Major League Baseball

MLB playoff odds: Best bets for Yankees-Astros

Published Oct. 20, 2022 3:09 p.m. ET

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

The New York Yankees are looking for vengeance after the Houston Astros stole Game 1 of the MLB American League championship series on Wednesday. As usual, I have you covered on Game 2 from a betting perspective.

I will guide you through these playoffs by giving you daily study materials. That homework consists of previewing each game with some bets I like for the daily slate.

That is the school bell, which can only mean one thing.

Class is back in session!

Here are my favorite bets for Thursday's games, with odds via Fox Bet (all times ET).

Jeremy Peña crushes a solo homer to extend the Astros' lead to 4-1 against the Yankees

New York Yankees (Luis Severino) at Houston Astros (Framber Valdez), 7:30 p.m. (TBS)

You could argue no two starting pitchers could be any more different this postseason than what we’ll see in Game 2 of the ALCS. For a musical metaphor, Luis Severino is heavy metal, Framber Valdez is smooth jazz. The Yankees starter relies on his four-seam fastball that averages 96 mph. Then, when he wants to take something off his deliveries, he’ll go to his slider, which averages an expected 85 mph.

Houston should expect two things from Severino: a ton of velocity that will find the strike zone and a short stint. Only four times did the Yankee hurler go beyond six innings. I expect Severino to perform well until he faces Yordan Alvarez, a left-handed hitter who’s one of the better sluggers when a pitch is in the center of the strike zone. My lean is Alvarez hitting a home run (+240 on FOX Bet).

For the groundball pitcher to end all groundball pitchers, Framber Valdez keeps his sinker and curveball down to where all the action stays in the infield. Even though his average exit velocity is one of the slower marks in baseball, it is possible to make good contact if he misses in the center of the strike zone. Valdez has allowed seven home runs in the center and outside to righties, one of which was to Giancarlo Stanton in June.

Valdez is virtually unhittable on his good days, but he is facing a ball club that ranks fourth in expected weighted on-base average against curveballs and sinkers. I like the Yankees to score more than 2.5 runs.

PICK: Yankees team total Over 2.5 runs (-143 at FOX Bet)

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!