Major League Baseball

MLB playoff odds: Best bets for Astros-Yankees, Padres-Phillies

Updated Oct. 23, 2022 12:14 a.m. ET

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

The Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros are one victory away from advancing to the World Series as the MLB league championship series continues Sunday.

The San Diego Padres in the National League and the New York Yankees in the American League look to stay alive by forcing another game with a win.

From a betting perspective, I will guide you through these playoffs by giving you daily study materials. That homework consists of previewing each game with some bets I like for the daily slate.

That is the school bell, which can only mean one thing.

Class is back in session!

Here are my favorite bets for Sunday's games, with odds via FOX Bet (all times ET).

Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, and Nick Castellanos help the Phillies take the lead 8-6

Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos shine for the Philadelphia Phillies against the San Diego Padres on Saturday.

San Diego Padres (Yu Darvish) at Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler), 2:37 p.m. (FS1)

It’s a rematch of Game 1 of this series, where both Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler had quality outings, going seven innings and combining for 15 strikeouts.

While the temptation may be to assume another low-scoring game, consider this: The Phillies totaled nine hard-hit balls (95-plus mph exit velocity) against Darvish. They also made contact on 82% of Darvish’s cutters that were in the zone, 78% of his fastballs and 67% of his sliders.

To compare, most of Wheeler’s pitches were fastballs, and Padres sluggers made contact on 83% of those pitches in the zone; and 75% outside the zone.

There will be opportunities for these great hitting lineups to make good contact and send the ball deep. This is a regression to the mean game. Just like what we saw Saturday night, I like the Over.

PICK: Padres-Phillies Over 6.5 combined runs scored (-120 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $18.33 total)

Houston Astros (Lance McCullers Jr.) at New York Yankees (Nestor Cortes), 7:07 p.m. (TBS)

I’ve never believed that if a team is up 3-0 in a series, regardless of the sport, the team trailing would automatically give up.

When you are betting, treat the players, coaches and managers like professionals. More often than not, the team leading the series is drastically better, and, at least offensively, that’s what we have seen.

While looking at the expected batting average, Houston is more than 30 points better than the Yankees this postseason, and the Astros have approximately four more runs of run value. Metrics that include power say it’s less lopsided, but in the postseason and when the weather gets colder and relief pitchers can include starters, offensive versatility matters.

New York does have a lower batting average minus expected batting average difference. Hence, I expect a tight game, but given the Yankees are favored, there’s value in the Astros winning the game.

PICK: Astros (moneyline +105 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $20.50 total) to win outright

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.