Major League Baseball

MLB offseason preview: 10 stories to watch, highlighted by Shohei Ohtani's free agency

Published Nov. 2, 2023 9:00 a.m. ET

The World Series is over. Congratulations are due to the Texas Rangers, whose postseason run defied the odds, but 29 teams have put the 2023 campaign behind them.

Here are 10 of the biggest offseason storylines to watch as the baseball world turns its attention toward the future.

1. Where does Shohei Ohtani go?

Ah, the $400 ($500?) million question of the offseason!

This is the one offseason move that could transform the future of a franchise. Adding to the intrigue is the extraordinary range of possibilities.

The Dodgers are considered among the favorites, considering their past endeavors trying to sign the two-way superstar, the proximity to the place he spent the first six years of his major-league career and the financial commitments of their ownership group. They're also the most consistent postseason participant in the sport, which might appeal to a player who never sniffed October baseball with the Angels. But no one really knows what Ohtani will value most, which makes the sweepstakes so fascinating.

If Ohtani wants to be on the West Coast, the Giants, Padres and Mariners — all of whom were among the finalists to sign him initially — could make strong pitches. If it's simply about money, the Mets and Yankees could get involved. The Rangers and Cubs were also on Ohtani's list of seven finalists the last time he was available, and perhaps their uptick this past year was convincing. Of course, the Angels will also make their pitch, hoping the familiarity of Anaheim will play a bigger role in his decision than their ineptitude since employing the generational talent.

Simply put, every team willing to spend could be in the mix. Let the games begin.

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2. Where do the top pitchers land?

Ohtani won't pitch in 2024. But teams looking to enhance their rotations are in luck.

There are a handful of potential $100 million men on the market, each offering different skill sets and proficiencies.

Blake Snell, a front-runner for the National League Cy Young Award, finished this season with the best ERA and second-best strikeout rate among all major-league starters. Aaron Nola has pitched the second-most innings in baseball over the past six years, registering at least 200 strikeouts in each full season over that time. Jordan Montgomery has raised his profile tremendously this year while demonstrating his postseason fortitude, helping navigate the Rangers' rotation to and through October.

Snell, Montgomery and Nola are all 30 years old. The most interesting and intriguing option for teams this winter is five years younger.

It would not be surprising at all to see Yoshinobu Yamamoto sign the largest non-Ohtani deal in free agency. Not including two-way talents, he could be the best NPB pitcher the majors has ever seen. Yamamoto, who won Japan's version of the Cy Young Award for a third straight season, is expected to be posted this offseason and could command $200 million as a potential rotation headliner.

Among the other names to watch are Eduardo Rodríguez, Lucas Giolito and Clayton Kershaw.

Speaking of …

3. What's next for Clayton Kershaw?

The veteran lefty has not yet tipped his hand regarding his future. He may not know yet.

Kershaw, the Dodgers' all-time strikeout and WAR leader, orchestrated another highly productive campaign at 35 years old. But once again, his body did not fully cooperate. This time it was his shoulder causing him problems in the season's second half.

He managed to limit damage in August and September, but it was evident from both his pitch count and velocity that he was not himself following the injury, which has yet to be specified. Then came Game 1 of the National League Division Series, when he failed to make it out of the first inning against the Diamondbacks in the worst start of his career.

Whether that's the final image of Kershaw in a Dodgers uniform will be up to him. He has said he will continue to take one-year deals either with the Dodgers or his hometown Rangers for the rest of his career. He has not said if 2023 was his final season.

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4. How do the managerial openings get filled?

The Giants have their new manager in former Padres manager Bob Melvin, who was granted permission to make the rare intra-divisional move with a year remaining on his contract in San Diego. That fills one managerial vacancy after the Giants fired Gabe Kapler with three games still remaining on their schedule.

Many others remain in the balance.

For one, the team that let Melvin go is still searching for his replacement. After a disappointing year in San Diego that saw the Padres finish third in their division, they will want someone who can take them back to the playoffs immediately. It appears Benji Gil, Mike Shildt, Ryan Flaherty and Phil Nevin are among the candidates for the job.

Nevin is out in Anaheim after the Angels declined his option for the 2024 season. He went 119-149 over parts of two seasons as the Angels' manager. The team finished the 2023 season with the same disappointing 73-89 record it had a year prior.

Not every opening was the result of a firing. This October, Astros manager Dusty Baker announced his retirement while Guardians manager Terry Francona said he will be stepping down due to health concerns.

The most interesting name to watch is Craig Counsell, whose contract with the Brewers expired this week. He has interviewed with the Guardians, and he has also been tied to the Mets, who let Buck Showalter go.

