brossman, FOX Bet senior trading operations manager. "With both teams now sitting at +170, a playoff clash between Houston and New York seems inevitable.

"A hypothetical matchup would likely see the Yankees as very slight favorites."

So, who ya got to represent the American League in the Fall Classic? Head over to FOX Bet for all your MLB wagers.

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