Major League Baseball

MLB playoff odds: Best bets for Padres-Phillies

Updated Oct. 21, 2022 4:53 p.m. ET

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Game 3 of the MLB National League Championship Series is this evening, with the Houston Astros seeking revenge over the San Diego Padres, who got the best of them in Game 2. If you want to bet on this game, I have you covered.

I will guide you through these playoffs by giving you daily study materials. That homework consists of previewing each game with some bets I like for the daily slate.

That is the school bell, which can only mean one thing.

Class is back in session!

Here are my favorite bets for Friday's game, with odds via FOX Bet (times are ET).

Juan Soto and Brandon Drury propel the Padres to take the lead 7-4 against the Phillies

San Diego Padres (Joe Musgrove) at Philadelphia Phillies (Eugenio Suarez), 7:30 p.m. (FS1 and the FOX Sports App)

Let’s go back to one of the very first lessons we discussed in this class: If your batting average (BA) is lower than your expected batting average (xBA), then you may be due for positive regression to the mean. If you look solely at the Padres and Phillies and how they performed since the trade deadline, two of the four biggest underperformers are Juan Soto and Josh Bell.

It would not make sense for two players, who had top 50 expected batting averages in the first half of the season, to entirely fall apart despite going to a good situation in San Diego. At some point, they were going to improve, and they did in Game 2 of the NLCS, combining for four hits, three RBI and four hard-hit balls.

Soto and Bell will now face Ranger Suarez, who uses a sinker and changeup combination to keep the ball down. He doesn’t give up a lot of hard-hit balls, but seeing-eye singles and patient walks may be how to score runs in Game 3. Luckily for the Padres, Soto is capable of both.

I like the parlay of Soto recording a run and the Padres winning. As for the Phillies, who will face a variety of pitches thrown by Joe Musgrove, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber do have lifetime expected batting averages of greater than .380 with a negative BA – xBA difference. These are small sample sizes, but it’s enough for me to lean Schwarber and Harper to record a hit each and more than enough for me to like the Phillies to cover the one run.

PICK: Parlay Soto to record a run, Padres to win (+210 on FOX Bet)
PICK: Schwarber and Harper to each record a hit (+135 on FOX Bet)
PICK: Phillies run line (+1, -143 on FOX Bet)

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.