MLB playoff watch: X-factors for every contender
An X-factor can be the difference between a strong push for the playoffs or seeing contention slip away. Though there are many elements involved in teams reaching the postseason, every MLB club has a player who emerges down the stretch as the piece that helped put them over the top.
With the All-Star break officially behind us, let's examine one second-half X-factor for every playoff contender.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Cleveland Guardians (58-37; 1st in Central): UTIL Angel Martínez
Even though it's been an extremely small sample size, Martínez has so far excelled everywhere manager Steven Vogt has put him. Whether he's DHing, playing second, third, or any of the three outfield spots, Martínez's bat hasn't slowed down since his June 22 major-league debut. The Guardians have been waiting for one of their young players to break out, and Martínez (Cleveland's No. 9 top prospect per MLB Pipeline) might just be the answer. His bat has been a game-changer for the Guardians — the 22-year-old has been their second-best hitter, after Steven Kwan, since he came on the scene.
If the rookie can remain productive through July, the front office might reconsider how to navigate the trade deadline. One of their needs, either the middle infield or the outfield, could be solved in-house with the emergence of Martínez. — Thosar
Baltimore Orioles (58-38; 1st in East): Their farm system
Baltimore's loaded farm system truly is the X-factor that is expected to net the organization a huge return ahead of this year's trade deadline. The Orioles have several pieces who could be traded for, say, someone like White Sox coveted starter Garrett Crochet. And even if they don't end up parting with top prospects to improve the roster, they can just promote some of their young minor-league stars and see what they can provide in The Show.
Third baseman Coby Mayo could be on the trading block or in the conversation for a promotion depending on how the Orioles maneuver the trade deadline. But the O's are already serious World Series contenders, so they don't necessarily have to make a deadline move. Their second-half decisions, and perhaps strengths, will be guided by the glut of prospects in that enviable farm. — Thosar
New York Yankees (58-40; 1st wild card): DH Giancarlo Stanton
Though fans like to give him a hard time for his baserunning and plethora of ugly strikeouts, we've seen just how important Stanton is to the Yankees offense after he landed on the IL with a hamstring strain in June. The offense has struggled without Stanton's production in the middle of the lineup, and it typically takes Judge and/or Soto to bail them out. Stanton was enjoying his best season since 2021 before he — inevitably — was injured. His health is paramount in the second half and down the stretch, especially since he's often New York's most lethal weapon in October.
Honorable mention goes to Luis Gil, who has been excellent and might soon continue that run in the bullpen. But the Yankees need their offense to step up, and that could start with Stanton's return from injury. — Thosar
Minnesota Twins (54-42; 2nd wild card): SP Pablo López
It looked like López was getting back on track with two solid outings (one earned run across 14 innings pitched) to end his June, but he regressed again in July and finished the first half with a 5.11 ERA. It could be that López has been unlucky, because his 3.84 FIP and .293 xwOBA tell us he is underachieving. Either way, the Twins would love it if the ace-level quality of pitches that López typically throws finally shows up in the second half. As things stand, Minnesota is in the bottom-third of the league in starting pitching ERA, and a breakout from Lopez would help the club create more distance in the wild-card standings, if not push for the AL Central crown. — Thosar
Boston Red Sox (53-42; 3rd wild card): 1B Triston Casas
Getting Casas back in the middle of the order will be a major boost to the Red Sox's production at first base and, as long as he's healthy, help them stay afloat in the wild-card race. Since Casas hit the injured list with a fractured rib on April 20, Boston first basemen have ranked 30th in the majors in terms of wRC+ (63) and slugging (.297), with -1.1 WAR at the corner infield position to boot.
Casas is only now beginning to take dry swings, and with the amount of rehab he likely still has on his docket, it appears he's weeks away from a return. But his production (six home runs, .857 OPS, 22 games) before he got injured this year was indicative of a major breakout season. If Casas rejoins the team soon after the trade deadline, and the Red Sox acquire key upgrades, the organization will be in excellent shape down the stretch. — Thosar
Kansas City Royals (52-45; 2.0 GB of wild card): 1B Vinnie Pasquantino
Speaking of first basemen, Pasquantino is a big part of the Royals offense, but if he could have a stronger second half, he could be the piece that finally boosts some of their numbers at the plate. Pasquantino is elite at avoiding whiffs, with the second-lowest strikeout rate (13%) among all MLB first basemen. Now, he needs to get his slugging up, closer to what it resembled in his 2022 rookie season.
