Major League Baseball

Who will stay, who will go? Predicting trade fate of stars such as Kimbrel, Scherzer, Story

Updated Jul. 29, 2021 3:26 p.m. ET

By Pedro Moura
FOX Sports MLB Writer

Only a couple of days remain until Friday’s 4 p.m. ET MLB trade deadline.

Rumors abound. Let’s take a closer look at what we can comfortably predict about this year’s festivities.

Players who will be traded

RHP Craig Kimbrel, Chicago Cubs
Kimbrel is not a true rental reliever, but his contract is structured in such a way that his employer will only be saddled with his $16 million salary in 2022 if he dominates over the next couple of months. And if he dominates over the next couple of months, like he has so far this season, his employer will probably be in pretty good position. So it’s a win-win. And, if the Cubs are putting into motion a shorter-term rebuild, it doesn’t make much sense to keep a closer like Kimbrel. More likely is they shed his salary and take back a nice package from, say, the San Diego Padres, or almost any other contender.

3B/1B/OF Kris Bryant, Cubs
Bryant is a superstar name, and he is producing again, albeit not quite at a superstar level. It has been four years since anyone named him on an MVP ballot. His value is actually rooted more in competency and versatility, but that’s plenty attractive to teams like the Tampa Bay Rays, Philadelphia Phillies, and New York Mets. The Cubs hope the competition boosts someone’s offer to an enticing level, because Bryant, an impending free agent, is only coming back to Chicago on a road trip in 2022.

2B/3B Eduardo Escobar, Arizona Diamondbacks
Now, there’s some small chance the Cubs don’t actually trade Kimbrel or Bryant. There’s almost no chance the Diamondbacks don’t trade Escobar. He is a good, versatile player having a nice season on a reasonable, expiring contract for a team that has absolutely no chance of qualifying for postseason play. This will be the third deadline-week deal of his career, after 2012 and 2018. The Chicago White Sox make the most sense ⁠— and have for a month ⁠— since Nick Madrigal tore his hamstring. He is their second baseman of the future. Escobar can be their second baseman of the present.

RHP Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies
Gray is a sensible choice, one of the best options available for the several teams seeking rotation stability. He offers a little more upside than Tyler Anderson, whom the Phillies nearly acquired Tuesday from the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he’s earning a reasonable sum. Unfortunately, Gray is not the type of Colorado pitcher who is more successful away from Coors Field, but he is generally competent. The Mets would be one fit.

Others: RHP Ian Kennedy, Texas Rangers; RHP Mychal Givens, Rockies; RHP Michael Pineda, Minnesota Twins

Players who might be traded

SS Trevor Story, Rockies
Story is in a fascinating place. He is highly unlikely to re-sign in Colorado at season’s end, but, if he is not traded, the Rockies could extend him a qualifying offer and recoup some compensation. If he were playing to his ordinary level, that wouldn’t make much sense, but Story has sufficiently declined offensively and defensively this season that it might actually be the best decision. Complicating matters, few contending teams need a shortstop, and Story has never played another position in the majors. But the New York Yankees exist, and they might make sense.

OF Joey Gallo, Rangers
Gallo has overtaken his friend and fellow Las Vegas native Kris Bryant as a bigger bat, but he lacks Bryant’s defensive versatility. He is a better defender at the one position he does play, right field, and he is under team control for one last season in 2022. The arbitration system has not been kind to Gallo, so his salary will still be significantly under market value next year. Will the Rangers trade him? Not unless they are receiving impact prospects. The Toronto Blue Jays are reportedly interested, but they would be better off pushing their prospect chips toward pitching.

2B/OF Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals
The Royals probably should have traded Merrifield a year or two ago, as he is now 32 and down from his past peaks. But he’s still versatile, and he’s still under club control for a while. He also has one truly top-of-the-line skill: his baserunning. This is the third time in five years he’s leading the American League in stolen bases, and this year he is doing it at an amazing 96% success rate. The Seattle Mariners are reportedly interested, and he’d be a nice fit.

RHP Kyle Gibson, Rangers
In terms of 2021 results, it’s unlikely that any more successful pitcher gets traded this week. The problem with Gibson and his 2.87 ERA is it is not clear how much those results really say about the pitcher he truly is. He will turn 34 during the playoffs. He doesn’t throw particularly hard, or strike out many people, or really limit his walks. Unsustainable homer suppression is behind his string of success. He does only one thing very well: take the ball when it is offered to him. That’s a valuable skill, especially this year, as pitching staffs league-wide have been wrecked by injury. But will the Rangers accept the sort of commensurate mid-tier prospect return? That’s what will determine whether he is dealt.

Others: 2B Jonathan Schoop, Detroit Tigers; RHP Daniel Hudson, Washington Nationals

Players who could, but probably won’t, be traded

RHP Max Scherzer, Nationals
If there is a more successful pitcher than Gibson traded, it will be Scherzer. He is newly 37, but little about him indicates he is falling off a cliff. His fastball is still within 1 mph of where it was during his rookie year, 13 years ago. Home runs are the only reason he hasn’t been even more dominant this season. Scherzer is reportedly willing to waive his no-trade privileges if he is sent to the West Coast, which pits the Los Angeles Dodgers, Padres and San Francisco Giants in a compelling competition for the services of a potential wild-card game starter. Two of them are probably going to be playing in it. Will one of them have Scherzer?

SS Trea Turner, Nationals
Turner would be the best player traded. Since the start of the 2020 season, amounting to a normal year’s worth of games, he is hitting .326, with 30 homers, 33 stolen bases and a .923 OPS. By FanGraphs’ measures, he has been the second-best position player in baseball in that span, behind only Fernando Tatis Jr. He is under control for another year after this one. If you’re finding it hard to imagine Nationals GM Mike Rizzo trading him, you’re not the only one. But, yes, a lot of teams are interested.

1B Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
It’s rare you’ll find a better deadline fit than Rizzo and the Boston Red Sox make this year. Consider that the Red Sox originally drafted and signed Rizzo in 2007. But it takes two to tango, and the Cubs have given fewer indications they are prepared to trade Rizzo than the two Cubs in the earlier category.

SS Javier Báez, Cubs
Yep, there are a lot of Cubs on this list. It’s some wonder they couldn’t contend with this crop of talent. Báez is a particularly compelling trade candidate because it’s still not clear what kind of player he is long-term. He has been both great and awful, and this year he is somewhere in the middle. The Cubs reportedly tried to extend him last year. Would they try again? Would they extend him a qualifying offer? Remember here also what applies to Story: Most of the contenders already have shortstops. It’s hard to make a midseason positional switch for an unspectacular player.

Others: RHP José Berríos, Twins; 1B Eric Hosmer, Padres; LHP Danny Duffy, Royals

Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. He most recently covered the Dodgers for three seasons for The Athletic. Previously, he spent five years covering the Angels and Dodgers for the Orange County Register and Los Angeles Times. More previously, he covered his alma mater, USC, for ESPNLosAngeles.com. The son of Brazilian immigrants, he grew up in the Southern California suburbs. Follow him on Twitter @pedromoura.