Major League Baseball

MLB Playoff Watch: Ranking the lineups of every contender

Updated Sep. 27, 2023 4:17 a.m. ET

Entering the final week of the regular season, some of baseball's top offenses are fighting for their postseason lives. Others are still looking to get healthy or find their peak form.

With a week to go, we can't answer how it'll all shake out — but we can predict which contenders will offer the most fearsome and formidable lineups should they reach the playoffs.

(Note: Only teams within three games of a playoff spot entering the final week of the regular season were considered for this week's rankings.)

BACK OF THE PACK

T-14) Milwaukee Brewers (88-68, 1st in NL Central)
T-14) Miami Marlins (81-75, 1.0 game back of NL wild card)

Both of these teams have taken major strides on offense of late, an especially important trend for a Marlins team missing some of its top arms. For the Brewers, William Contreras and Mark Canha have been hugely productive additions this year. But their offense's ceiling will depend on Christian Yelich, who's had a bounce-back year, and Willy Adames, who has not. It remains to be seen if the recent uptrend — or the .705 OPS on the year — will carry into the postseason.

The Marlins have the seventh-best OPS in baseball this month — but the 19th-best mark overall this season. Getting Jorge Soler back adds some needed pop to this lineup, which is largely dependent on the production of Luis Arráez and exceptional deadline addition Jake Burger, both of whom were playing some of their best baseball before getting dinged up Sunday. They need both of them healthy and a boost from Jazz Chisholm Jr., who's hitting around league average this year, to make a run.

13) Seattle Mariners (84-71, 0.5 games back of AL wild card)

Will Julio Rodríguez's offensive explosion be enough to get this team to October? After their tremendous second-half run, the Mariners are struggling to score again in September. Cal Raleigh and Teoscar Hernández can provide some pop, but J.P. Crawford remains their second-most productive hitter.

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12) Arizona Diamondbacks (82-73, NL wild card No. 2)

Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Christian Walker give this group a much better trio than most of the teams at the back end of this contender list. Carroll is, of course, the likely NL Rookie of the Year, one of the 10 most valuable players this season by FanGraphs' version of wins above replacement. Walker enjoyed a second straight 30-homer season, though he's struggled of late. How the complementary offensive pieces perform — guys such as Tommy Pham, Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel — could determine Arizona's October fate.

GRAND CENTRAL

11) Cincinnati Reds (80-77, 2.5 games back of NL wild card)

This is a team reliant on its offense and young talent to reach the postseason — and that offense has a .715 OPS in the second half, which ranks 20th in the majors. The dazzling Elly De La Cruz hasn't looked the same in September, but rookies Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are doing everything in their power to keep Cincinnati in the race. The return of Matt McLain this week could provide another spark.

10) Minnesota Twins (83-73, clinched AL Central)
9) Chicago Cubs (82-74, NL wild card No. 3)

Both of these teams had an offense that ranked in the bottom half of baseball in the season's first half — and a top-six offense since.

Each possesses a plethora of players hitting at least slightly above league average this year. After an exceptionally disappointing first half for a Twins offense expected to do much more, they've turned things around since the break as one of five teams with an OPS over .800 — an amazing feat considering the struggles and health concerns of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Unfortunately, Royce Lewis, who has led that charge, is out with another injury now. Their offensive upside depends on their health.

Cody Bellinger's tremendous comeback campaign, which deserves all the accolades, might have made a phenomenal season from Seiya Suzuki fly under the radar. Suzuki's recent production has been crucial as the Cubs try to hold onto a wild-card spot. There's plenty of pop in this outfield between those two and Ian Happ, each of whom have an OPS over .800 this month. Still, they need to get Bellinger swinging a hot bat again in October after a recent slide.

EAST, NOT LEAST

8) Toronto Blue Jays (87-69, AL wild card No. 2)
7) Tampa Bay Rays (95-62, AL wild card No. 1)
6) Baltimore Orioles (97-59, 1st in AL East)

Most would've expected this grouping to be flipped entering the season.

The talent on the Blue Jays' offense is undeniable — but so is the disappointing production. This group just hasn't hit the way everyone expected. George Springer is in the midst of his worst offensive season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., despite playing in 150 games, ranks 37th in the majors in home runs. Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman are both hitting below league average in the season's second half. A team featuring those guys probably shouldn't have the same OPS as the Angels. On an encouraging note, Guerrero, Springer and Bichette all homered Sunday. Maybe the breakout comes in October — should they hold on.