The 26-year-old is finally about to enjoy his first full-season in the majors, and he could be primed for a strong second half based on the slight jump in his expected numbers. If Pasquantino can make some adjustments and begin parking some balls into the seats, Kansas City could be back in the playoffs for the first time since winning the World Series in 2015. — Thosar
Seattle Mariners (52-46; 1st in West): OF Julio Rodríguez
As always, the Mariners could use a big second half from their star center fielder to give them that extra push in the standings. The Astros are beginning to close in on Seattle just as J-Rod typically begins to heat up. In each of his two previous seasons, Rodríguez has performed significantly better after the All-Star break than he did in the cooler months of ball. For his career, he boasts a .306 average and .939 OPS in the second half compared to a .261 average and .733 OPS in the first. His expected slugging numbers this year are better than what he's producing at the plate, and Seattle will need whatever contribution its offense can provide down the stretch to fend off the always sneaky Astros. — Thosar
Houston Astros (50-46; 1.0 GB in West, 3.5 GB of wild card): OF Kyle Tucker
Replacing someone like Tucker, who had the second-best wRC+ (173) and WAR (3.2) among right fielders before sustaining a shin contusion on June 3, is a monumental task. All the Astros can do is try to stay afloat while their best hitter continues to rehab. Fortunately for Houston, the rest of the offense in recent weeks has started hitting again, and it's helped the club become a threat to win the AL West again. Tucker's rehab is interesting in that he's not progressing as quickly as the Astros had originally hoped, and his timeline to return is still unclear. The outfielder is a significant part of Houston's offense, and the club will ultimately need him back and producing the way he was to be a title contender again. — Thosar
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia Phillies (62-34; 1st in East): C J.T. Realmuto
The Philly catcher, with knee surgery behind him, is expected to return to his usual post soon and the club will welcome the security he provides, particularly behind the plate. The pitching staff's team ERA increased in the month-plus that Realmuto spent on the injured list. Since a healthy Realmuto — lauded as the game's most durable catcher over the past decade — typically only takes one day off per week, Phillies pitchers will welcome the regained regularity in the second half.
As far as his offensive production, it's clear Realmuto has started declining at the plate in his mid-30s. A career .272 hitter with a .782 OPS, Realmuto has batted .261 with a career-low .720 OPS and seven home runs this year. He also stole just one bag in the 51 games before his knee surgery, which was atypical for him. But he's still a difference-maker on both sides of the ball, and his presence in the Phillies lineup will only make one of MLB's top offenses that much more threatening. — Thosar
Los Angeles Dodgers (56-41; 1st in West): SP Clayton Kershaw
We haven't seen Kershaw throw a pitch since the Diamondbacks burned the southpaw for six earned runs while he recorded just one out in Game 1 of the NLDS last year. One month later, the 36-year-old underwent shoulder surgery, and now he's finally completing rehab outings and inching closer to his much-anticipated 2024 debut. Given the lack of cohesion in the Dodgers' rotation of late, it will be imperative for Kershaw to return to form and bring some stability. Fortunately for L.A., its longtime ace has excelled in the face of injuries. Since 2018, Kershaw has dealt with at least one significant injury each year — and still managed to post a 2.77 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over that six-year stretch. Why should this season be any different? Expect Kershaw to be dominant when he returns from injury this year, too. — Thosar
Milwaukee Brewers (55-42; 1st in Central): RP Devin Williams
Williams, the two-time winner of the NL Reliever of the Year award, is nearing the end of his recovery from two stress fractures in his back that have sidelined him since spring training. The Brewers relief unit has done well without Williams, registering the fifth-best bullpen in MLB with a 3.37 ERA. But that bullpen was forced to make up a lot of ground without Williams, too, throwing the second-most innings in the majors in his absence. Furthermore, there's no telling whether Williams' back injury will linger, as it did after the original time he felt pain back in September, once he returns to the mound. He is expected to take over closing duties by the end of this month, which should be a boon to the first-place Brewers. — Thosar
Atlanta Braves (53-42; 1st wild card): 1B Matt Olson
This struggling, Ronald Acuña-less Atlanta offense could use a major boost from the 2023 version of Olson right now. The first baseman who led MLB in home runs and RBIs last year has hit just 13 jacks and carries a career-low .420 slugging percentage through 91 games. He was 64% better than the average major-league hitter last year, and has now plummeted to a 106 OPS+. It looked like Olson was turning his season around in May, when he climbed to a .797 OPS in 27 games that month. But the results didn't last. Olson's OPS dropped to .747 in June, and then to .633 so far in July. If Olson heats up, he can be the difference that pushes Atlanta's offense to the top again. — Thosar
St. Louis Cardinals (50-46; 2nd wild card): 3B Nolan Arenado
St. Louis turned its season around in May and has essentially never looked back. The Cardinals are in possession of a playoff spot — all before they've even played at full strength. If Arenado can find his power, which has been the most concerning aspect in his overall drop in production, that would alleviate some of the concerns the Cardinals have about their right-handed bats. It would also give the front office a better idea of how it should handle the trade deadline. Arenado understands the pressure is on him, and Paul Goldschmidt, to produce closer to their career numbers, and St. Louis playing better of late should only help. — Thosar
