Major League Baseball

MLB playoff odds: Best bets for Friday's divisional round

Updated Oct. 14, 2022 1:58 p.m. ET

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

The MLB division series round is here, as we're down to the final eight teams. From a betting perspective, I have you covered.

I will guide you through these playoffs by giving you daily study materials. That homework consists of previewing each game with some bets I like for the daily slate.

That is the school bell, which can only mean one thing:

Class is back in session!

Here are my favorite bets for Friday's games, with odds via FOX Bet (all times ET).

Cleveland Guardians (Shane Bieber) at New York Yankees (Nestor Cortes), 1:07 p.m. (TBS)

Missing the strike zone would suggest bad command. But Shane Bieber has earned the benefit of the doubt.

His slider and curveball each have a whiff rate of at least 39%, which is outstanding, given how well hitters make contact in this era of baseball. He doesn’t walk too many batters, allows a .245 expected batting average (which is top 30 in the bigs) and has the fourth-most out-of-zone swings and misses with 271.

This matchup may pose problems for the Yankees. CSW% is a statistic that combines called strikes and whiff rate. It tends to be stable from game to game and season to season. The Yankees are second worst in this statistic at 28.7%. The Bronx Bombers are dangerous offensively, but they can be fooled.

Given these statistics and the simple fact that Nestor Cortes does not give up many hits, thanks to an effective four-seam fastball, how do we bet on this game?

For starters, I like Cleveland to cover the one run (-138). I’m not comfortable betting on any hitting props since these hurlers are so good in their matchups; any contact that drops for a hit may be random. Instead, anything involving going over strikeouts is fair game. The one I like the most is Bieber Over 5.5 strikeouts (+114).

PICK: Guardians to win outright or lose by one run for a push (run line +1 at FOX Bet, -138, bet $10 to win $17.25 total)
PICK: Shane Bieber Over 5.5 strikeouts (+114 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $21.40 total)

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (Nola),
4:37 p.m. (FS1)

Anything the Braves get from Aaron Nola, they’ll have to earn. For the season, the Phillies hurler has the second-lowest walk rate in the majors, trailing only Corey Kluber. While his fastball is his first love, Nola does pinpoint his curveball and sinker at the edges of the strike zone, causing an out-of-zone swing and miss rate of 46.7%, ranking in the top 15.

However, you always worry with Nola that if hitters make contact, can his defense make plays?

Atlanta already has great results when pitches are thrown in the shadow of the strike zone, ranking fourth-highest in expected weighted on-base average (.278). So how do we bet this information? Philadelphia’s defense is still suspect, so any contact may be good contact.

Take the Braves to score Over 3.5 runs. I also lean towards taking the Braves on the moneyline.

PICK: Braves team total Over 3.5 runs (+110 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $21 total)
PICK: Braves (moneyline -105 at FOX Bet) to win the game

Los Angeles Dodgers (Gonsolin) at San Diego Padres (Snell)
8:37 p.m. (FS1)

It would not surprise me to see both ball clubs go to the bullpens early in Game 3 but for different reasons.

Tony Gonsolin recovered from a forearm strain last month but only pitched two innings in his lone outing before the postseason. For Blake Snell, the hook in Game 6 of the World Series is still a lasting memory, but San Diego does treat him somewhat similarly. He has only pitched seven innings twice all season. If we are to assume the bullpens will come in early, I like Snell to go under 6.5 strikeouts (-132).

The Dodgers do have the better relievers if you go by expected fielding independent pitching (3.53 vs 3.84). I’d lay the run on LA (+115 on FOX Bet).

PICK: Dodgers (-1 run line at FOX Bet) to win by more than 1 run

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.

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