5. How will this season impact team spending?

Showalter and general manager Billy Eppler are out in Queens. New president of baseball operations David Stearns is in and now must pave the path forward after a wildly disappointing season from the most costly team in the sport.

It will be interesting to see how teams might vary their approaches to free agency, given how this year went. The Mets, Yankees and Padres operated with the highest payrolls in the sport this year. All three watched the playoffs from home.

But spending is not always a cautionary tale.

While the Diamondbacks reached the World Series behind a largely homegrown roster and the 20th-ranked payroll in baseball, the Rangers spent massively to supplement their young talent. It cost them $500 million to add Marcus Semien and Corey Seager after a 102-loss season in 2021. They kept going this past offseason with varying degrees of success, adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney.

Semien and Seager now headline one of the top lineups in the sport, while Eovaldi and Heaney proved vital to the Rangers' extraordinary turnaround. Spending wildly doesn't always work; the Rangers are proof of what can happen when it does.

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6. Which big names get dealt or extended?

The answer to Question 5 could dictate the answer to Question 6.

Juan Soto and Pete Alonso are entering the final year of their contract with the Padres and Mets, respectively, and the teams will have decisions to make about whether those players get long-term deals, get dealt or play out the season. This will be a vital transition year for both clubs as they figure out how to navigate their futures and potential championship timelines after underperforming in 2023.

The Brewers will also be an interesting team to keep an eye on, with Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames and Brandon Woodruff all slated for free agency after the 2024 season. Will they all finish the year in Milwaukee? If the Cardinals' slide continues, could Paul Goldschmidt get dealt before he's a free agent in 2025? And could another team tempt the Angels to deal Mike Trout?

There's plenty to watch not only in this year's free-agent class but with a number of high-profile contracts set to expire at the end of next season.

7. Where do the Yankees go from here?

Speaking of teams stuck in the middle, the Yankees find themselves in an unenviable spot. Their offense was dreadful. Their pitching staff was depleted. They seemed resigned to their fate at the deadline. Now, there's no easy path forward besides continuing to spend.

Their 2024 financial commitments remain among the highest in the sport, while their farm system is universally ranked in the league's bottom half. To make matters worse, top prospect Jasson Dominguez needed Tommy John surgery after a thrilling start to his big-league career.

Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole give them a floor that other teams don't possess, but they'll need to hope for better health, more production from Carlos Rodón, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu, a jump forward from Anthony Volpe — and some more roster moves to fix the offense.

The Yankees have officially hit rock bottom

8. What's next for Cody Bellinger?

Perhaps the Yankees' offensive answers start here.

In a barren position-player market, Bellinger picked a great time to have an extraordinary bounce-back season. He completely redefined his offensive profile, cutting his strikeout rate almost in half and favoring contact over slug to log his best season since his 2019 MVP campaign.

It'll be interesting to see how that production gets compensated and how many years a team is willing to commit, particularly considering his struggles of the previous two years. Bellinger's OPS+ the past three seasons: 44, 81, 133.

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9. Could more rule changes come?

The 2023 rule changes were a dashing success. After adding a pitch clock, limiting shifts and enlarging the bases, it doesn't sound like Major League Baseball is in a rush to make more changes. But topics such as automatic balls and strikes will continue to be a discussion. So will the postseason format.

For a second straight year since the new playoff structure was introduced, the best teams in baseball are struggling to handle the layoff (beginning last year, the top two division winners in each league earned byes, creating a five-day hiatus before the division series). Opinions vary on whether that's a bad thing. This year, three of those four teams failed to make it to their league championship series. Home-field advantage also hasn't appeared to matter much, as the Rangers demonstrated this year. The sample size might be too small to make any sweeping changes, but these will continue to be topics to monitor.

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10. How, if at all, do those division winners change their strategies?

The Dodgers and Braves have won a combined 416 games over the past two seasons. They also haven't made it out of the National League Division Series in that time. The formulas that got them to October failed to carry them through October.

This year in particular was particularly discouraging. The Dodgers ran out of starting pitching, but their offensive stars also came up shockingly empty in the postseason. The Braves' offensive struggles were even more stunning. After slugging to a historic .501 clip during the regular season, they mustered eight runs with a .519 OPS over a four-game loss to the Phillies in the NLDS.

Perhaps, some of it can be chalked up to the randomness of the postseason, but it will be fascinating to see what roster moves the two NL regular-season powerhouses might make specifically to change their recent playoff woes.

Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and MLB as a whole for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers' editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.