New York Mets (49-46; 3rd wild card): SP Kodai Senga
The Mets rotation was surprisingly decent in the first half without their ace. Since Jorge López declared the Mets the worst team in baseball on May 29 and the team held a players' only meeting, the rotation's 3.95 ERA is sixth-best in MLB. Getting Senga back should create some needed stability in the starting five — or six. The Amazins plan to shift to a six-man rotation once Senga returns, which could come with its own concerns about how the rest of the staff adjusts. But as long as Senga is as dominant as he was in his rookie year, the Mets' pitching staff is only going to get stronger. — Thosar
Arizona Diamondbacks (49-48; 1.0 GB of wild card): SP Eduardo Rodríguez
After their surprising run to the World Series, the D-backs retooled this offseason to put their rotation in a better place ... at least in theory. Thus far, it hasn't panned out. Jordan Montgomery, coming off his championship run, has a 6.44 ERA. Merrill Kelly hasn't pitched since April. Zac Gallen missed nearly all of June. And Rodríguez, coming off a terrific year in Detroit, has yet to make his Arizona debut due to a lingering lat injury. By next month, Rodríguez (and others) should be back in action, which could do wonders for an Arizona rotation that needs the help. — Kavner
San Diego Padres (50-49; 1.0 GB of wild card): INF Xander Bogaerts
With Fernando Tatís Jr. out until August, Luis Arráez and Manny Machado playing through some bumps and bruises — and slightly deprived of rest days — Bogaerts' imminent return comes at a great time for San Diego. The Padres are surging, and they certainly can't afford to slow down now. Bogaerts can help add to their ascent, provided it might take some time for him to get back into a groove after seeing some more live pitching. The shortstop-turned-second baseman has been sidelined with a shoulder fracture since May 20. The 31-year-old was off to a slow start to begin the year, but had put together a six-game hitting streak with two home runs before he hit the injured list. — Thosar
Pittsburgh Pirates (48-48; 1.5 GB of wild card): SS Oneil Cruz
The Pirates' offense has been about as uninspiring as their starting pitching has been exceptional. Outside of All-Star Bryan Reynolds, there's not a ton to get excited about in the lineup. Cruz at least has the tools to change that. After last year's devastating ankle injury, it was difficult to know exactly what to expect from the 25-year-old shortstop. Thus far, it's been similar to what we saw when he finished sixth in Rookie of the Year voting two years ago: a lot of hard hits, a lot of speed, a lot of arm strength ... and a lot of whiffing and chasing that limit his upside. Cruz has the fifth-highest strikeout rate among all qualified MLB hitters, which might be a bit too high for him to be considerably more than a league-average hitter, especially given his struggles against left-handed pitching. Still, he has started to turn it on in July, and his expected stats are better than his actual numbers this year, suggesting potentially better days ahead. — Kavner
Cincinnati Reds (47-50; 3.0 GB of wild card): OF TJ Friedl
The Reds lead the majors in steals, in large part because self-proclaimed "fastest man in the world" Elly De La Cruz is in the midst of a potentially historic season, but a middling Cincinnati offense would look a lot more dynamic if Friedl could stay on the field. Friedl's breakout last year — 18 homers, 27 steals and an .819 OPS — has been followed by aches and pains. He has played in only 26 games this year, going to the injured list three separate times for a fractured wrist, a fractured thumb and, currently, a hamstring strain. He is expected back before month's end, which will be a welcome addition for a Reds outfield that currently sports a combined .702 OPS. Also keep an eye here on Matt McLain, who was one of the best rookies in baseball last year and could return from shoulder surgery before year's end. — Kavner
San Francisco Giants (47-50; 3.0 GB of wild card): SP Blake Snell
Pick any team from the NL West, and the health of the rotation is probably the biggest X-factor. The Giants are no exception. Alex Cobb, Robbie Ray and Keaton Winn could all return from injury in the second half, but the ceiling of that group will be much higher if Snell can build off his last two starts of the month. After signing late, struggling mightily and dealing with adductor and groin strains, Snell put together his best two starts as a Giant before the break. On Sunday, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner retired the first 18 batters he faced against the Twins. In two July starts, he has allowed just two hits and three walks in 12 scoreless innings. It's an encouraging trend for a pitcher who tends to turn it on in the second half and whose FIP (3.78) this year is much more palatable than his actual ERA (6.31). — Kavner
Chicago Cubs (47-51; 3.5 GB of wild card): OF Cody Bellinger
Not breaking any news here, but the Cubs need more pop if they want to contend. Their offense ranks in baseball's bottom 10 in slugging, and while a number of key contributors started to get hot before the break — Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch among them — a more powerful second half from Bellinger would go a long way toward more sustainable success for a Cubs team still trying to claw its way back to .500. Bellinger is currently sidelined with a fractured finger and has regressed offensively this year with some concerning underlying metrics, but with a player option after the season, there is additional incentive to finish off strong. — Kavner
Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, L.A. Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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