Things have gone much better in Tampa Bay and Baltimore this year, though the Rays haven't been able to replicate their sensational first-half production without All-Star Wander Franco. Now, they continue absorbing losses. Brandon Lowe is probably out for the year. Jose Siri and Luke Raley are questionable for the postseason. Even scarier, All-Stars Randy Arozarena and Yandy Díaz both left games this weekend, though neither seem likely to be long-term losses. Isaac Paredes, Josh Lowe and Harold Ramirez have all been productive players this year, but the Rays need to get healthy.

On the contrary, Baltimore has all its hosses. Gunnar Henderson is the Rookie of the Year favorite. Adley Rutschman has the highest on-base percentage of any qualified catcher and is slugging over .500 in September. Ryan O'Hearn is, too. In a deep outfield, Austin Hays is an All-Star, Anthony Santander has launched 27 homers, and Aaron Hicks has been a tremendous addition. Ryan Mountcastle, who has led the team with a .900 OPS in the second half, should be back soon. The Orioles have to get Cedric Mullins going, but there's enough depth here to keep the sprinkler celebrations from sputtering.

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REIGNING CHAMPS

5) Philadelphia Phillies (87-69, NL wild card No.1)
4) Houston Astros (85-71, AL wild card No. 3)

Surprisingly, neither of last year's World Series foes boasted a top-10 offense in the season's first half. That has since changed dramatically.

For the Phillies, there were lengthy stretches in which Brandon Marsh, Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm were carrying a middling group. Things turned as Bryce Harper got healthier, Kyle Schwarber got to launching, and Trea Turner started to sizzle. The Braves are the only team with more homers than the Phillies since the break, and now both Harper and Nick Castellanos are swinging hot bats at the right time. Philadelphia will have to hope the last week for Turner was nothing more than a blip in an otherwise explosive past two months, but this group brings serious upside.

So do the Astros, which made their meager .723 OPS in the season's first half — which ranked 17th in baseball — so concerning. Jeremy Peña couldn't build on his breakout postseason; José Abreu couldn't find his power; José Altuve, Michael Brantley, Yordan Álvarez couldn't stay healthy; Alex Bregman couldn't find his form. Fast-forward a couple months, and Altuve and Álvarez have helped restore order to a healthier offense that's been the most powerful in the American League since the All-Star break; shockingly, particularly considering how healthy the Astros have gotten, that might not be enough.

HIT OR GO HOME

3) Texas Rangers (87-68, 1st in AL West)
2) Los Angeles Dodgers (95-59, clinched NL West)

With all the attention on their new-look rotation entering the year, it is the Rangers' offense guiding them toward what could be their first playoff appearance since 2016. Led by Corey Seager, who will probably finish second in the majors with an OPS north of 1.000 on the year, they're going to finish the season as the top offense in the American League. Adolis García leads the team in homers and RBI.

Hits leader Marcus Semien has played in every game and hasn't slowed down a beat. All-Stars Josh Jung and Jonah Heim are healthy and hitting again. Both Mitch Garver and Leody Taveras have made vital September contributions. Now, Evan Carter is demonstrating why he's a top-10 prospect. They may not have the name recognition of other AL clubs, but overlook them at your own peril.

Unlike most years, the Dodgers' offense will also have to pave their team's starting pitching-starved path through October. Having arguably the best 1-2 duo ever assembled atop a lineup will help. Mookie Betts is the first leadoff hitter to knock in 105 runs in a season and is one homer shy of tying Alfonso Soriano's single-season record for home runs to lead off a game (13). Freddie Freeman has his first career 20/20 season, his first career 200-hit season and leads the majors in doubles … by 15. That duo will guide the offense, but Max Muncy, Will Smith and J.D. Martinez provide plenty of pop behind them. Plus, there's enough talent in the outfield to find another playoff spark from a group that includes rookie standout James Outman and resurgent veteran Jason Heyward.

JUST PEACHY

1) Atlanta Braves (100-56, clinched NL East)

As if there were any other choice. Name an offensive stat, and the Braves probably lead. They're at the top in every slash-line category. They've scored more runs than any team. They have the most homers in baseball … by 59. They're on pace to become the first team since baseball's integration to finish a season with a slugging percentage of .500 or better. They haven't stolen the most bases … but they employ the player who has. Ronald Acuña Jr. is two steals away from an unheard of 40/70 season in what will likely be an MVP year. Matt Olson has the most homers and RBI in the game. The Braves have five different players who've hit 30 homers and seven who've hit 20. They have six different starters with an OPS over .800. This is, unquestionably, the most formidable, flawless lineup in the game. And after some significant hits to the rotation, Atlanta's offensive prowess becomes all the more vital.

Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and MLB as a whole for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers' editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.