Major League Baseball

MLB playoff odds: Best bets for Astros-Yankees, Padres-Phillies

Updated Oct. 22, 2022 2:36 p.m. ET

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

The MLB league championship series continues Saturday between the Houston Astros and New York Yankees in the American League and the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies in the National League.

I will guide you through these playoffs by giving you daily study materials. That homework consists of previewing each game with some bets I like for the daily slate.

That is the school bell, which can only mean one thing.

Class is back in session!

Here are my favorite bets for Saturday's games, with odds via FOX Bet (all times ET).

MLB Playoffs: New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 2 recap

Ben Verlander and Alex Curry break down Game 2 of the ALCS between the Yankees and Astros.

Houston Astros (Cristian Javier) at New York Yankees (Gerrit Cole), 5:07 p.m. (TBS)

When handicapping this game and the rest of both series, it’s important to remember there is no travel – or rest – day for the rest of this round. After Game 5, if necessary, the series will return to the other ballpark immediately.

While the Yankees almost cannot be down three games in this series, advancing to the World Series may include preserving Gerrit Cole even if he is having a monster day. He’s more than capable, with a strikeout rate and a whiff rate in the 92nd percentile of all pitchers.

The weather should not be as big of a storyline as it was in Game 2, so I like Yordan Alvarez to have at least one hit.

I also believe, at some point, the outstanding hard-hit rates of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton & Co. will come through – even in a four-game sample size, it’s still enough to have an offensive explosion. This is why I like Judge to have at least two bases and the Yankees to win on the moneyline.

PICK: Yordan Alvarez to get a hit (-138 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $17.25 total)
PICK: Aaron Judge to get two or more total bases (+110 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $21 total)
PICK: Yankees (-154 moneyline at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $16.49 total) to win Game 3

MLB Playoffs: San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies NLCS Game 3 Recap

Ben Verlander and Alex Curry breakdown and recap a wild NLCS game 3 between the Padres and Phillies.

San Diego Padres (Mike Clevinger) at Philadelphia Phillies (Bailey Falter), 7:30 p.m. (FOX and FOX Sports App)

For the Phillies, it is officially a bullpen game as Bailey Falter will almost certainly work one time through the order – if that – and potentially Noah Syndergaard coming on in relief.

For the Padres, Mike Clevinger’s name may not signify a bullpen game. After all, in 14 out of 23 appearances, Clevinger did make it through five innings.

Also, even though it is the postseason, and we’re dealing with small sample sizes, San Diego manager Bob Melvin prefers keeping his starters in games as long as reasonable.

Because there’s more uncertainty surrounding additional arms for the Phillies, I like the Padres to win the race to three runs.

Also, the Padres do have the better bullpen if you go by expected fielding independent pitching (3.84 vs. 3.98). I like the Pads to score more than 4.5 runs.

While the Phillies have outstanding hitters who could still win this game, the Padres' path to several runs seems more predictable and reliable here, so I would prefer not touching too many Phillies bets and focusing only on what Juan Soto, Manny Machado & Co. should do in Game 4.

PICK: Padres first to score three runs (-133 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $17.52 total)
PICK: Padres to score more than 4.5 runs (+125 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $22.50 total)

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.